A band of 3 to 6 inches of snow fell across portions of Dawson, Gosper, Phelps, and Kearney counties on this Monday. During the evening hours on the 18th, a cyclonic band of precipitation developed east and north of the developing mid-level low.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
A band of 3 to 6 inches of snow fell across portions of Dawson, Gosper, Phelps, and Kearney counties on this Monday. During the evening hours on the 18th, a cyclonic band of precipitation developed east and north of the developing mid-level low. This band of precipitation remained over Kansas. However, a large area of snow developed north of this band over south central Nebraska primarily south of Interstate 80. The northern fringe remained stationary for a time as it pivoted between midnight and 6 AM. The snow then ended as it dropped to the south. The highest amount was 5.5 inches at Johnson Lake. Other amounts include 5 inches at Holdrege, 4 at Minden, and 3-4 inches in and near Lexington.
Lee cyclogenesis occurred over Colorado the day before and this low moved east along the Kansas-Oklahoma border that night. A strong trough progressed east from Colorado and New Mexico with a closed mid-level low forming on the Kansas-Oklahoma state line. This snow developed in a weak area of frontogenesis.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 18, 11:33 PM CST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 We still don't have any new or more conclusive info on how this event will turn out. It's really just a waiting game. As for this eve and tonight...things are currently panning out as expected from the 539 PM update below. Shwrs are slowly beginning to increase over the CWA. The latest hi-res models cont to show pcpn will gradually blossom and expand over most of the CWA after midnight. We remain very concerned about pcpn type. The 00Z LBF sounding shows the atms completely cooled to frzg except the lowest 1400 ft. So once the BL cools...snow will develop with the Nrn and Wrn parts of the CWA having the highest probability for seeing accumulating snow. Dealing with accumulating snow potential is always tough when temp profiles are near frzg and the ground is relatively warm. The diurnal radiation cycle and thickness of the clouds play a role too. Stay tuned. This will be interesting... UPDATE Issued at 539 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Made some fairly substantial chgs to POPs thru midnight based on observational trends. An arc of shwrs currently extends from ODX- AUH-HJH and it is lifting NE. Ltg detection shows there are some embedded rumbles of thunder with 200 J/kg of elevated CAPE. Changed highest POPs to this area and significantly reduced or removed mention of precip thru midnight S and W of this band. The next batch of precip will form over Wrn KS and this is already underway. Once the band N and E of the Tri-Cities moves out of the CWA...there won't be much occurring until the blossoming batch grows over Wrn KS and moves in from the SW. That shouldn't occur until after midnight. Possibly more later as we cont to monitor things evolve. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Snow in some areas on Monday... This is a very complex low confidence forecast with widely diverging forecast models. However, will try to dig through it and give you the most likely outcome while also laying out some of the lower end probabilities that we will need to remain mindful of. The 00Z and 06Z model runs last night were rather aggressive bringing more precipitation including snow into our forecast area for late tonight through Monday. However, we saw the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all cut expected precipitation values especially across south central Nebraska and in some cases the amounts were cut in half. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF also came in a little warmer with little if any accumulating snowfall. However, the 12Z NAM, ARW East, and NMM East were the most aggressive with precipitation and possible snow generally indicating 4 to 8 inches near the Tri- Cities and points just to the west and northwest within some mesoscale banding. A look at many forecast ensemble members indicated max snow amounts anywhere from over 10 inches to zero, which is a pretty significant spread this close to the event. So there are two primary forecast problems hurting confidence right now. First, we are seeing significant model variability and inconsistency from run to run regarding precipitation amounts as noted by the significant drop in precipitation amounts between the 00Z and 12Z runs. Secondly, temperatures at the surface will more than likely be just above freezing throughout the precipitation event generally between 33-36 degrees in the Tri- Cities. A surface temperature of 33 or 34 could allow snow to pile up on grassy and elevated surfaces, while 35 to 36 would likely result in little to no snowfall accumulation. Finally we expect precipitation may form in narrow bands rather than wider areas so that even if most people see little or no snow there could be a county or two wide band of moderate to heavy snow for a period of time that could drop several inches of snow. The locations of these mesoscale bands may be difficult to pinpoint until the storm system is right upon us. Can not in good science call for the high end snowfall amounts given the above freezing sfc temperatures and the downward trend in model precipitation amounts in recent runs. Thus our official forecast will be closer to the low end snowfall amounts from a trace up to 2 inches in the Tri-Cities and points to the west and northwest. However, it needs to be highlighted that this is a low confidence forecast given model uncertainty, and mesoscale banding could result in some noticeably higher snowfall amounts in somewhat narrow bands. Therefore, please keep up to date with the latest forecast updates later this evening and tonight. Timing... Any snow in the Tri-Cities and points west and north would likely be after 4 or 5 AM Monday with the higher probability through late Monday morning. Snow could then mix back with rain or even turn over to rain during the afternoon and might end for a time before trying to turn back over to snow and picking up a bit in the evening as a deformation band pushes from west to east across the forecast area as temperatures fall. Northern Kansas zones should be primarily rain but could turn over to snow Monday evening with the main deformation band as it pushes east. Most snowfall amounts within the evening deformation band will be trace amounts to around 1 inch. Thunderstorm potential... Will continue to include the chance of isolated thunder across our southern most zones, primarily across northern Kansas. However, the elevated instability is very minor and will probably only see a very isolated lightning strike in a couple counties if at all tonight. Came close to pulling mention of thunder out of the forecast, but kept it based on coordination with other offices and can not completely rule out a few strikes. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Snow and rain changing to snow could linger through at least the first half of Monday night. After that we expect dry weather from Tuesday through Thursday with warming temperatures. This time it really should warm up with an upper ridge moving in overhead. We will be bold and call for 60s across most Nebraska counties by Thursday afternoon and maybe some 70s over northern Kansas. Friday through Sunday... We should be mostly dry and mild Friday and Saturday, but with a weak storm system in the area can not completely rule out a rain shower. Perhaps another more impressive upper trough could near the area on Sunday brining with it a better chance of precipitation. Temperatures will highly depend on the track of this system and their could be a sharp temperature gradient in our neighborhood on Sunday, but too far out for much confidence on Sunday temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 LIFR conditions are expected overnight and for a good chunk of Monday as the approaching weather system dynamically cools. A real tossup for precip type between rain, snow, and even sleet and could very well fluctuate overnight into Monday. Visibility will be tough to nail down as this will be dependent on when and where convective cells pop up. Wind will increase Monday during the day as the system heads east. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && UPDATE...Kelley SHORT TERM...Wesely LONG TERM...Wesely AVIATION...Heinlein
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 192100- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight, especially across north central Kansas. A mix of rain and snow is expected to develop late tonight across south central Nebraska with light snowfall accumulations possible as we near dawn. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Periods of rain and snow will continue through Monday night. Light accumulations of wet, slushy snow are possible across portions of the area primarily northwest of a Central City, Clay Center, Alma line. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but any reports of wintry precipitation are always appreciated. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Wesely
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches were reported across the area.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches were reported across the area.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches were reported across the area.
Storm total snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches were reported across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 738901, 738902, 738903, 738904.