Hail in Mississippi, December 1, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
611 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A line of thunderstorms is moving quickly to the East across
Eastern Arkansas. Conditions remain marginally favorable for
strong to severe thunderstorms. Surface based CAPE over 300 J/kg
seems sufficient to balance around 40 kts of shear and 0-3 km SRH
up to around 400 m2/s2. Corning, Arkansas recently reported a wind
gust of 50 mph. At the speed the line is moving, it will likely
outrun the greatest instability over the next hour or two
resulting in a diminishing threat of severe thunderstorms.

Beyond the early morning severe threat, the only concern today
might be strong gradient winds. South winds are likely to be
sustained between 15 and 20 knots this morning with gusts to 25
kts...just enough to blow around lawn furniture, trash cans and
other unsecured relatively light objects. By midday, areas West
of the Mississippi River should see more sun than clouds with
significant clearing area wide during the afternoon hours. After
the rain ends and skies clear, temperatures will soar into the low
to middle 70s, as much as 20 degrees above normal.

A very broad trough centered over the Rockies into West Texas will
begin to shift over the Plains Sunday. Slight height falls over
the Mississippi River Valley will result in slightly cooler
conditions across the Midsouth Sunday. A reinforcing cold front
will move rapidly across the Midsouth late Sunday ushering in a
cooler and dry airmass for the beginning of the work week.

The broad trough over the plains will gradually shift East through
the upcoming work week, deamplifying a bit and resulting in
Northwest Flow across the Midsouth. At the surface a high pressure
will prevail midweek, keeping conditions dry. As a result partly
cloudy to cloudy conditions are expected, along with near to
slightly below normal temperatures. Little to no precipitation is
expected through midweek, with slightly higher chance of rain late
Thursday into Friday.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

A mix of MVFR and IFR conds in the short term as a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms move along a frontal boundary near the
Mississippi River. Conditions should begin to improve to VFR behind
the front over the next couple of hours for JBR and MEM...with
MKL and TUP within a couple hours later. Winds will shift back to
the southwest behind the front and strengthen to 13-16 kts with
gusts to 25 kts through sundown. Thereafter, winds will relax to
around 10 kts from the southwest with clear skies.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021345-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
533 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will remain possible early this
morning, mainly in East Arkansas. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat.

Additional strong storms may develop this afternoon in West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
600 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

ARZ049-058-MSZ007-010-011230-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-Tunica MS-Coahoma MS-
600 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 630 AM CST
FOR...

Northern Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Lee County in eastern Arkansas...
Southern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northeastern Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 600 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Elaine, moving
northeast at 65 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northern Phillips...southeastern Lee...southern Tunica and
northeastern Coahoma Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3447 9100 3472 9055 3452 9027 3428 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 236DEG 58KT 3439 9086

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
617 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

MSZ001-TNZ088-011245-
DeSoto MS-Shelby TN-
617 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 AM CST
FOR...

Northeastern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 617 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Horn Lake, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern DeSoto and southeastern Shelby Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3512 9006 3529 8964 3500 8965 3499 8972
      3498 8973 3488 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 229DEG 54KT 3497 9003

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

ARZ028-TNZ019-048>051-011315-
Mississippi AR-Tipton TN-Crockett TN-Lauderdale TN-Dyer TN-
Haywood TN-
622 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 715 AM CST
FOR...

Northeastern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...
Southern Dyer County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 622 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Ft Pillow, or near Fort Pillow State Park, moving
northeast at 65 mph.

People in northeastern Mississippi...northeastern Tipton...
northwestern Crockett...Lauderdale...southern Dyer and northwestern
Haywood Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3603 8917 3602 8917 3601 8920 3598 8918
      3561 8923 3553 8993 3599 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 1222Z 241DEG 57KT 3565 8979

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
624 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

ARZ049-MSZ001-007-008-012-011300-
Lee AR-Tunica MS-DeSoto MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-
624 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 700 AM CST
FOR...

Southeastern Lee County in eastern Arkansas...
Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Western Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 624 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Tunica, or 8 miles northeast of St Francis National
Park, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Lee...Tunica...southwestern DeSoto...
northwestern Panola and western Tate Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3485 9037 3486 9034 3485 9032 3485 9031
      3486 9030 3487 9031 3490 9027 3487 9004
      3452 8993 3449 9020 3451 9020 3451 9030
      3448 9031 3447 9047 3451 9054 3474 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1224Z 232DEG 59KT 3463 9047

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
650 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

TNZ001>003-019-020-048-051-011345-
Weakley TN-Lake TN-Crockett TN-Lauderdale TN-Obion TN-Dyer TN-
Gibson TN-
650 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 AM CST
FOR...

Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Lake County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...
Obion County in western Tennessee...
Dyer County in western Tennessee...
Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 649 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Newbern, or near Dyersburg, moving northeast at 65
mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Weakley...southeastern Lake...northwestern Crockett...
northeastern Lauderdale...Obion...Dyer and Gibson Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 8857 3606 8866 3606 8869 3594 8870
      3587 8960 3621 8955 3650 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 241DEG 57KT 3612 8936

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
652 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

MSZ001-002-008-011345-
Marshall MS-DeSoto MS-Tate MS-
652 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 AM CST
FOR...

Northwestern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Eastern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 652 AM CST...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Arkabutla, or 7 miles northwest of Senatobia, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Marshall...eastern DeSoto and Tate Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3499 8988 3499 8945 3455 8981 3456 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 235DEG 45KT 3471 9006