Sunny skies led to strong surface heating, with temperatures in the lower 90's. The hot and very moist air mass contributed to very strong instability.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Sunny skies led to strong surface heating, with temperatures in the lower 90's. The hot and very moist air mass contributed to very strong instability. lsolated thunderstorms formed along and ahead of an outflow boundary from the remnants of morning thunderstorms. Isolated large hail fell from these afternoon storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 27, 6:45 PM CST, 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 745 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Updated aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Main concern in the near term is thunderstorm potential through early this evening. Despite plenty of sunshine, the morning convection over southern IL and se Missouri all but dissipated around 18z. One possible culprit is a lack of convergence in the wake of the departing low level jet, which has moved into central Kentucky per the 12z href mean. However, some convective redevelopment has recently occurred near the Tennessee border this afternoon. Given the magnitude of the instability, areas near the Tennessee and Arkansas borders will need to be monitored through early evening. Any activity that develops is likely to move out of our region early tonight. Late tonight, there are strong signals from the high res guidance that a convective complex will develop upstream across Missouri or western Illinois. This complex appears to form along a backdoor cold front that will sag down into central Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley by 12z. The 12z href mean qpf across our region peaks during the morning hours, then the signal weakens in the afternoon. However, there is plenty of other guidance that continues convection into the afternoon and evening. There will still be sufficient flow aloft for some organization of the storms if daytime heating is not stifled by clouds/convective debris. Overall however, the severe potential appears marginal. A strong 500 mb high center will build over our region on Friday. This should suppress most or all of the convective potential. A few isolated storms cannot be ruled out. The heat index will reach thresholds for an advisory Friday, and a headline will be forthcoming as we get closer to the event. The high dew points will be a major contributor to the hazard. The office internal forecast model blend indicates dew points in the mid to upper 70s Friday. Actual highs will be in the mid 90s in many areas, except lower 90s in sw Indiana and Pennyrile area of west KY. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 The pattern of hot and humid conditions with occasional convection will continue. ECMWF and GFS both show scattered convection Saturday associated with a weak upper level trof. GFS continues some convective activity into the night time hours, while the ECMWF keeps the PAH forecast area dry. Went with a happy medium and included some slight chances after 06z Sunday in the eastern half of our counties, on the east side of the upper trof. Daytime heating and an approaching cold front will result in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Models take the front up to our northwest counties at 00z Monday, then show the front becoming oriented from west-southwest to east-northeast across northern portions of our region on Monday. Models have the front meandering in northern portions of our region into midweek. This will be the focus of mainly daytime convective chances through Wednesday, with the slightly better chances in our northern counties closer to the front. High temperatures will continue to be in the lower 90s through the weekend, with dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This produces afternoon heat indices of around 105 degrees across our region. Convection and resultant cloud cover make it a bit trickier to know if these values will be widespread or if these numbers will be reached or maintained very long each day. Right now we will wait and see how our Thursday and Friday conditions look to decide if headlines are needed. Surface winds take on a bit of an easterly component early next week due to the expected proximity of the frontal boundary, and this may drop highs down a couple of degrees. However, dew points will remain sultry and heat indices will still reach 100 to 105. && .AVIATION... Issued at 745 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 VFR conditions are expected across the region overall, with some pockets of MVFR cigs here and there in the early evening. Tonight, a weak cold front will become quasi-stationary across parts of southeastern MO and southern IL. This front could be a focus for scattered tstm generation mainly after midnight. We have prob30 groups for tsra at all four TAF sites for early morning or Thu afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...MY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-282045- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms will continue through early this evening. A few storms could be severe, with damaging winds and marginally severe hail the primary concerns. There is a higher chance of thunderstorms overnight, when a complex of thunderstorms could move southeast from Missouri and Illinois. The primary risks from this complex would be heavy rain and lightning, but gusty winds and hail cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The chance of thunderstorms, including a few possibly strong to severe storms, will continue on Thursday. Oppressive heat is forecast from Thursday through Monday with peak heat index readings ranging from 100 to 105 each day. Friday has the potential to be the most oppressive day with peak heat index readings of 105 to 110 possible. Small chances of thunderstorms are forecast Friday through Tuesday, mainly for the afternoon hours. Through this period, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with damaging winds will be possible each afternoon, but the primary concerns will be locally heavy rainfall and lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. York/RJP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-281030- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, FAIRFIELD, ALBION, MOUNT CARMEL, PINCKNEYVILLE, WEST FRANKFORT, MCLEANSBORO, CARMI, CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, SHAWNEETOWN, JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA, ELIZABETHTOWN, CAIRO, MOUND CITY, METROPOLIS, FORT BRANCH, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, EVANSVILLE, BOONVILLE, ROCKPORT, HICKMAN, CLINTON, BARDWELL, WICKLIFFE, PADUCAH, MAYFIELD, SMITHLAND, BENTON, MURRAY, MARION, EDDYVILLE, CADIZ, PRINCETON, MORGANFIELD, DIXON, MADISONVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE, HENDERSON, OWENSBORO, CALHOUN, GREENVILLE, ELKTON, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, VAN BUREN, DONIPHAN, POPLAR BLUFF, BLOOMFIELD, SIKESTON, CHARLESTON, AND NEW MADRID 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 ...Prolonged period of oppressive heat through the weekend... An extended period of oppressive heat and humidity is forecast late this week through the weekend. The heat index this afternoon reached 100 degrees across parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and west of the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky. Heat index values are forecast to peak near 100 degrees again on Thursday afternoon. However, temperatures and heat indices will depend on the extent of cloudiness and thunderstorms on Thursday. By Friday, the entire region will be sweltering in the heat and humidity, with highest heat index values from 105 to 110 expected. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed by Friday. The oppressive heat is forecast to last through the weekend as well, with peak heat index values forecast above 100 each day. About the only relief from the heat may come in the form of isolated, mainly heat of the day thunderstorms. During this upcoming heat wave, use caution if you must be outside for any length of time. Take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning. Drink plenty of water to replenish lost fluids. And most importantly, never leave a child or a pet in a hot vehicle, even for a short period of time! York/RJP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
805 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018
KYZ009-280130-
Calloway KY-
805 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALLOWAY COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...
At 805 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Murray, moving southeast at 35 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Murray and Hazel.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3658 8843 3672 8828 3657 8804 3654 8803
3651 8804 3650 8805 3650 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 312DEG 31KT 3660 8828
DAVEBThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:18 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Quarter-size hail was reported on the south and southwest sides of Murray.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 757176, 757177.