Multiple rounds of rainfall over the weekend and into early week occurred along a stationary frontal boundary. 5 inches of rain during this time frame, which resulted in flooding north of Flemingsburg.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Multiple rounds of rainfall over the weekend and into early week occurred along a stationary frontal boundary. Portions of northwestern Fleming County received between 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain during this time frame, which resulted in flooding north of Flemingsburg.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 24, 7:13 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 813 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018 Hourly grids have been updated based on recent radar and observation trends. No changes have been made to pops at this point as areas of showers continue to progress across the region. Some heavier returns the remnants of thunderstorms in middle TN continue to move northeast across the Cumberland Plateau of TN and into the Lake Cumberland Region. Otherwise, rain rates have slackened across much of the area. Showers will continue to work across the area at times, with the current activity working across the region over the next few hours and shifting east as a warm front moves across the area and the region begins to get into the warm sector. Additional development of stronger showers overnight should mainly be focused over western KY. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018 After collaboration with neighboring WFOs earlier today extended the flash flood watch through 2 PM on Wednesday and expanded the watch to include a few more counties in the southeast. The watch lines up fairly well with the WPC Day 2 excessive rainfall outlook. Even though the WPC Day 3 Outlook does not outlook our area for Wednesday, we decided to carry the watch until 18Z Wednesday since a cold front will be pushing across the area on Wednesday and this expiration time also matches up with WFO Louisville. Radar shows showers continuing to train across the western part of the forecast area. Maximum rainfall amounts in the past 12 hours have been under 1 inch based on IFLOWS and the KY Mesonet. However rain rates may increase early this evening as a low level jet of 30 to 40 knots develops across the western part of the forecast area, and upper level divergence increases in the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak over the upper OH valley and eastern Great Lakes. Precipitable water remains between 1.5 and 2 inches so heavy rain remains a concern. A nearly stationary front which is just southwest of the forecast area will eventually pull northeast, and we should be in the warm sector by Tuesday afternoon. This will result in a much more unstable environment than today, with MU cape increasing to around 2000 J/Kg. Tuesday afternoon should see a better chance of thunderstorms than today, and with precipitable water remaining close to 2 inches we could see heavier rainfall rates than we saw today. Tuesday night will see pooling of precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches ahead of an approaching cold front so the heavy rain threat continues, especially if thunderstorms can develop and linger into the night. With shear gradually increasing the threat for isolated strong to severe storms will also increase, mainly in the northwestern part of the forecast area. However atmospheric instability will decrease Tuesday night even as the cold front approaches. Would not be surprised to see thunderstorms producing severe weather to the northwest of the forecast area, but with the storms decreasing in intensity as they approach our forecast area Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 410 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018 Heavy rain will remain a concern early Wednesday with high precipitable water around 2 inches pooled right ahead of the approaching cold front. At 12Z Wednesday the cold front should be right on the doorstep of the forecast area and then move across the area during the day. The northern part of the forecast area remains in a marginal risk for severe storms on the Day 3/Wednesday SPC Convective Outlook. However the severe threat will depend on whether we can realize enough destabilization before frontal passage. With the continuing threat of thunderstorms, and a marginal risk of severe weather until frontal passage, we also have the continued risk of heavy rain. As such the flash flood watch was extended to 18Z Wednesday. With upper troughing developing over the central to eastern U.S. the front will get pushed southeast of our area. However the front will stall as the upper level ridging over the western Atlantic, which has been a persistent feature for the past several weeks, builds west across the southeastern United States during the latter part of the week and especially into the weekend. With the passage of the cold front on Wednesday a period of more fall like weather will set in, with cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints. However as the southern U.S. upper level ridge builds over the weekend, and heights begin to rise across our area, we'll see a warming trend late in the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018 A warm front will continue to push slowly northeast across the area tonight. This will lead to an initial round of showers during the first 3 to 6 hours of the period. Some MVFR is possible during this. However, a relative lull should follow with mainly VFR although there should be a few areas of MVFR fog or low clouds between 6Z and 15Z. A general diurnal increase in convection is expected thereafter with some brief MVFR anticipated although most locations should experience prevailing VFR Vis and Cigs from 15Z Tue through the end of the period. It still appears that late tonight LLWS will also develop over the western part of the forecast area, with LLWS being included in the TAFs at SME and SYM. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>109-111-112-114-116-119. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 312 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>109-111- 112-114-116-119-251200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan- Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Clay-Martin- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson, Booneville, Manchester, and Inez 312 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms could lead to heavy rainfall and flooding tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Tuesday through Wednesday. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall, with a few storms also capable of producing strong winds and hail. The greatest threat remains flooding, with flooding of creeks and streams being possible through Wednesday. The greatest threat for river flooding will be along the Red River. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding. KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117-118-120-251200- Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Leslie-Letcher-Pike- Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 312 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms could lead to heavy rainfall and localized flooding tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Tuesday through Wednesday. A few of the storms could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding, along with strong winds and hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday. SBH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch reported that Mill Creek Road and Pleasantville Road north of Flemingsburg were both closed due to standing water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 775959.