Isolated strong thunderstorms developed along a weak cold front that extended from the Great Lakes region to southeast Missouri. The atmosphere was quite unstable, with surface-based capes near 3500 j/kg.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated strong thunderstorms developed along a weak cold front that extended from the Great Lakes region to southeast Missouri. The atmosphere was quite unstable, with surface-based capes near 3500 j/kg. An isolated storm produced a microburst.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:08 PM CST, 4 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 208 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 A cold front stretches across central Illinois and Missouri, with its approach on track and still modeled for fropa tonight. It will encounter an unstable environ with high cape but little energy or shear aloft. Storm chances will wane with the setting sun and as the front passes tonight. After that, it is smooth sailing for a couple of days. It was noted that the blend tries to smooth and put in slight chance pops along mainly our south and southwest border, per the usual. We took that audible mention out and went silent with 14s, for the most part, although diurnal heating/instability may yield an isolated chance in the SEMO Ozarks (western most CWA) Wednesday, so we left that in. The main feature is dew points in the mid 70s today will trim to the upper 60s this time tmrw, and the mid 60s by this time Wed, over the heart of the FA. That'll be a notably welcomed change in the airmass. Similarly, the shave in the mercury rise, to numbers from the mid 80s (north) to near 90 (south), will be a pleasant change to the stifling heat/humidity of recent days. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 Long term period will be domianted by northwesterly flow aloft. This is in response to upper level ridging parking itself over the Desert Southwest region. This will in turn keep shortwave energy diving southeastward towards our region. On Thursday into Friday, mid level energy will be moving through the upper Midwest. This will prompt a cold front to move southeastward into our area, giving us our best widespread PoP chances of the period, peaking in the high chance to likely category Friday afternoon/evening. Model guidance continues to differ on how deep to dig the trough, with the 12z GFS much deeper with it compared to the ECMWF and Canadian. Given bulk shear values of 40-50 kts, can't rule out some strong storm potential. Will need to monitor future runs to see if this signal continues. It appears most of the weekend may end up dry for at least the western 1/2 to 2/3s of the region. Some guidance continues to hint at lingering precip in our eastern counties on Saturday. However, given the northwest flow in place, any weak ripple could lead to some convective development. As for temperatures, they will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s, with the warmest day occurring on Friday. Dewpoints will be creeping back up on Thursday afternoon, maybe even reaching the low to mid 70s again over southeast Missouri. This airmass will overtake the whole region on Friday, resulting in heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to around 105. More tolerable humidity levels return for the weekend. && .AVIATION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 Scattered to broken low VFR bases are possible this pm, and with a cold front approaching, diurnal convection could yield MVFR restricted base cigs with IFR to MVFR vsbys in isolated thunderstorms. Overall low probability suggestive of VCTS mention at all terminals for now through early evening, and will monitor for necessary amendments. Winds will generally be light, gradually switching from southwesterly to NNE by overnight/tmrw morning after the cold front's passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && LONG TERM...SP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 416 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-171000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 416 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Heat index values will top out from 100 to 105 this afternoon over much of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. In addition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Heavy downpours, gusty winds and deadly lightning would be the main thunderstorm hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The chance of thunderstorms returns Thursday into Saturday. However, many locations will stay storm free. While a few stronger storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled out, the main concerns include lightning and locally heavy rain. Heat indices are forecast to top the century mark Friday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation should not be needed.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:22 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A microburst damaged a trucking business and brought down several tree limbs and a whole tree. A door and some windows of the trucking business were damaged. Power outages were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 764403.