Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

A complex and volatile weather situation is setting up across the
region tonight through Thursday as a storm system moves slowly
east. Strong to severe thunderstorms will erupt across Plains and
into northwestern Missouri into this evening. This activity will
spread eastward into southeastern Kansas and central Missouri
during the mid to late evening and across the remainder of the
Missouri Ozarks during the overnight hours.

There is some uncertainty on the exact evolution of this activity
but ample instability and increasing low level and deep layer shear
resulting from a strengthening low level jet will support ongoing
storm development. Expect the potential of severe weather
including large hail, damaging winds and possibly a couple of
tornadoes. Damaging straight line winds look to be the primary
risk. Low level shear profiles support northeast to east bowing
segments which will pose the greatest risk for strong winds and
the potential of a couple of quick spin up line segment tornadoes.
The greatest risk for damaging winds and tornadoes will generally
be northwest of a line from Pittsburg KS to the Lake of the
Ozarks region of central Missouri. The damaging wind threat will
continue farther east but diminish with time.

Showers and storms will continue into Thursday morning as the first
wave of activity shifts southeast and weakens. Another round of
storm development is expected later Thursday afternoon and evening
as the actual cold front and upper level trough push east into
the region. Some uncertainty on the potential of severe storms
Thursday given the residual clouds and activity. Appears the
greatest risk for severe storms Thursday will be across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri where heating and instability will be
maximized.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

A more tranquil weather pattern will return for late week into the
weekend. Temperatures will remain mild to warm. A cold front will
drop southward across the region Sunday afternoon and evening
resulting in a low chance for showers. More active weather may
return the middle to later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Thunderstorm potential will be on the increase overnight though
confidence in coverage is modest given differences in model
output. Expectation at this point is for convection currently over
KS to move north of TAF sites...with additional storms over OK to
expand in coverage as it moves into southwest Missouri after
midnight into the early morning hours. Have maintained MVFR
ceilings through the morning. Questions remain in redevelopment
of convection during the mid to late afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Runnels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1003 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040315-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1003 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will move through
central Missouri through midnight. Some of these storms could be
severe capable of producing hail to the size of quarters and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. There remains a limited threat
for tornadoes as well.

Another area of strong to severe storms will move northeast out of
Oklahoma and into southwest Missouri after midnight...continuing
toward the Highway 63 corridor into the late night hours. Winds
to 70 mph will be the greatest threat...though short lived
tornadoes will be possible as well.

Locally heavy downpours will also accompany the stronger
storms...but widespread flooding is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

 Scattered thunderstorms will impact the outlook area Thursday
 into Thursday evening. There is a conditional risk for strong to
 severe storms if enough instability develops. The greatest risk
 for severe storms will across central Missouri later in the day.

 Southerly wind gusts over 30 mph will be possible on Thursday,
 especially across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Runnels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1124 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HAIL             LOWRY CITY              38.14N 93.73W
05/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SRUNNELS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

MOZ056-057-069-030515-
Camden MO-Miller MO-Morgan MO-
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MILLER...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1133 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Smithton to 11 miles east of Warsaw to near
Wheatland. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Lake of The Ozarks State Park...
Eldon...                          Osage Beach...
Camdenton...                      Versailles...
Village of Four Seasons...        Lake Ozark...
Stover...                         Laurie...
Sunrise Beach...                  Macks Creek...
Linn Creek...                     Barnett...
Syracuse...                       Gravois Mills...
Olean...                          Climax Springs...
Bagnell...                        Etterville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3844 9264 3842 9245
      3827 9249 3793 9284 3793 9307 3819 9306
      3819 9308 3822 9308 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 264DEG 31KT 3867 9306 3823 9316 3800 9340

Schaumann