An isolated severe thunderstorm produced wind gusts up to around 60 mph that brought down a few trees in southern Isabella county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GRR wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm produced wind gusts up to around 60 mph that brought down a few trees in southern Isabella county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 11:14 AM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1214 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 A cold front located in Wisconsin will track southeast through Lower Michigan today. This system will be triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms as it pushes through. A large area of high pressure will move in behind this system for Tuesday into Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 A warm and humid air mass remains in place ahead of a cold front that is just entering the northwest CWA at the noon hour. The front stretches from Northwest Lower Michigan to Southern Wisconsin. The dew point remains up at Ludington (71 degrees), so the front still has the entire CWA to traverse. Some convection has been percolating at times across the southern CWA in the warm sector. High resolution models show scattered convection developing along and ahead of the front this afternoon and early evening. Expecting storms from now through about 01z. Storms should be most numerous between 100pm and 600pm. Cannot rule out a few strong to possibly severe storms given MUCAPE values that are already around 3000 j/kg per the SPC mesoanalysis page. Effective bulk shear values are on the order of 25-30 knots to there will be more storm organization today than we had yesterday. Heavy rain remains a threat with PWAT values on the order of 1.50 to 1.75 inches. Storms will be moving a quicker today, but convection will still be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding. Highs temps will be around 90 today. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 The main challenge in the short term deals with the timing and strength of any storms. Models continue to show the cold front located in Wisconsin early the morning...tracking southeast through the CWA later this morning and through the afternoon. The atmosphere out ahead of it is rather unstable with ML CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 j/kg. These values will only grow as the front arrives here in MI later this morning into the afternoon hours. Some high res models have been generating a few showers/storms early this morning out ahead of the front here in SW Lower MI. Will feature low POPs to start the day. Then this afternoon as the instability grows with the front pushing in...will go with increasing POPs especially the further east you go through the CWA. Given the stronger forecasted instability along with a cap in place ahead of the front...it appears the convection will be strong this afternoon. The soundings shown an inverted v look down down...so damaging winds will be the main threat. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 The long term will begin under a dome of high pressure. We'll see one more night of cooler weather with lows in the lower to mid 50s before a change develops for the weekend. Both the ecmwf and gfs have been showing the development of an upper trough and corresponding sfc low over the Upper MS river valley for a few model runs. The 00z is no different and both of the models are in pretty good agreement regarding the track of the sfc low across Wisconsin and Michigan Thursday night through Saturday. Confidence is growing that we'll see widespread showers and storms during this time. The upper trough has several short waves moving through it which will enhance the chances of seeing some beneficial rain. The system clears out by Sunday leading to dry weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 727 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 Showers and some thunderstorms will be tracking through the region and TAF sites today as the cold front pushes through. Local impacts are possible. Stronger storms may develop mid afternoon around KLAN and KJXN...but they will not last long. The wind shifts behind the front and the airmass dries out. There could be a secondary frontal passage overnight...so will need to monitor trends for a period of possible clouds and a local shower or two. Considerable uncertainty exists on the development of any showers tonight..and the forecast reflects dry conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 Behind the cold front the winds and waves will be building...especially Tuesday. Forecasted conditions continue to look hazardous for swimmers and boaters...Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday evening...especially south of Muskegon. There could be another impactful wave event for this coming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018 River levels across the area are running near to below normal for mid-July. Rainfall for the first half of July is running much below normal at most locations in Lower Michigan. Shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon and evening will be limited, keeping most locations dry. A better coverage of showers and storms is expected on Monday, especially as you start moving east of US-131. High water content of the atmosphere will allow any storm that develops to produce very heavy rain both Sunday and Monday, with rainfall rates at or exceeding 1-2" per hour. Storm motion will be slow, allowing heavy rain to last longer over a single location. This could lead to localized flooding, especially on roadways or in low-lying areas. Small creeks and streams may rise rapidly where intense rainfall rates occur, but heavy rain will need to occur over a fairly wide area to cause even the smaller creeks and streams to spill out of their banks. Mainstem river flooding (Grand, Muskegon, Kalamazoo) is not expected. Dry weather is expected Monday night through Thursday. A wetter pattern looks to emerge for the end of the week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && UPDATE...Duke SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...MJS LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...HLO MARINE...MJS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-170745- Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon along and east of a line from Big Rapids to Grand Rapids down to Kalamazoo. Damaging winds and possibly large hail are the main risks. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours could accompany any of the stronger storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The risk for thunderstorms could return to the region for Thursday night into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon. LMZ844>849-170745- St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI- Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI- Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI- 336 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will be possible today. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will be the main risk to mariners. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Hazardous swim and boating conditions are likely to develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday night. Another round of storms and hazardous swim and boating conditions looks likely for the end of the week into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1002 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE GLENN 42.48N 86.17W
07/16/2018 M0.25 INCH ALLEGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES 4.2 MILES WEST OF
PULLMAN. ENDED ABOUT 930AM PER RADAR.
&&
HLOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1151 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM HEAVY RAIN COMSTOCK 42.29N 85.51W
07/15/2018 M2.70 INCH KALAMAZOO MI BROADCAST MEDIA
VIEWER PHOTO. RADAR SUGGESTS RAIN TOTAL FELL
IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.
&&
CASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
MIZ073-074-161730-
Calhoun MI-Jackson MI-
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
At 1226 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albion, moving east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph with downed tree limbs will be possible
with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Jackson... Albion... Vandercook Lake...
Homer... Spring Arbor... Sandstone...
Pulaski... Concord... Horton...
Parma... Hanover... Michigan Center...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4214 8487 4224 8486 4229 8479 4226 8435
4207 8438 4207 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 281DEG 16KT 4223 8482
CASSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1236 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
MIZ045-046-161730-
Isabella MI-Mecosta MI-
1236 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Clare to Stanwood. Movement was toward
the east at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph with downed tree limbs will be possible
with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant... Clare... Morley...
Mecosta... Rosebush... Canadian Lakes...
Lake Isabella... Stanwood... Sylvester...
Altona... Loomis... Blanchard...
Delwin... Beal City... Winn...
Weidman...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4347 8501 4347 8555 4359 8555 4381 8486
4381 8461 4359 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 268DEG 15KT 4388 8461 4358 8551
CASThe Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 117 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:13 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Area law enforcement reported that a few trees were blown down and blocked area roads in southern Isabella county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 764346.