Damaging Wind in Georgia, September 24, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Showers popping up across the state as moist south to southeasterly
flow sets up across the region. A weak open wave have moved NE out
of the gulf and is currently over North and portions of Central GA.
This combined with an approaching frontal system that stretches from
the Mid Atlantic states to MS/LA will continue to bring increased
precipitation chances to the area through the short term. There is
also some weak wedging pushing down the eastern seaboard which is
also helping to keep things a bit stable for now. There is some
decent instability across the area but still not expecting much in
the way of severe storms at the moment. Temps are still a bit warm
but they are much closer to seasonal norms today than they have
been in a few weeks. Highs Tuesday should be close to the same as
today as well as precip is expected to continue.

01

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Still no big changes for the long term. Frontal boundary that
approaches north GA mid week looks like it may not push into the
area with any significant drying. GFS/ECMWF seem to be in
agreement on keeping us in a moist airmass. Likely or better pops
for mid to late week with the approach of the front still on
track. Otherwise chance or slight chance pops area wide. The
previous discussion is included below.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long period begins with frontal boundary still west of the
area and stretching from Ohio and Kentucky and extending into the
Tennessee Valley. Ahead of this feature, moisture will be
plentiful, especially for the end of September with precipitable
water values pushing 2 inches over the western tier. There will be
plenty of cloudiness to start the day Wed but there will be some
subtle shortwaves to traverse NW portions to go along with
instability in excess of 2000 J/KG to allow for categorical pops
along and north of I20 on the west side and likely along the I85
corridor.

Front makes little if any progress through Thu afternoon and pops
distribution likewise remains unchanged although local maxima will
depend upon evolution of individual shortwaves. Stronger shortwave
moving out of the Central Plains allows for some clearing for the
northern sections by Fri day but that is only per the GFS. ECMWF
also has this feature but it does little in making the front
progress southward, instead keeping moisture firmly entrenched
over the area for the remainder of the long term.

No real signals to choose one model solution over another at this
point and will in general use a blend for the remainder of the
long term which yields pops in the low to mid range chance
category. Temperatures to remain nearly steady state for highs
through the period and above climo with low to mid 80s held down
due to cloud cover and increased rain chances.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Potential for IFR-MVFR ceilings to develop overnight with patchy
MVFR fog as well. Shower and storm chances look very limited for
the taf sites overall with the best chances along the AL border
in general. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR through the
day Tuesday with the best shower and storm chances to the N and W.
Surface winds ESE 7-12 kts diminishing to 5-10 kts overnight and
E-S 10 kts or less for Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence for timing of IFR/MVFR ceilings and
 the improvement on Tuesday.
Low confidence for showers/storms affecting the airfield.
Medium to high confidence for vsbys.
High confidence for winds.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  85  69  87 /  50  30  40  60
Atlanta         71  84  72  85 /  50  50  60  70
Blairsville     65  77  65  78 /  60  50  70  80
Cartersville    70  85  70  83 /  50  60  70  80
Columbus        72  89  73  89 /  40  40  50  50
Gainesville     69  81  70  83 /  50  40  60  70
Macon           71  89  71  90 /  40  20  30  40
Rome            70  85  70  82 /  60  60  80  80
Peachtree City  70  85  70  86 /  40  50  50  60
Vidalia         72  90  72  91 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
435 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-250845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
435 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today with highest chances
across the northwest corner of the area. A few strong storms will be
possible each day with gusty winds, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected daily through the week. A few strong storms will be
possible with gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E GRAYSVILLE          34.97N  85.10W
09/24/2018                   CATOOSA            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON SWANSON RD AT
            INTERSECTION WITH HWY 151.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800847

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
544 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW RINGGOLD          34.90N  85.14W
09/24/2018                   CATOOSA            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON POPLAR SPRINGS RD AT
            INTERSRCTION WITH BONNER RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800848

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE BOYNTON           34.91N  85.15W
09/24/2018                   CATOOSA            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOLCOMB RD CLOSED IN TWO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800849

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
839 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

GAZ011-250115-
Chattooga GA-
839 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHATTOOGA COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM EDT...

At 839 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Broomtown, or near Little River Canyon
National Preserve...moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light...unsecured objects...this
           storm has also exhibited localized rotation. A brief
           tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Summerville, Lyerly, Menlo, Cloudland, Berryton, Chattoogaville,
James H. Floyd State Park and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3444 8525 3437 8532 3437 8534 3433 8537
      3429 8541 3429 8546 3458 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 211DEG 24KT 3435 8552

WIND...50MPH