An organized convective cluster developed along an advancing cold front caused flash flooding in Comanche County.
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The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
An organized convective cluster developed along an advancing cold front caused flash flooding in Comanche County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 4, 4:08 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 508 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018 ...Updated Aviation... .UPDATE... Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018 Given radar trends, with training, heavy rain producing thunderstorms from Great Bend down to the NE Texas panhandle, have issued another flash flood watch for the eastern CWA (Barber, Comanche, Edwards, Kiowa, Pawnee, Pratt, Rush, Stafford). The watch will be valid through 7 am Wednesday. Obviously, many areas in these zones are saturated or flooded, and the potential for dangerous runoff is very real as thunderstorms continue to train north. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018 Southerly moisture plume continues over SW KS as of midday, although the radar is clear of echoes, and satellite imagery indicates more breaks in the cloud cover compared to yesterday. The added insolation will yield CAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg late this afternoon, and scattered convective redevelopment will occur. The latest HRRR iterations favor this happening across the western zones after 4 pm, west of US 83. This activity will likely drift eastward to at least US 83 through this evening. A more organized convective cluster is expected this evening and tonight across NW Kansas, along an advancing cold frontal boundary. 12z NAM suggests the majority of this convection will remain in NW Kansas (WFO Goodland's CWA), before the convective remnants drift south with the front late tonight or early Wednesday. Maintained higher pops and the flash flood watch for the northern zones through tonight, but confidence is low. 12z NAM, HRRR and various other CAMs keep most of the heavy rain and flooding potential north of our CWA. With time tonight, the cold front will sag south, with a shift to N/NE winds of 10-20 mph. At least some shower activity and isolated thunder will accompany the frontal passage, as well as persist behind it into Wednesday morning. Stratus and/or fog will again reestablish Wednesday morning, with low ceilings and areas of reduced visibility. Maintained scattered rain showers and isolated thunder in the grids for Wednesday, in the cool cloudy post frontal airmass. Kept thunder mention isolated with little CAPE and a cool stable boundary layer. Temperatures on Wednesday will clearly be below normal; the question is how much. Forecasting afternoon highs in the 70s for areas along and north of US 50, with lower 80s confined to the Oklahoma border. Cool NE winds and cool advection will combine with persistent stratus, such that northern counties may struggle into the lower 70s. If stratus persists daylight Wednesday as the NAM suggests, than clearly the coldest NAM solution will be correct. Cool surface high pressure ridge axis will continue to build south into SW KS through Wednesday evening. This evolution will eliminate surface-based CAPE, and greatly limit elevated instability, such that the prospects for thunderstorms and further flooding will be greatly reduced. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018 The cloudy, cool wet weather pattern will persist Thursday and Friday, with limited sunshine, afternoon temperatures well below normal, and scattered showers and isolated thunder. As the previous forecast shift mentioned, instability (even elevated) will be limited to nil during much of this time. Still, isentropic lift over the cool stable boundary layer warrants scattered/chance category pops that the model blends generate. With the lack of deep convection, the threat of flooding is expected to end. Thursday looks particularly cool, as 12z NAM/ECMWF depict strong high pressure ridging from eastern Nebraska wedging into SW KS. Models suggest stratus and NE winds of 10-15 mph will persist all day Thursday, with only lower 70s forecast (mid 70s along the Oklahoma border). 12z MET/MAV guidance only have a high of 72 at Dodge City Thursday (about 15 degrees below normal). Clouds, NE winds, and cool surface ridging will hold firm through Friday, with more pleasantly mild temperatures and free air conditioning. 12z ECMWF consistently depicts the remnants of tropical cyclone Gordon in far SE Kansas Saturday morning, recurving into the westerlies across Missouri Saturday afternoon. Gordon will act as a catalyst for a weather pattern change for SW KS, as the cyclone pulls the trough axis east of SW KS, and subsidence encourages a clearing sky. Dry weather will prevail by the weekend, with afternoon temperatures returning to the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 508 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018 Another complicated TAF package, including convective potential, a frontal passage tonight, and low stratus behind the front through much of Wednesday. Ongoing convection as of 22z should remain primarily east of DDC. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening mainly west of a GCK-LBL line. Finally, organized convection is expected north of a GCK-HYS line during the 03-06z timeframe, along an advancing cold front. Broadbrushed VCSH/VCTS, given uncertainty of convective placement. The cold front will sag south through the airports through 12z Wed, with a shift to N/NE winds of 10-20 kts. Additional showers are likely with the frontal passage, and persisting behind the front through Wednesday. MVFR stratus is expected to persist much of the daylight hours Wednesday at all airports. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 78 63 74 / 70 50 40 50 GCK 64 76 61 72 / 60 40 40 40 EHA 62 78 58 75 / 40 30 40 40 LBL 65 80 60 75 / 40 30 40 40 HYS 65 73 62 70 / 70 60 40 40 P28 69 83 66 76 / 60 60 40 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ030-031-043- 044-046-065-066-079>081-089-090. && UPDATE...Turner SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 453 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051000- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 453 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018 /353 AM MDT Tue Sep 4 2018/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south central...southwest and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Day 1 Discussion ---------------- Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening and persist into tonight. The main concern with these storms is heavy rain. The best chance of heavy rain with localized flooding is along the Interstate 70 corridor. Hail from dime to nickel size and possibly as large as quarter size, along with wind gusts to 50 mph, are possible with the strongest storms. Day 1 Hazards ------------- * Flooding: Limited risk * Lightning: Significant risk .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Days 2-7 Discussion ------------------- A few rain showers will linger from Wednesday into Friday and a stray thunderstorm or two can't be completely ruled out. Most of this additional precipitation is expected to be on the lighter side. Days 2-7 Hazards ---------------- * Wednesday - Flooding: Limited risk - Lightning: Elevated risk * Thursday - Lightning: Limited risk * Friday No hazards. * Saturday No hazards. * Sunday No hazards. * Monday No hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will probably not be needed through tonight. However, storm spotters are encouraged to report any flooding. && For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo jf
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 324 PM MDT TUE SEP 4 2018 KSZ061-042230- Hamilton KS- 324 PM MDT TUE SEP 4 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MDT... At 323 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5 miles southwest of Holly, or 9 miles southwest of Coolidge, moving northeast at 20 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Coolidge. LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10155 3786 10204 TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 218DEG 18KT 3798 10217 Reynolds
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:12 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was reported to be over the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 787140.