Scattered storms developed along a stationary front. Some of the storms became severe with several reports of wind damage and a funnel cloud.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Scattered storms developed along a stationary front. Some of the storms became severe with several reports of wind damage and a funnel cloud.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 12:00 PM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018 Updated precipitation chances for forecast area this afternoon through tonight. HRRR and ARW show decent shortwave tracking north northeastward through forecast area with storms developing over south central Missouri and moving through portions of central and northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. As of 17z, 88D is showing activity firing up in this location and tracking northward. Otherwise, remainder of forecast area including St. Louis will be in warm sector with isolated/scattered activity popping up. No major changes to high temperatures for today with highs ranging from the low 60s far north to the mid to upper 80s for portions of east central/southeast Missouri as well as southwestern Illinois. Byrd && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 409 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018 Nearly stationary front extends from near SLO west through STL to just south of JEF early this morning, with a large and strong surface ridge centered over the northern portions of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. Most of the ongoing showers were across parts of northeast and central MO and west central IL north of the front, and in a region of 850 mb moisture convergence on the nose of a 30 knot southwesterly low level jet. This front should move slowly northward today as the surface ridge shifts eastward with more convection expected, mainly along and just north of it. Scattered convection may continue across central and northeast MO and west central IL this morning, then convection should intensify and expand this afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and southwest flow shortwaves continue to move through our area on the backside of the strong upper level ridge centered over the southeastern US. The NAM and ECMWF models look reasonable in finally moving the front north of our forecast area tonight and hence shifting most of the QPF north of our region by late tonight. There may be a few severe storms across central MO this afternoon and early this evening, along with locally heavy rainfall due to high precipitable water values. Could not rule out isolated flash flooding with saturated grounds due to recent rainfall. Will continue to have unseasonably warm temperatures again today across southeast MO and southwest IL, south of the front and in areas which get more daytime heating due to less cloud cover along with less widespread and long lasting precipitation. GKS .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018 The synoptic pattern on Monday morning will feature a highly amplified pattern aloft, with a deep trough ejecting out into the southern Plains and a strong downstream ridge anchored over the eastern seaboard. This regime will flip by the end of the period, as an upper-level trough becomes established over the central and eastern CONUS and a western ridge amplifies over the western seaboard. This will result in a pattern shift for our area and finally a taste of autumn for the region. Monday will begin with a surface front stretching from the central Plains northeastward into Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Missouri and Illinois will be on the warm side of this front, meaning Monday will once again be pushing record temperatures. Given the location of the boundary well off to the north, expect the region to remain dry Monday into Monday night. As the western trough ejects out into the Plains, a lee cyclone will develop and push northeastward Tuesday into Wednesday. In response to the approaching large scale ascent, moisture advection along a developing low-level jet will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm coverage should really increase late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across western and central MO as large-scale forcing for ascent increases due to the approaching trough ejecting out atop the strong surface front. The better juxtaposition of the surface front and the diurnal instability cycle will remain just to the west across portions of eastern KS and western MO. However, given the strong forcing for ascent and favorable low-level moisture profiles, agree with SPC's Day 3 outlook in that a severe threat could push into portions of central and northeast Missouri Tuesday night. The main threat with this line of thunderstorms would be locally damaging winds. The front should continue to surge eastward on Wednesday. The timing of the front will be critical in determining if a severe thunderstorm threat might materialize on Wednesday, with the most favorable location being over extreme eastern MO and IL. However, it does appear by that time the instability parameters will not be as favorable given weak lapse rates, thus will not highlight any severe potential quite yet. The passing front will bring an extended taste of autumn by the end of the week. After highs in the mid/upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday, temperatures by Thursday and Friday may struggle to make it into the 60s! Depending on cloud cover and wind speeds, we may even have to keep an eye on some frost potential late this week into the upcoming weekend. Still plenty of time to lock into the details, but a pattern shift to much cooler weather is certainly on the way! Deitsch && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018 IFR flight conditions over KCOU and KUIN will improve through the afternoon hours as warm front lifts northward through region. Otherwise, main forecast issue will be chances of showers and thunderstorms. As of 17z, storms have already developed and will lift northward through KCOU and KUIN tapering off by 04z Monday. For rest of TAF sites, VFR flight conditions expected with isolated showers and thunderstorms between 20z and 23z this afternoon. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR flight conditions expected across the St. Louis metro area through entire forecast period. Could see isolated showers and thunderstorms develop between 20z and 23z this afternoon, so have vicinity thunderstorm mention in TAFs. Winds to persist from the southeast to south. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 904 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 904 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are likely today mainly across much of central and eastern Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. A few of these storms may be severe this afternoon into the early evening. The main threats will be damaging winds to 60 mph and localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms again on Tuesday, especially Tuesday night. The main threat will be damaging winds to 60 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and into the evening. Tilly
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
248 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0247 PM HEAVY RAIN LAKE MYKEE 38.68N 92.10W
10/07/2018 M1.67 INCH CALLAWAY MO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
TILLYThe St Louis radar (KLSX), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:48 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down two large trees in town.
Thunderstorm winds snapped a large tree in half.
Trained spotters tracked what they thought was a tornado. The spotters recorded the event but the trees along the horizon obscured the bottom of the funnel. NWS St. Louis sent a survey team to the area and could not find any evidence of a tornado, so this has been classified as a funnel cloud.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 788435, 788436, 788437.