A cluster of severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts moved from the west into Rabun County during the afternoon.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A cluster of severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts moved from the west into Rabun County during the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 23, 1:35 PM EST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered shower and thunderstorms will persist through Monday as
the region remains in a warm and humid airmass. A weak cold front
will drop into the forecast area early next week, bringing more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday. Warmer and more humid air will
return beginning Wednesday, possibly beginning another heat wave.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Saturday: MCS with severe storms is currently in the
TN/GA area and moving eastward. Low-res models do not represent
this complex with much fidelity, while CAMs do somewhat better. HRRR
may have the most accurate depiction, and it has storms reaching the
western edge of the CWA around 21Z. HRRR weakens storms
considerably as they cross the Southern Appalachians, with
significant activity ending by 00Z. Weakening of storms is
reasonable as MLCAPE is less than 1000 j/kg in piedmont areas, and
even less in the mountains; along with some capping. Deep layer
shear is also weaker today than yesterday, down to 20 to 25kts. Most
likely area for any severe will be severe wind gusts in Northeast GA
parts of the CWA for a few hours from 21Z to 00Z as MCS remnants
reach the CWA, in-line with the SPC DAY1 SLIGHT RISK outlook for
that area.
GSP CWA is on the west side of a departing system and the incoming
MCS is east of a short wave embedded in otherwise zonal flow. Short
wave weakens considerably over the mountains this evening, leaving a
general zonal upper flow pattern with some weak bits of shortwave
energy embedded within. Flow over the mountains creates a broad lee
trough that has only limited effects on surface winds, making them
somewhat more northwesterly over the mountains. 850mb winds remain
somewhat elevated today and, with good mixing, gusts to 25kts this
afternoon will again occur until sunset.
With little change to surface flow, dewpoints and convective
instability (albeit it moderate) remain in place for Sunday, with
afternoon thunderstorms possible, with some help from the small
short waves. Wind shear will relax, but sufficient instability will
exist for some low-end severe wind gusts.
Temperatures will be close to recent history, and continue to run 5
or so degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: A bit of a messy forecast during this
part of the cycle. As we move through Sunday night the NAM, GFS
and the European models were showing multiple waves embedded in the
fast flow, moving through our area. Meanwhile some semblance of a
combination of the lee side trough and another wind shift to the
north, tries to then drive a weak surface front to near the South
Carolina and North Carolina state line by Monday morning. The models
are insistent for pockets of QPF Sunday night, although highest POPS
will be pulled back to the mountains by Monday morning.
The flow aloft will be turning W-NW to NW on Monday, while a parade
of energy lobes ride the mean flow into our rather soupy airmass.
The weak front, as it were, drifts south by Monday evening. The
European and NAM depict a picture of chance POPS across the entire
region, and the GFS hits our southern forecast area (FA) and the
mountains with greater QPF values. Considering much of this will
depend on meso scale interactions, combined with the weak surface
front, at this point will keep POPS going Monday and Monday
night.
By Tuesday the weak surface front should be south of our area, while
high pressure aloft builds from Alabama north into Kentucky. Our
heights aloft will be on the increase, but lobes of energy are still
rolling down into our region in the NWly flow aloft. Also an east to
southeast moist upslope component tries to commence Tuesday. Rather
interesting the guide is supporting an uptick in POPS, especially in
our upslope east facing mountain slopes. We have followed along,
with a lower confidence level.
We kept temperatures very warm in the piedmont Monday, with some
heat indices of 100 in the far south. We then pulled back Tuesday
with a wedge-like configuration and clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sat: The backdoor front will become more or less
stationary Tuesday, as the high pressure which drove it into our
area moves off the East Coast. Elevated PoPs are expected over the
southern half of the CWFA as well as the central/western NC mtns Tue
and Tue night. The front more or less washes out in place. Low-level
flow will veer around to southerly Tuesday night into Wednesday in
response to the shifting high as well as the low pressure system
moving move across the Great Lakes. That system stands to enhance
otherwise diurnally forced convective coverage for our area on
Wednesday, though 0-6km shear is still not especially concerning
for a severe threat. Mainly diurnal PoPs are expected Thu and Fri.
Briefly cooler temps still are expected for Tuesday, about a
category below normal. From there, however, temps trend upward:
back to normal Wednesday, then a few degrees above normal Thu-Fri
under the influence of another deep ridge. Afternoon heat indices
may creep upward of 100, though as mentioned for the short term,
we've attempted to account for some mixing and therefore values
are expected to remain below advisory criteria. The heat currently
looks to continue into next weekend, so cumulative effects may
need to be considered closer to the event.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: With limited instability, little
forcing, and some capping, somewhat lower chances of afternoon
thunder exists today outside of the mountains. Chances for
convection are below worth mentioning at all aerodromes except KAVL.
Convective complex from the west is expect to approach the western
mountains around 00Z, but weaken as it does so, with only VCSH
showers and maybe a little thunder. After 18Z on Sunday, a more
diurnal pattern to convective activity is expected to resume with
some chances for TRW. MVR to IFR overcast this morning that was
seen this morning, is not expected to recur Sunday morning due to
some limiting of overnight low temperatures due to cloudiness aloft.
850mb winds of 20 to 25kts and good mixing of the BL to 5000 ft will
give gusts at all stations from 18Z to 00Z, plus or minus an hour.
Winds will be persistently southwesterly in the piedmont to
northwesterly in the mountains.
Outlook: A fairly typical summer pattern is expected today and
Sunday, with mainly scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms, and
patchy morning fog and low stratus in locations with wet ground
and/or the mountain valleys. A slow-moving or stalled front will
bring better chances for convection and restrictions early next week.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 93% High 94%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...WJMHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 519 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-071-072-082- SCZ001>014-019-240930- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Yancey- Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 519 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, upstate South Carolina, the mountains of western North Carolina, and a portion of the Charlotte metro area. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon. Cloud-to-ground lightning and torrential rainfall are possible with any of the storms. However, a few of them may produce severe weather, primarily in the form of damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds, large hail, or flash flooding to our office. NCZ033-035>037-056-057-068>070-501>510-240930- Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- 519 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of the the foothills and Piedmont of North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon. Cloud-to-ground lightning, torrential rainfall, and gusty winds are possible with any of the storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. Wimberley
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018
NCZ058-232000-
Graham NC-
304 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...
At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 10 miles south of Madisonville to 4 miles
northeast of Ducktown to near Blue Ridge, and moving east at 50 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Fontana Village, Lake Santeetlah,
Fontana Lake, Stecoah, Tapoco, Cheoah, Deals Gap and Nantahala.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3546 8396 3545 8394
3547 8390 3545 8386 3544 8381 3545 8380
3543 8365 3544 8364 3542 8359 3541 8358
3535 8362 3532 8369 3528 8368 3525 8370
3525 8385 3522 8396 3524 8401 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 260DEG 44KT 3537 8436 3510 8435 3486 8428
HGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018
GAZ010-017-NCZ062-232030-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Macon NC-
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HABERSHAM...RABUN AND MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles north of Murphy to 7 miles northwest of
Blairsville to 10 miles northwest of Dahlonega, and moving east at 50
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Clayton, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Demorest, Mount Airy,
Highlands, Mountain City, Tiger and Dillard.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
LAT...LON 3518 8373 3519 8323 3499 8310 3494 8311
3482 8331 3473 8335 3469 8334 3449 8346
3451 8367 3454 8362 3465 8366 3473 8362
3480 8368 3488 8366 3495 8355 3499 8355
3500 8348 3500 8352 3515 8365 3516 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 270DEG 42KT 3516 8404 3497 8405 3462 8413
HGThe Greer radar (KGSP), 121 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:54 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported numerous trees and power lines blown down across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 768706.