Strong to severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front that was lifting northward through southern Missouri. There were numerous reports of damaging winds with the severe storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Strong to severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front that was lifting northward through southern Missouri. There were numerous reports of damaging winds with the severe storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 11:35 PM CST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 Visibilities have been slowly improving across the region this afternoon, but many locations continue to experience widespread fog. Mid/high level clouds will continue to increase across the region late this afternoon and this evening ahead of a developing low pressure system which will bring active weather to the LSX CWA tonight and tomorrow. A well-developed baroclinic leaf was noted on afternoon satellite imagery over the south-central CONUS. This satellite feature was occurring ahead of a strong PV anomaly which will continue progressing northeastward through the central CONUS towards the Great Lakes. Increasing large-scale ascent downstream of the upper trough as well as interactions between a strong H85 low-level jet and the elevated warm frontal boundary will produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Areas of SHRA/TSRA should tend to lift north or northeastward with time in tandem with the lifting warm front. Some of the rain may be heavy at times, and parts of the southern CWA could receive up to 1.5" of rain by sunrise. The upper trough associated with the aforementioned PV anomaly becomes negatively tilted as it approaches and then moves through our area. The significance of a negatively tilted upper trough is that the cold air at mid/upper levels is located above the moistening warm sector at low levels, which increases the instability in the warm sector ahead of the surface cold front. The system's dry slot is expected to spread across at least part of the area tomorrow morning, and the combination of the dry slot as well as the lifting nocturnal precipitation should produce a break in the rain for at least a few hours during the morning, especially across the southern half of the CWA. Attention then turns to the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The cold front will be dragged farther northward while simultaneously progressing from west to east as the surface low lifts northeastward. The cold front is currently forecast to be located slightly west of the Mississippi River at 18z at the same time that the left exit region of an upper jet will be overspreading the area. These factors are in addition to the steepening lapse rates discussed above. Model forecasts depict 50-60+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear along with 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. Taken together, the environment appears favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River from late morning through late afternoon. Model forecasts of the orientation of the 0-6 km shear vectors compared to the orientation of the H85 cold front defy easy categorization. Most models show enough of a line-normal component to support discrete cells, but they also show enough of a line-parallel component to support line segments. Regardless of the convective mode, the take-home message is that sufficient shear and instability are expected to be present to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday until the cold front has pushed through the region. Overnight lows tonight will be around 10 degrees warmer than last night due to the lifting warm front and extensive cloud cover. Highs tomorrow will range from the low 50s in northeast MO to the upper 60s in the St. Louis metropolitan area as well as southeast MO and southwest IL, which is 10-20 degrees above normal across most of the area. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Next Friday) Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 (Saturday Night - Next Friday) The surface occluded front by early Saturday evening will likely be located just to the east of the CWA, removing the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Southern edge of the deformation zone may also clip portions of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois Saturday night into Sunday morning so have chance PoPs. Temperatures however in the boundary layer remain warm enough that any precipitation in these areas will stay plain liquid rain. Much colder air will be in place to end the weekend with high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Light precipitation in the form of snow is possible on Tuesday as an elongated area of midlevel vorticity moves through the mid-Mississippi Valley. The key word is light as models are only suggesting a couple hundredths of liquid equivalent precipitation so any accumulations of snowfall would likely be very minor if any were to occur at all. Northwest flow aloft establishes across the midsection of the country by the middle of next week so expectation is for dry weather with below normal temperatures. Look for highs to be mainly in the 30s with lows in the 20s for the next work week. These forecast temperatures would equate to near normal for nighttime minimums and 5-10 degrees below normal during the day. All eyes toward the very end of the extended forecast will be on an ejecting shortwave trough out of the desert southwest/northwestern Mexico. This system will likely track to the south of the area given the confluent flow downstream at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. With any storm system tracking to the south of the bi- state area in the winter season, we will have to keep an eye on this system for the potential for accumulating snowfall if sufficiently cold air remains in place. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 IFR conditions currently found areawide will persist until the dry slot associated with a wound up storm system pushes through during the day on Saturday, allowing COU and the STL metro sites to shed their IFR for at least MVFR conditions if not VFR. The main wave of showers and some thunderstorms will push thru late tonight and into Saturday morning (until 12/14z), with another round expected to develop during the heating of the day on the backend of the dry slot. Easterly surface winds will veer S-SW on Saturday. In-between all of this, fog will gradually shift its thicker portions northward as rain erodes it from the south. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: IFR conditions should last until rain exits by late Saturday morning. Speaking of rain, it still looks set to arrive around 07z with thunderstorms imbedded within the larger rain shield. IFR should improve to VFR with arrival of the storm system's "dry slot" by late Saturday morning with the terminal getting edged by new thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon, mainly to the north and west. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 432 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 432 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across parts of east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible early Saturday morning across parts of east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from late morning through late afternoon. The primary severe weather threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to relay any flooding they might observe tonight. Spotters are also asked to report any rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches. Kanofsky
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 164 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:47 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several trees around town.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several trees between Centerville and Lesterville.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several trees onto Highway N near Iron/Reynolds County line.
Thunderstorm winds blew down a large tree blocking the southbound lane of Highway 21 just south of intersection with Furnace Creek Road.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several trees just southwest of Libertyville.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several large trees.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several trees across southern portions of Ste. Genevieve County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 788444, 788445, 788446, 788447, 788448, 788450, 788451.