Montana, 2018

High Wind in Montana, December 30, 2018

December 30, 2018 · NWS TFX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Upper level shortwave energy moves over the region with a Canadian cold front sweeping southward through Montana. Widespread snow and areas of blowing snow develop from northwest to southeast through the morning hours.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

Upper level shortwave energy moves over the region with a Canadian cold front sweeping southward through Montana. Widespread snow and areas of blowing snow develop from northwest to southeast through the morning hours.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 10:55 PM MST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 29, 10:55 PM MST, 2 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1055 PM MST Sat Dec 29 2018

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong and gusty winds continue tonight. A strong Canadian cold
front moves southeast through Montana Sunday, bringing accumulating
snow and blowing snow to much of the region. Very cold temperatures
will persist into Monday before warmer and windy conditions return
by the middle of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Minor updates to the forecast in the short term tonight to reduce
POP over Central Montana until the morning. Still looking like
strong winds through the night with cold frontal passage coming
down through Central Montana around mid morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0555Z.

VFR conditions will gradually worsen to MVFR in clouds, snow, and
blowing snow with mountain obscuration from the northwest around 12Z
along the Hi-Line through 20Z in southwest Montana. Periods of IFR
conditions will then be likely between 15Z and 00Z, especially
across north central and central Montana. A passing Canadian cold
front will trigger these conditions as it shifts the strong and
gusty westerly winds to lighter but still gusty northerly winds.
Mountain wave turbulence and low level wind shear will remain a
concern mainly through 18Z.
Coulston

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MST Sat Dec 29 2018/

Wind gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front have exceeded 90mph
today as a powerful weather system develops over the Northern
Rockies. Surface pressure falls are exceeding 2 mb/hr as the lee-
side trough deepens over Southern Alberta. Scattered areas of rain
or mountain snow have developed amid the moist westerly flow
aloft. Most of the precipitation today has been associated with
warm advection aloft and an embedded upper level disturbance. Wind
gusts will remain strong overnight, but will begin to trend lower
after peaking late this afternoon and evening.

Precipitation intensity increases over the Northern Rockies
tonight, where a winter storm warning is in effect for impacts
associated with the combination of heavy snow and blowing snow.
Travel over Marias Pass will become extremely difficult, to near
impossible through early Sunday, with temporary whiteout
conditions possible.

A strong cold front arrives early Sunday, and advances across the
forecast area from north to south. Although this does shut down
the strong west winds, the frontal passage will produce areas of
snow with a switch to northerly winds. Temperatures will fall
through the day on Sunday across North-central MT as colder air
moves in. The most difficult travel conditions will be encountered
over mountain passes. However, most locations will see at least
light snow. With falling temperatures, roads are expected to
become icy, with some potential for flash freeze, or rapid
development of icy conditions on area roadways. Winter weather
advisories are posted to cover these winter weather impacts.
Snowfall begins to dissipate Sunday night into Monday morning.
There remains some uncertainty regarding the ending time for
snowfall, so some of these advisories may need to be extended a
bit on Monday morning. Temperatures on Monday will become quite
cold, ranging from single digits below zero overnight, to the
teens during the day Monday. PN

New Years Day through Saturday...A major short wave trough moves
eastward, out of the area, as a ridge of higher heights approaches
from the west and becomes the dominant weather driving feature for
the Treasure State. Colder temperatures are replaced with warmer
highs, once again, and subsidence and drying prevail. Wednesday, the
major short wave ridge begins to flatten, and an upper level
disturbance will allow for precipitation to fall along the
Continental Divide. As the ridge flattens, the flow takes on a more
westerly component. Thursday, a North Pacific Low approaches the
west coast of British Columbia and North America, pressing up
against the ridge and resulting in a tightening gradient and strong
cross barrier flow. Additionally, this system will advect moisture
into the area, allowing for more precipitation along the Continental
Divide through Friday. Gusty winds continue through Friday, as well,
with the passage of the major short wave trof. Saturday, expect a
decrease in wind speeds as well as a decrease in temperatures as
highs and lows return to more seasonable ranges for this time of
year. - Fogleman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  34   5  16 /  30  80  80  10
CTB  25  29   3  19 /  50  70  30   0
HLN  30  31   7  18 /  60  70  80   0
BZN  26  33   4  15 /  40  70  60   0
WEY   4  23  -8  11 / 100 100  40  10
DLN  23  30   3  16 /  30  70  50   0
HVR  28  33   1  13 /  40  70  50   0
LWT  29  33   0  10 /  40 100  70  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday Blaine...Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Fergus...
Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday
Broadwater...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Jefferson.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 2 AM MST Monday
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Liberty...Toole.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST
Monday Cascade...Judith Basin...Meagher.

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Toole.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Sunday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 29, 8:58 PM MST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
858 PM MST SAT DEC 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK            48.43N 109.23W
12/29/2018  M69 MPH          BLAINE             MT   PUBLIC

&&
Local storm report, Dec 30, 12:30 AM MST, 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1230 AM MST SUN DEC 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE PENDROY           48.04N 112.20W
12/29/2018  M70 MPH          TETON              MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RICMT, RICE RIDGE - 4 E
            PENDROY.

&&

SAC

Event by event

1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Southern Rocky Mountain Front

When
December 30, 1:05 AM MST
Where
Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet

High wind gust of 57 mph measured at mesonet station mtpnd, pendroy mdt.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 797065.