Wildfire in Hawaii, August 1 to 6, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
958 AM HST Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A breezy trade wind weather pattern can be expected over the next
several days thanks to high pressure far north of the area. A few
passing showers can be expected over the next few days mainly over
windward and mauka areas. An upper trough is forecast to move near
the area over the weekend with an increase in shower activity
expected. A drier and move stable airmass is forecast to move over
the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure is currently centered far north of the area. This
places the islands in a breezy trade wind environment. Breezy
trade winds will likely continue through the week and on through
the weekend. Aloft, a north northeast through south southwest
oriented upper trough is centered far northeast of the area with
its southern edge positioned just northeast of the Big Island. The
trough is forecast to slowly dig toward the south southwest over
the next few days and gradually become a cutoff low . This will
gradually cause the airmass over the are to become a bit less
stable. Thus a wetter trade wind pattern is setting up for later
in the week and on into the weekend. Some showers Daytime heating
may allow for a few thunderstorms to form over the leeward Big
Island slopes during the afternoon hours through Friday and
possibly over the weekend as well.

By early next week, the upper low is forecast to gradually move
west away for the area while an upper ridge builds in from the
east. This will gradually stabilize the airmass with shower
activity becoming less frequent. The surface high is forecast to
gradually shift to the northwest of the area with trade winds
speeds expected to drop a bit as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...
Locally strong trade winds will prevail as high pressure persists
far north of the state. AIRMET TANGO for low level turbulence
over and immediately south through west of the mountains will
likely stay posted at least for the next couple of days.

Trade winds will focus most clouds and showers over windward and
mountain areas, with brief MVFR CIG/VIS in passing showers. The
need for mountain obscuration AIRMET will continue to be
monitored, but is not likely today as prevailing cigs remain at or
above 3500 ft. The airmass over the islands will remain somewhat
unstable, enough for TCU and a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the leeward slopes of the Big Island this afternoon. High clouds,
at or above FL200, will continue to stream over the state through
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong trade winds will likely continue into Saturday before
trending down a notch. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted
across all Hawaiian coastal waters.

The elevated trade winds will produce choppy surf along east
facing shores, with wave heights increasing through the day
today. Surf along the east facing shores is then expected to hold
steady through rest of the week due to the persistent strong
trade winds. Small southeast and south swells will maintain small
background surf along south facing shores through the week. Small,
short- lived west and northwest swells should provide for a very
small bump along exposed north and west facing shores later today
and tomorrow. However, Kauai will help block most of the west
swell energy from the other islands.

See the latest Oahu Surf Discussion (SRDHFO) for additional
details on surf and swell.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...Burke
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...EATON