A mid-level trough over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys promoted the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Conditions were favorable for funnel clouds to form, however they were not associated with intense convection.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A mid-level trough over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys promoted the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Conditions were favorable for funnel clouds to form, however they were not associated with intense convection. No touchdowns were reported. Some locally heavy rain caused isolated flooding problems.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 5:25 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 625 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Updated for 12Z aviation forecast discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Today we will continue to deal with an upper level system which was centered over south central MO down into northern Mississippi as of 06Z. This system will remain rather stagnant at least for the first part of today, which will result in scattered showers and some thunderstorms along with plenty of cloudiness, which will help keep temperatures down in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees today. Model QPF during the day today is all over the place, so placement of POPs will be a challenge. However, best POPs this morning should be situated in our western areas but precipitation might be a bit sparse to start the day. By afternoon, we should see additional scattered development across the entire CWA as the upper level system migrates further east into the area. Day shift can monitor POP trends and adjust when necessary. Still looking at PWs running around the 99th percentile for this time of the year so localized flooding issues may result. Tonight, as this upper level system very slowly moves east with time, we should see the coverage of the showers and storms decrease from west to east. Parts of southeast Missouri (Ozarks) should be mainly dry as we start the evening with the highest coverage of rain in our eastern sections. By Saturday morning, we will still be dealing with scattered convection in the east, but by afternoon by and large, we should see the area drying out as upper level ridging takes over. Sunshine along with a substantial increase in our 850 mb temperatures will allow for highs on Saturday to jump back into the mid to upper 80s. As our next system strengthens to the west, there are hints from a few of the models of a warm front arching through the area Saturday night, so Went ahead with a slight chance for rain. Precipitation prospects for Sunday look meager right now. We end up in southwest flow aloft and the aforementioned front to our west, has a really difficult time advancing eastward. Models are not in agreement at all on how things will play out synoptically for Sunday into Sunday night. Will maintain slight chance to chance type wording for now. Highs on Sunday will reach close to the 90 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Warm and humid late spring weather will continue next week. Scattered convection is a good bet each day. There are increasing model differences later in the week, but these differences will have little impact on our sensible weather. The large-scale 500 mb pattern will consist of troughing over the far western states, weak ridging over the central states, and potentially some weak troughing along the Appalachians. The biggest model differences center on the strength of the trough near the Appalachians later next week, but they are minor differences. Monday through Wednesday, a surface frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary just to the north of our region. This shallow boundary may occasionally move down into the lower Ohio Valley, as indicated by the 00z ecmwf. The proximity of the boundary will keep precip chances in the forecast continually. The stronger upper level winds and forcing for ascent will remain north of the Ohio River, limiting the potential for organized intense convection in our area. Highs will be in the 80s, with lows in the 60s. There is some potential for the cold front to progress south of our region on Thursday, depending on the strength of the eastern 500 mb trough. The 00z ecmwf brings humidity levels down Thursday, however the gfs ensemble mean has backed off on this idea. The forecast will call for only slight cooling and drying Thursday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Plenty of showers out there this morning, some of which are heavy which is temporarily reducing vsbys and cigs. This will be the case for much of the day, with thunderstorms becoming a possibility by afternoon. MVFR cigs may eventually become commonplace later on today as well. The precipitation should begin tapering off at KCGI/KPAH by 00Z-03Z but will likely linger at the other sites for much of the evening and even into the overnight hours. Winds will be light. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 412 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 412 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance for thunderstorms today and tonight. Lightning and heavy rain will be the primary hazards. Localized flooding problems may result. An isolated strong storm may also include gusty winds and hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday There is an almost daily chance of thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week. Lightning and locally heavy rain will continue to be the primary associated hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:30 UTC.
1 flood, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Water overflowed from ditches, covering parts of Highway 154.
The funnel cloud was not associated with strong or severe thunderstorms.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 754721, 749150.