Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

A rather complicated mesoscale pattern for the late afternoon into
the early evening hours. Latest visible satellite and observations
showed remnants of a weak outflow boundary draped across central KS.
Latest obs suggest this boundary has all but mixed out. Next short
term concern is a weak impulse currently over north central TX, with
convection developing just north of the Red River valley. For the
early evening, short range hi-rez models suggest that washing out of
the outflow boundary will continue, with a bigger concern being the
convection in srn OK. Short range models actually lift the OK storms
rapidly to the NE and become more widespread as they move into south
central KS after 22-23z. As this weak impulse moves NE it will
run into a weakly capped environment, so think the Hi-Rez models
have the right idea. So will beef up pops across south central KS,
with this in mind. A very unstable airmass will be in place as
storms develop, but bulk shear is marginal. Given a slight
inverted-V sounding profile, think a strong to isolated severe
chance of quarter hail and a wet microburst exists with this round
of convection.

After this initial round of convection, (early this evening) A
shortwave currently over Wy will makes its way into the northern
plains by late this evening, which will help push a cold front into
north central KS and possibly central KS by late this evening. As
the evening progresses the low level jet and moisture transport will
increase convergence along the front for showers and thunderstorms
to develop and become more numerous towards midnight across central
KS. Think this convection in central KS will evolve into a forward
propagating convective system (MCS) for late tonight. Initially bulk
shear isnt that impressive (around 20-30 kts) but an unstable
airmass will be located to the E-SE of the front, as bulk shear
actually increases to around 35 kts late tonight.  So thinking
strong storms initially, with possibly an increasing damaging wind
threat for portions of central KS by late tonight as shear increases
and MCS propagates S-SE. Could also see some pockets of heavy
rainfall given precipitable water values of 180-200 percent of
normal. The MCS development is a little slower than previously
thought, but certainly suggests some areas of south central KS could
get two rounds of storms this evening/overnight.

Not sure how far south the front and MCS, will make for early Sun
morning, as the MCS moves into srn KS. Models suggest that the cold
front associated with the MCS will make slow progress into areas
east of the KS Turnpike for Sun morning, so showers/storms may
linger in SE KS into Sun morning.

Some uncertainty on how Sun afternoon will play out, but the GFS is
coming around the ECMWF solution of pushing the front into nrn OK.
This will limit convective chances on Sun to mainly extreme SE KS,
where better moisture will be located ahead of the front. Return
flow across the srn plains may lead to an elevated convective chance
trying to push back north out of nrn OK overnight Sun into possibly
srn KS, so will leave a small pop for this chance along the KS/OK
border.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Stagnant mid-upper pattern is expected for the start of next week,
as an upper ridge dominates much the Central Plains. The general
trend is dry with gradually increasing above normal temperatures.
The GFS breaks out mainly diurnal storms in southeast KS by the end
of the week, where the higher precipitable water values will be
located, but confidence in this occurring is slim. Will keep some
spurious pops for collaboration sake, but storm chances will be very
hit or miss.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The main aviation concern today will be chances of thunderstorms
late this afternoon and evening. It is possible that a few stray
thunderstorms could initiate in central and south central Kansas
this afternoon and evening. However, better chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be later this evening and overnight as a
cold front pushes south across the region. Some of these storms
could be strong or severe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  89  71  93 /  80  20  10  10
Hutchinson      70  89  68  93 /  80  10  10  10
Newton          70  88  69  92 /  80  10  10  10
ElDorado        70  87  69  91 /  70  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  89  71  92 /  70  20  10  10
Russell         66  88  66  95 /  50  10   0  10
Great Bend      67  88  66  93 /  50  10   0  10
Salina          70  89  68  96 /  70  10   0  10
McPherson       70  89  67  93 /  80  10   0  10
Coffeyville     75  90  71  92 /  30  30  20  10
Chanute         74  89  70  92 /  50  30  20  10
Iola            73  88  70  91 /  50  30  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  89  71  92 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...TAV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
408 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
408 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat indices around 100 to 105 are forecast until early this
evening. Check the latest Heat Advisory for details.

A cluster of thunderstorms will move northeast out of Oklahoma into
south central Kansas late this afternoon into early this evening. As
the storms move north there will be chance for severe storms, with
quarter size hail and damaging winds to 65 mph. Pockets of heavy
rainfall are possible in urban areas.

Thunderstorms are also likely to move south late this evening and
overnight as a complex of storms develops over northern Kansas.
Strong storms, with small hail and winds around 50 mph are likely.
Very heavy rain is also likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a small chance storms could linger into Sunday, roughly
east of Kansas Turnpike. These storms are not expected to be
severe.

Heat indices are currently forecast to be around 100 each afternoon
from Monday through Thursday over various parts of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton/Ketcham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
524 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

KSZ091-092-302245-
Harper KS-Sumner KS-
524 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Harper County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 520 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Amorita to Wakita to 5 miles north of Hunter...and moving northeast
  at 45 mph.

Hail up to the size of dimes and winds up to 50 mph are possible
with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Anthony, Caldwell, Bluff City, Waldron and Corwin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248 remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9835 3704 9835 3718 9822 3713 9763
      3700 9750
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 216DEG 38KT 3693 9834 3689 9792 3664 9766

ES