Tropical Storm in Mississippi, September 4 to 5, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
724 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Have updated to increase QPF amounts overnight
substantially (increased by up to 2.5 inches) mainly over extreme
southwestern Alabama based on latest trends and data. No other
major changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 706 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

UPDATE...As Tropical Storm Gordon's northeast quadrant begins to
push in, the environment is beginning to support isolated
tornadoes in any discrete embedded rainband supercells/ shear
couplets on its east side. The Storm Prediction Center has issued
Tornado watch # 369 in effect thru 4 AM Wed AM for Mobile county,
eastward to all of the northwest Florida Panhandle including the
northern coastal waters. Zone and coastal waters forecasts will be
updated to include these headlines. Note: As Tropical Storm
Gordon tracks more northwest, the tornado threat will likely
spread northwest into southeast MS later. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Tropical Storm Gordon continues to approach from
the southeast with strong east to northeast winds on its northern side
to bring impacts to the terminals to start the period. Cigs and
vsby potentially lowering to IFR categories with the passage of
the more defined rain bands. Current forecast calls for winds to
continue to increase, gusting to near 40 knots by mid evening at
MOB/BFM which will prove hazardous to all approaches and
departures. Winds switch more southeast when the center of
Gordon's circulation begins to move inland over the Mississippi
Gulf coast. Winds to remain gusty. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Tropical storm Gordon continues
to lift northwest with the latest forecast track from the
National Hurricane Center changing little with a landfall over
the Mississippi Gulf Coast this evening. There remains a small
window of opportunity for Gordon to increase to category 1
hurricane strength before landfall. Radar continues to show
rainbands over the coastal waters getting better defined,
spiraling westward and gradually inland as Gordon gains latitude.
There has been a history of brief strong wind gusts in rainbands
passing over observation points. In fact, Buoy 42012 indicated
sustained winds of 40.8 kts (47 mph) and peak gusts to 50.5 kts (58
mph) at 430 PM. We have also received reports of some water run-up
beginning on Dauphin Island. Conditions will continue to deteriorate
going into the evening.

All tropical hazards remain unchanged. The main takeaway
forecasters want to emphasize is that the bulk of the impacts,
strong winds/heavy rains in squalls, coastal flooding/surge, and
the potential of tornadoes will all be a threat tonight in warned
areas, to the east of where Gordon makes landfall. Remember
impacts from landfalling tropical systems can occur well away from
where the center makes landfall. Stay tuned.

Gordon is forecast to be weakening as it lifts northwest across
southwest Mississippi on Wednesday. Even so, there remains a heavy
rain and flooding threat in any detached rainbands during the
day. /10

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Upper level
ridge over the Mid-Atlantic builds west during the short term.
Lingering deep layer tropical moisture plume stretching southeast
into the western zones from the remnants of Gordon over southwest
Arkansas supports maintaining a likelihood (60%) PoP over the
western zones Thursday. Some of the rains could be locally heavy.
Chance east. Chances of showers and storms trend closer to
seasonal on Friday. /10

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Deep layer ridge builds
yet again over the Mid-Atlantic through the course of the medium
range while a trof axis in the higher levels is positioned over
the Plains. Environmental moisture remains sufficient for daily
rain chances to remain near seasonal levels given the westward
passage of mid level impulses on the southern periphery of the
deep ridge to aid in ascent. /10

MARINE...Impactful weather this period will be tonight. As
Tropical Storm Gordon gains latitude with the center approaching
the MS Gulf coast, marine conditions will deteriorate with high
winds and visibility reducing rains in squalls, elevated waves
over bays/sounds and high seas over the open Gulf waters. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ALZ052-059-
     261>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ261-262.

     Hurricane Warning for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ201>204.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ201-202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ634-635-655.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ630>633-650-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

ALZ265-266-052200-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation likely tonight.

ALZ263-264-052200-
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation likely tonight.

ALZ261-262-FLZ201-MSZ075-076-078-079-052200-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Escambia Inland-Perry-Greene-Stone-
George-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama, northwest
Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight.

ALZ051-053>058-060-FLZ205-052200-
Choctaw-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Covington-
Okaloosa Inland-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Brief strong wind gusts possible with the passage of Tropical Storm
Gordon's outer rain bands.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not expected to be required.

ALZ052-059-FLZ203-MSZ067-052200-
Washington-Escambia-Santa Rosa Inland-Wayne-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight.

FLZ202-204-052200-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight.

FLZ206-052200-
Okaloosa Coastal-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight.

GMZ630>633-650-670-675-052200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.

GMZ634-635-655-052200-
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

GMZ636-052200-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
457 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds and waves locally higher with the passage of Tropical Storm
Gordon's outer rain bands.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

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