High pressure moving in from the west and low pressure moving in from the east combined to tighten the gradient over the eastern Chugach mountains. A strong shortwave moving in from the north enhanced the winds through channeled terrain, taking them to warning level.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
High pressure moving in from the west and low pressure moving in from the east combined to tighten the gradient over the eastern Chugach mountains. A strong shortwave moving in from the north enhanced the winds through channeled terrain, taking them to warning level. This caused some wind damage at Tsaina Lodge.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 19, 4:35 AM AKST, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 535 AM AKDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A cold front racing eastward across Southern Alaska right now is the primary weather maker around the area. Ahead of the front, conditions remain relatively mild, with areas such as Anchorage, Palmer, and points south remaining all rain early this morning. Further north in the Susitna Valley, light snow is being reported in Talkeetna. Behind the front, much cooler mid-level air is racing into Southwest Alaska, bringing with it some patchy fog. Over the Bering, a much more unstable weather regime has set up resulting in widespread cumulus across the region. The timing of when the cold air gets to Anchorage will be critical in determining if morning commuters are dealing with precipitation that is wet or white. In the upper levels, the aforementioned surface cold front is accompanied by a strong jet, which is the reason it is moving so quickly. The frontal passage will result in a pattern change over all of Southern Alaska from the warm and wet pattern with upper level ridging that we have been experiencing, to becoming a cold and dry one with the dominant upper level feature influencing the area becoming a trough. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The models remain in very good agreement through the next couple days. Diminishing forecast uncertainty remains for the rest of this morning as to whether or not the cold air reaches Southcentral in time to change the areas seeing rain over to snow. Behind the front, cold air draining through all of the gaps will result in strong gap winds, and some uncertainty remains as to how strong the winds and gusts will get. However, with a simpler cold, dry pattern imminent across Southern Alaska this morning, forecast confidence is above normal. && .AVIATION... PANC... Steady rain this morning is causing MVFR conditions. Later this morning, a possible changeover to snow may cause brief periods of IFR conditions, along with gusty winds. By this afternoon, the precipitation will clear, returning conditions back to VFR, though gusty west to southwest winds will persist into the evening. Several days of VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming workweek as the pattern turns markedly drier. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... An upper level trough moving over the South Mainland will bring continued precipitation from the Kenai Peninsula northward before all areas quickly clear out over the course of this afternoon. The primary forecast challenge will however be determining precipitation type, especially around Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley this morning. Southeasterly winds along the Chugach Range overnight have kept temperatures warm enough to bring just rain to the area overnight, however as this wind diminishes and cooler air moves back into the area, this is expected to transition to a wet snow for a few hours this morning. This will mostly likely occur during the morning commando, which may be heavy times, however due to the warm temperatures and short duration of the snow most areas should see less than inch of accumulation. Further north over the Susitna Valley temperatures have remained cold enough for just snow, but too warm from Talkeetna southward to bring significant accumulations. As a result the snow advisory remains until noon today, however just for areas north of Talkeetna. This wave will quickly race over Southcentral today, which should allow any snow that develops to end with clearing skies in time for the afternoon commute. The focus then shifts to the strong pressure gradient and cold air advection that sets up behind the upper level low, which is still expected to bring gale force winds to most of the Gulf with strong outflow winds along the North Gulf Coast through Tuesday. The strongest winds are still expected to occur in the Valdez/Thompson Pass area where gusts up to 60 mph are possible as the strongest core of winds push through on Tuesday. Without a strong cold dome to pull from in the Copper River Basin, there is good confidence that these winds should remain below warning level through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... There are a few lingering showers on the King Salmon radar (PAKC) and none on the Bethel radar (PABC). The latest metars at Iliamna and Sparrevohn have been detecting snow this morning. With an abundance of low level moisture, patchy fog will be possible this morning for portions of Southwest. The GFS and the NAM both ping into another shot of moisture today for the Kuskokwim Delta but the southern half of Southwest looks a tad drier. A dome of high pressure will build in from the Eastern Aleutians. With widespread subsidence in place expecting dry conditions on Tuesday and into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... At the surface, the remnants of a low near St. Matthew Island will continue to decay and drift eastward. A dome of high pressure will build over the North Pacific and the Aleutians resulting in a gradual warming trend with locations along the chain getting above 40F. A new low is developing near Kamchatka and it is projected to hug the peninsula bringing another round of gales to Attu Island and Shemya as well as the Western Bering. The jet core steering this low is projected to have the strength of 130+ knots. Anticipating gusty winds and rough seas beginning Tuesday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... The long term begins with ridging dominating the southern mainland with the axis along the west coast. This setup leads to outflow winds along the north Gulf coast which is supported by a shortwave moving through the area. Behind the ridging is a front over the western Bering. Both features will track east through Saturday when the front finally makes it over Southcentral Alaska. The pattern will become more active following the departure of the ridging with a new system moving into the Bering Saturday. The models are in decent agreement through early portions of the long term but struggle further out in time leading to ensembles being preferred later on in the forecast period over the deterministic solutions. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 145. MARINE...Gales 178 185 119 120 121 127 128 130 131 132 351 352 411 412. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS LONG TERM...DK
2 high wind, 1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center reported an avalanche in Hatcher Pass closed the road to the ski area at the top. 10 people were stranded at the ski area for 24 hours while DOT cleared the road. No one was injured.
Thompson Pass RWIS station recorded 89 mph peak gust. Visibility through Thompson Pass was reduced to near blizzard conditions due to blowing snow.
Valdez ASOS reported 72 knots peak wind in the undecoded observation. This was observed by personnel in the tower.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 742275, 742273, 742274.