Tornadoes and Flooding in Kansas, May 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
129 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Afternoon and evening storms are expected to be most numerous
through the evening hours or around 06Z with all facets of severe
weather possible before activity wanes or moves away from the area
after 06Z. Repeated heavy rain may cause some localized flooding
concerns, especially in areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday.

A mid/upper trough over the Southern Rockies is progged to lift
north and east toward the Central Rockies on Thursday. Meanwhile, a
dryline will remain draped across Central KS providing a focus for
deep moist convection after 18Z. The dryline is forecast to make a
more rapid eastward progress across the area on Thursday afternoon
with locations generally east of the Kansas Turnpike having the
highest probabilities for storms. Deep layer shear remains favorable
for the development of severe storms with all severe hazards
possible once again across much of southeast Kansas. The threat is
expected to move east of the area by 03-04Z.

Fri-Sat...Shortwave ridging will return to the Central Plains states
on Friday with light northerly winds, dry weather conditions and
seasonably mild temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. Low level
southerly flow will return to the area on Sat but dry weather
conditions and mild temperatures are expected with highs in the
lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

A cold front is progged to move into the area on Sunday ushering
in more seasonable air through early next week. A shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Plains may bring a chance for deep
moist convection to the area Tue-Wed and maintained low pops
across much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Scattered to numerous strong to severe convection will develop and
move east-northeast across parts of central and south central
Kansas late this afternoon/evening. Terminals will be amended as
needed as these storms approach and affect the area. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions away from convection today with cigs
lowering through the MVFR category later tonight over most areas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  66  85  53 /  70  80  20   0
Hutchinson      84  63  85  51 /  80  80  10   0
Newton          83  64  86  52 /  70  80  20   0
ElDorado        83  65  83  53 /  60  80  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   84  67  83  54 /  50  60  30  10
Russell         73  59  81  47 /  40  30  10  10
Great Bend      78  60  82  48 /  60  40  10   0
Salina          84  61  84  51 /  70  70  20  10
McPherson       84  62  84  50 /  80  80  10  10
Coffeyville     84  69  81  58 /  20  50  70  30
Chanute         84  67  82  56 /  20  60  70  30
Iola            83  66  82  56 /  20  70  60  30
Parsons-KPPF    84  69  81  57 /  20  50  70  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
224 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-031930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
224 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a
southwest-northeast oriented frontal boundary across central
Kansas, roughly along and just southeast of a Great Bend to Salina
line. A few discrete supercells will be possible early on, before
evolving to multi-clusters or bowing segments. While these storms
move east and northeast, they will also tend to develop a bit
further to the south into parts of south central Kansas by early
evening. The stronger supercell storms will be capable of very large
hail to baseball size and damaging straight-line winds to 75 mph. A
couple of tornadoes will be possible until sunset, especially with
any discrete storms, or on the southern end of multi-clusters and
line segments.

Locally heavy rainfall due to a period of training storms could
lead to minor low-land flash flooding late this afternoon and
evening, especially along and just north of the highway 50 corridor
in central Kansas.

Minor flooding is forecast on the Salt River near Barnard. Check
the latest flood statement for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected on Thursday
afternoon for locations roughly east of Interstate 35. The main
threats will be winds of 60-70 mph, golfball hail and a couple of
tornadoes.

Minor flooding on the Salt River near Barnard is forecast to linger
through Thursday night. Check the latest flood statement for
details.

A few thunderstorms are possible as we move into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening, especially
south of I-70 and northwest of the Kansas turnpike.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/