Flood and Hail in Kansas, May 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1222 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Thunderstorms are likely again today as a southwest flow aloft
across the Central Plains becomes increasingly more difluent
downstream of an upper level trough across the Desert Southwest.
In response, a surface low lee of the Rockies is expected to
reorganize across northeast New Mexico and shift northward into
southeast Colorado through this afternoon. This will usher a
frontal boundary stalled in southwest Kansas back north while an
associated dryline, after retreating into extreme southwest Kansas
much earlier this morning, begins to migrate slowly east again.
Meanwhile, a prevailing southerly flow in central Kansas will
continue to supply ample low level moisture reinforcing surface
dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s(F) ahead of the dryline. With a
strong +100kt upper level jet lifting northeast out of the Desert
Southwest into the high plains supplying increased dynamic support
aloft, the stage will be set for thunderstorm development along
and ahead of the dryline by early to mid afternoon as low/mid
level lapse rates steepen. Significant instability with CAPE
values in excess of 2000 to 2500 J/kg and strong 0-6km shear
suggests a heightened severe potential, including the possibility
for tornadoes, even though the directional shear component isn't
overly favorable.

Although a stalled frontal boundary across southwest Kansas will be
slow to lift back to the north today, highs are expected to reach
the lower/mid 80s(F) across south central Kansas into portions of
southwest Kansas while the mid/upper 70s(F) are forecast in west
central and central Kansas. Expect lows generally down into the
50s(F) tonight with the lower 60s(F) likely in south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Although an outside chance for precip lingers across west central
and central Kansas Thursday due to a passing upper level shortwave
across Nebraska sending a cold front through western Kansas, a drier
period will be on hand for the region through the weekend as ridging
aloft moves off the Pacific into the Intermountain West. A dry air
mass will spread into western Kansas behind the frontal passage
Thursday, then remain through the early part of the weekend limiting
instability while an initial southwesterly flow aloft early in the
period begins to weaken while becoming more zonal by Saturday.

A cold front will push through western Kansas mid to late Thursday
afternoon allowing cooler air to filter into the area. Expect highs
only up into the 70s(F) across west central Kansas Thursday
afternoon with highs still reaching the 80s(F) ahead of the boundary
across south central Kansas and possibly portions of southwest
Kansas. Although briefly, more seasonal highs are likely Friday in
wake of the frontal passage the day previous. Should see highs only
up into the 70s(F) Friday afternoon with temperatures rebounding
back up into the 80s(F) over the weekend as upper level ridging
moves across the Central Rockies into the Western High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

VFR conditions and southerly winds can be expected this afternoon
to all TAF sites with the possible exception of the HAYS area as
a surface boundary/warm front lift north across western Kansas.
Strong to severe thunderstorms can also be expected along and
east/of this surface boundary through late day as an upper level
wave passes. At this time the area most favorable for these severe
storms will be east of Liberal and near/south of Dodge City so
will be inserting convection for a few hours early this afternoon
at Dodge while leaving precipitation out of the remainder of the
TAF sites. Also insert VCSH in the Garden City area to cover the
convection developing further north of the cold front. As our
winds become southerly today they will average 10 to 15 knots
through the remainder of the day. After sunset several models once
again bring IFR stratus back to areas of western Kansas
overnight, mainly after midnight. There could even be a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms before this stratus moves in,
mainly between 00z Thurs and 06z Thurs in Liberal and Dodge City
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  55  80  46 /  70  20  10   0
GCK  83  51  75  43 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  82  50  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  85  52  78  45 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  78  53  78  46 /  10  10  20  10
P28  85  63  87  50 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ084-085.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
429 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
429 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018 /329 AM MDT Wed May 2 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop early to
mid afternoon across portions of southwest Kansas, then spreading
northeast into central Kansas through the evening. Storms will be
capable of producing up to tennis ball size hail and damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph. Such conditions exist that tornadoes
are also a possibility with the strongest storms.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for extreme southwest Kansas this
afternoon through early evening. See the fire weather message for
further details. Otherwise, gusty south winds and low relative
humidity will produce elevated fire conditions across the
remaining portions of southwest Kansas into central and south
central Kansas this afternoon. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Extreme risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Gusty west-northwest winds and low relative humidity will create
elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Outdoor burning
is discouraged.

Elevated fire weather conditions return over the weekend into
early next week as gusty southerly winds and low relative humidity
return to southwest and central Kansas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Friday
  No hazards.

* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early this afternoon through this
evening generally east of a WaKeeney to Liberal line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSZ086-087-021830-
Seward KS-Meade KS-
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SEWARD...MEADE AND
SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Forgan, or 7 miles north of Beaver, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meade, Fowler, Kismet, Meade State Park, Missler and Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 10064 3746 10011 3700 10016 3700 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 215DEG 55KT 3692 10053

UMSCHEID