Hail in Missouri, June 8, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
322 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

An upper level ridge remains over the Plains this afternoon. An
above normal air mass is also in place across the area as
temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat
index values in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this
evening. A strong storm or two may be possible with winds in
excess of 45mph, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

An upper level disturbance will track south across northern and
eastern Missouri tonight into Saturday. The better chances for
storms will be north and east of the area, but some storms may
clip the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area
tonight into Saturday morning.

Highs on Saturday will once again top out in the upper 80s to the
lower 90s, with heat index values in the middle 90s to around
100.

Drier air will start to work into the area in the mid levels on
Saturday. An isolated storm or two will be possible but the drier
air will limit coverage and most locations should remain dry after
any morning convection pushes out of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

The upper level ridge will nudge east across the region by Sunday
and again allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s. Heat
index values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees will again
occur. Drier air in the mid level will remain in place across the
area on Sunday. This will help to limit thunderstorm develop
potential. An isolated thunderstorm or two will still be possible
though given the increase in instability with the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon.

An upper level trough will track east into the Plains early next
week. This will flatten the ridge and allow slightly cooler
temperatures next week, with highs generally warming into the
middle 80s each afternoon. A front will also move through the
area and could generate some thunderstorms. The area will remain
in a more zonal type flow pattern next week and some periodic
storm chances will be possible at times next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

South to southwesterly winds will prevail across the area this
afternoon through tonight. Winds may be gusty at times this
afternoon.

Diurnal cumulus clouds will occur this afternoon into
early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
this afternoon into this evening, but coverage will be limited and
did not have confidence to include any mention of thunder in the
Tafs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
336 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-092045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
336 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Isolated thunderstorms will develop across portions of the
  Missouri Ozarks late this afternoon into this evening. Wind
  gusts to 60 mph and dime size hail will be possible in a few of
  the strongest storms. Localized brief heavy rainfall and
  occasional cloud ground lightning strikes will occur with any
  storm this afternoon and evening.

  Heat index values in the middle to upper 90s will continue late
  this afternoon into early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
  weekend into next week. Afternoon heat index values in the
  middle 90s to around 100 degrees will occur on a daily
  afternoon basis into next week.

  Scattered thunderstorms will impact the outlook area at times
  on a daily basis. A limited risk for a strong to severe storm
  will be possible but widespread organized severe weather is not
  expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise