A potent storm system, moving out of the Great Plains into the Great Lakes, resulted in isolated strong wind gusts across portions of the Lake Cumberland region of eastern Kentucky this evening. Minor damage was reported in Wayne and Rockcastle Counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A potent storm system, moving out of the Great Plains into the Great Lakes, resulted in isolated strong wind gusts across portions of the Lake Cumberland region of eastern Kentucky this evening.
Minor damage was reported in Wayne and Rockcastle Counties. This includes damage to a storage shed just northeast of Frazer and minor structural damage in Brodhead. Additionally, a couple of downed trees were reported in Brodhead due to saturated ground in steep terrain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 27, 7:48 PM EST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 748 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM EST THU DEC 27 2018 An area of showers with a line of moderate to heavier showers with some isolated lightning embedded from time to time continue to progress east from central and into eastern KY. Lightning has generally been infrequent with the only lightning in the past half hour in Fleming County. A few wind gusts as high as 40 mph have been noted with it with some higher gusts on the back of this area of showers. Given the upstream reports, the wind advisory looks very reasonable as we move through the late evening hours and into the overnight. Some brief heavy rain is also accompanying this activity, but with quick movement from generally west to east direction amounts have been somewhat limited. The 18Z operational GFS run continued to be higher and generally further northwest as compared to many runs in the ensemble mean. Many of the recent HRRR runs generally support the QPF from the previous forecast though some of there area a bit higher than the previous forecast. Considering this and GFS mean being a bit higher than forecast QPF opted to increase QPF across the south about 0.1 to 0.3 inches, which brings the 1 inch line a bit further north. However, 1.5 inch amounts and higher remained confined to the Flash Flood Watch area with 2 inch or higher amounts mainly in just Bell and Harlan County. Further runs will continue to be monitored as well as radar and satellite trends. The convection ongoing along the Gulf Coast may limit moisture advection into the area so at this point, the higher end amounts among guidance appear overdone. Again, trends will be monitored. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 422 PM EST THU DEC 27 2018 Relatively challenging forecast with inconsistent run to run model solutions. Seems this has been the story thus far this past fall and current winter season. The 12Z operational NAM/GFS model runs took a temporary and quite scary turn bringing an axis of very high QPF (3-4 inches) to the northwest. We seriously considered expanding the current Flash Flood Watch at least a tier of counties to the northwest. But after looking over the 12Z ECMWF, several of the ensemble runs, the 18Z NAM, and collaboration with WPC, we decided to leave headlines as they originally stood. Turns out that the 12Z NAM/GFS were considerable outliers, especially when compared with the ensemble runs which generally had reassuring means closer but slightly higher than original totals and nice solid clusters of members around those means. We suspect the single run anomalies in the 12Z NAM and GFS may have been a result of convective feedback. It is worthy to note that while the 18Z NAM did shift that main axis back to the southeast, it continues to advertise higher rainfall totals. Thus incoming shifts will be monitoring trends very closely in case we do need to expand the Flood Watch further northwest. An increase in overall QPF totals has been a trend seen in every model run. We also decided to continue the Wind Advisory through tonight. We haven't seen anything significant yet except in the higher terrain where winds have gusted to between 40 and 50 mph. A convective line will be transiting the area tonight and thoughts are that some significant winds could very well mix down to the surface in the more intense showers and any thunderstorms. We maintained a slight chance of thunder tonight based on ongoing upstream activity. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 422 PM EST THU DEC 27 2018 An active southern stream jet will remain in place through the extended. Saturday will feature dry conditions in the wake of the end of the week system. We will also see a return to cooler temperatures, but still near or even slightly above normal. A shortwave will push across the southern states on Sunday, and could push some rain chances back into the southern half of our forecast area. This system looks more suppressed compared with the last few systems, so its possible the rain doesn't reach as far north and more of the area stays dry. However, ensembles are all over with this system and many of them do have precipitation in our area. Thus, opting to maintain the rain chances for Sunday. A much stronger southern stream wave will eject out across the central plains into the mid Mississippi river valley late Sunday night and Monday. Once again, mild and moist air will stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico setting the stage for another round of soaking rains. It appears like Sunday night should see rain chances quickly ramping up as strong isentropic ascent overspreads the region. With models coming into better agreement, categorical pops seem to be in order late Sunday night and Monday. Strong convergence and lift with the cold front will yield additional potential for locally heavy rain as the cold front passes on Monday. Pending the outcome from the system tonight and Friday, we could have additional flooding concerns with this event. While there is still some model disagreement beyond Monday next week, the trend is for the weather to turn drier as we head into the first week of the new year. The system for Thursday looks more suppressed to our south and east this morning, suggesting our weather will dry out. We may stay cooler with the drier scenario. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU DEC 27 2018 Observations and models suggest a gradual drop in flight conditions through 12Z as more widespread and intense shower activity moves across the area in several bands or rounds of convection. An initial band of showers and possibly a storm or two will affect the area through 2Z to 3Z. For now winds remain a bigger threat, with gusts at times and intermittent drops in winds into the light range. Thus, when winds are not gusty and convection is not occurring, extended periods of non-convective LLWS through at least the 12Z to 15Z period as winds aloft remain strong upwards of 50KT generally from the south. However, some of those higher winds mixing down briefly in showers and/or isolated thunderstorms through at least 6Z. CIGS and VSBYS will generally drop into MVFR range at times, mainly during heavier showers and closer to 12Z as a cold front moves through. Winds will be gusty at times generally out of the south through 15Z before becoming more southwest 15Z to 21Z with sustained winds averaging 10 to 15 KT. Gusts of 30KT or more possible at times mainly through 12Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KYZ080-084>088- 110-113-115>118-120. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 334 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-106>109-111-112-114- 119-281100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Wayne-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee- Breathitt-Owsley-Martin- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, Monticello, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson, Booneville, and Inez 334 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Windy conditions are expected through tonight. South to southeast wind gusts of generally between 20 and 30 mph can be anticipated, with higher gusts between 40 and 45 mph possible, especially with any passing showers or thunderstorms tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A round of heavy rainfall is possible late Sunday night through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any incidents of wind damage through tonight. KYZ080-084>088-110-113-115>118-120-281100- Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay- Leslie-Letcher-Pike- Including the cities of London, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 334 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Windy conditions are expected through tonight. South to southeast wind gusts of generally between 20 and 30 mph can be anticipated, with higher gusts between 40 and 45 mph possible, especially with any passing showers or thunderstorms tonight. Additionally, isolated higher gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in the highest terrain near the Virginia border. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight. Excessive rainfall is possible across southeast Kentucky tonight. Please refer to the Flash Flood Watch for further information. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Excessive rainfall is possible across southeast Kentucky through Friday afternoon. Please refer to the Flash Flood Watch for further information. Another round of heavy rainfall is possible late Sunday night through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any incidents of wind damage or flash flooding through Friday. RAY/KAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A citizen reported damage to a storage shed just northeast of Frazer.
Local fire department officials observed minor structural damage in Brodhead, as well as a couple of downed trees due to saturated ground in steep terrain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 791998, 791999.