A frontal system was draped across the central Appalachians on the 10th and 11th. As waves moved along the front, periods of heavy rainfall lead to some flooding across Northeast Kentucky.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
A frontal system was draped across the central Appalachians on the 10th and 11th. As waves moved along the front, periods of heavy rainfall lead to some flooding across Northeast Kentucky. Rainfall amounts from the storm totaled 1 to 2 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 11, 6:12 AM EST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
612 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Last wave exits today, with flooding ongoing southern WV and
southwest VA. This may still expand north before the rain pulls
out tonight. Active with light precipitation in the week ahead.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 610 AM Sunday...
Forecast on track, with flood warnings expanded westward as
final wave pushes into the area. The apex of the baroclinic S
was already noted in central Tennessee on satellite and radar
imagery, marking the back edge of the last of the heavy
rainfall.
As of 305 AM Sunday...
Last in a series of waves move northeast across the area today,
just out ahead of a cold front stalling just east of the Ohio
River. The wave actually pushes the front back west of the Ohio
River today. However, the heavy rain associated with the flat
wave will be mainly along and southeast of its track, where the
greatest moisture resides, with PW values as high as 1.25 in, or
at the climatological maximum for this area this time of year.
With models in decent agreement on QPF and in keeping the
heavier amounts south and east of the Ohio River, used a blend
of the latest models, previous forecast and central guidance,
which reflects slightly less additional QPF than previous
forecast. Amounts are up around an inch through tonight, most
of it today including early this morning, in and near the
mountains, down around a half an inch or less along the Ohio
River, and less than that north and west.
Opted to leave the flood watch as is, until this last wave moves
on through, as some Ohio tributaries, already running high, have
already responded to rainfall so far. The hardest hit areas,
however, have been in southern WV and southwest VA and, with
another inch of rainfall expected during the next twelve hours,
long fuse flood warnings remain in effect there. We will have to
watch for issues farther north and west, where stream rises
were also occurring, until after the last wave pushes on
through.
Once the wave passes, the cold front crosses for once and for
all later today and tonight, bring one last batch of light rain
as it crosses. Anafront precipitation may mix with, and then
change to, freezing rain, sleet and then snow before ending
northwest to southeast overnight tonight and beyond the near
term.
Ice and snow accumulations will be minimal on account of
marginal surface temperatures and thermal profiles associated
with the post frontal inversion, so impacts are expected to be
limited as well.
Used a combination of MOS, near term and a short term consensus
blend for temperatures and dewpoints, within Monday morning
lows at or below freezing for the northwest half of the forecast
area, and in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...
Bulk of heavier precipitation should have exited the area at the
start of the short term, with just some light precipitation
lingering. Expect a wintry mix of precipitation late Sunday
night/early Monday, with little to no accumulation or impacts
expected at this point. Drier for the remainder of the short term
period, but periods of light shower activity will persist,
particularly across the south and east with a moist southeasterly
flow setting up as high pressure gradually slides off to the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...
Precipitation chances start to increase Wednesday onwards as a
stronger system moves into the region. Still too far out at this
point to really pinpoint any areas of heavier precipitation or
significant amounts, but will bear watching with antecedent wet
conditions. Weather turns cooler and drier towards the end of the
week, but temperatures should remain at or above normal for this
time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 610 AM Sunday...
Periods of rain, heavy at times, continue today, as one last
wave of low pressure pushes northeastward, along a front over
the middle Ohio Valley. The front pushed into central WV
overnight but, behind it, only PKB has maintained persistent
LIFR conditions early this morning, with more variable
conditions elsewhere.
The wave pushing through this morning will drive the front back
west of the Ohio River, but also cut off the downslope flow that
has resulted in VFR conditions at times. IFR to MVFR conditions
will be common in rain today, as the wave crosses.
The cold front will push east this afternoon and evening, once
the wave goes by. IFR stratus and MVFR light precipitation and
mist will generally follow the front, which will cross the Ohio
River around 20Z today, and CRW, CKB around 23Z, and the
mountains 02Z Monday. There may be a brief period of light
freezing or frozen precipitation in the middle Ohio Valley
overnight tonight.
Surface flow will be light and variable along the Ohio River
near the front this morning, and light south to southeast
elsewhere, except becoming strong and gusty at BKW and over the
mountain ridges. Surface flow will then trend toward light
south to southwest ahead of the front this afternoon, before
switching to west to northwest behind it, and may be a bit gusty
as the front goes by. Moderate southwest flow aloft will become
light northwest as the front aloft gradually crosses overnight
tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions will
vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/11/18
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H L H M L M L M M H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M H L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M H M M L H M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M L L L L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L M L L
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR likely in stratus into Monday morning, mainly in and near the
mountains.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ076-085>087.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRMHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 842 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>016-018-024>030-033-034-039-040- 515>526-121345- Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha- Roane-Calhoun-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-McDowell- Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh- Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas- Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster- Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph- Southeast Randolph- 842 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-017-019-020-031-032- 121345- Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton- Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Wirt- Ritchie-Doddridge-Harrison-Taylor- 842 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A light wintry mix of precipitation is possible late tonight, which may affect travel. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A light wintry mix of precipitation is possible early Monday morning, which may affect travel. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ABE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0618 AM FLOOD DUNLOW 38.02N 82.43W
02/11/2018 WAYNE WV 911 CALL CENTER
ROUTE 152 HAS WATER ACROSS THE ROADWAY FROM NEARBY
CREEK
&&
EVENT NUMBER RLX1800748
SLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 AM FLOOD VERNER 37.66N 81.85W
02/11/2018 MINGO WV 911 CALL CENTER
MINOR FLOODING REPORTED ALONG CREEKS NEAR VERNER
&&
EVENT NUMBER RLX1800749
SLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1133 PM FLOOD WELCH 37.43N 81.58W
02/10/2018 MCDOWELL WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HAGERMAN HOLLOW ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
&&
EVENT NUMBER RLX1800750
SLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
638 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1212 AM FLOOD GHENT 37.62N 81.11W
02/11/2018 RALEIGH WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ODD ROAD IN GHENT IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
&&
EVENT NUMBER RLX1800751
SLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
859 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0857 AM FLOOD 1 SSW LOUISA 38.10N 82.61W
02/11/2018 LAWRENCE KY EMERGENCY MNGR
OLD LICK CREEK ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE BY OLD LICK
CREEK.
&&
EVENT NUMBER RLX1800752
NWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Old Lick Creek spilled over its banks near Louisa, flooding Old Lick Creek Road where several vehicles became stranded in the high water. Dry Fork also flooded near Webbville, closing portions of Route 201.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 730284.