What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 6:51 AM EST, 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 6:51 AM EST, 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross our area from the west today bringing a line
of very heavy showers and a few storms. This cold front will
stall to our south on Saturday, bringing temporarily dry weather,
but another system will bring additional moisture to the region
Sunday. The stalled front will retreat north as a warm front Monday
as another strong cold front slides east. This cold front will
slowly move into our area and may stall, keeping our region
unsettled through much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EST Friday: current radar trends show heavy
precip moving through the mountain zones with showers to the east,
and moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to continue through much
of day today, especially as the surface front marches eastward
towards the FA. Rates in the band of precip moving through Nrn GA as
well as in the precip shield back in AL ahead of the main surface
front still look quite impressive, and we still expect these to
arrive later this morning and into the early afternoon. Surface
winds show some light northeasterly wedge flow southeast of the
mountains persists, but has become weaker and more disorganized as
the surface wedge begins to show signs of erosion. Winds over the
higher terrain remain more southerly in response to the strong 850mb
flow aloft. As we head through the late morning to early afternoon
hours, the wedge will gradually break up, and southerly flow will
eventually prevail everywhere. Temperatures today have a high bust
potential and will likely display a very tight gradient, with areas
where the wedge hangs on later in the morning likely seeing max Ts
about 10 degrees cooler than the southern fringe of the wedge where
it is able to erode faster.
The heaviest period of rain is expected to be during FROPA from late
this morning through the afternoon. Warm advection will occur ahead
of the front today, and max temps in areas where the wedge is able
to erode will warm into the 60s. This will also result in the
development of some CAPE, mainly over the southeastern fringe of the
forecast area. Recent model trends have confined instability to just
our far southeastern tier of counties, which makes sense considering
the delayed CAD erosion. Instability even there does appear to be
limited, though with rather strong vertical shear, there is an
outside chance of severe weather, and the SPC marginal risk seems
warranted. However, heavy rain with the risk of flooding continues
to be the main threat with this system, especially if convection is
able to develop in areas that destabilize. There are still signs in
the guidance that very heavy rainfall associated with convection may
develop this afternoon in those spots. Latest trends have moved the
front through the area faster than previously thought, with most of
the forecast area dry by 00Z this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Friday: The forecast has trended a bit murkier for
the latter half of the weekend, as the timing and amounts of any
returning rainfall are looking a bit less certain. Saturday should
still feature good drying as surface high pressure sprawls over to
the north from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region. Low to mid-
level flow will be generally westerly early in the weekend, with a
decent downslope drying component across most of the forecast area.
There remains some question how far southeast of the region the
deeper moisture along the departed front will get shunted, but
reasonable consensus exists for at least the Saturday period to be
dry. Temperatures should rebound into the low to mid 60s east of the
mountains, although some thicker cirrus could enter the picture as a
robust 150+ kt upper jetlet wraps around the region from the Ohio
Valley to Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the southern stream system will reload over the
southwestern U.S. this weekend and continue to pump moisture back
toward the southeast from the western Gulf coast region. The
returning moisture under the shallow southeast ridge is now more
uncertain for Saturday night through Sunday. Previous ECMWF runs
brought deeper RH back more quickly over the southeast Saturday
night. The 00Z operational NAM brings a narrow, deep moisture zone
back to just the piedmont by daybreak Sunday, and the SREF generally
supports these better southern tier PoPs. However, the GFS camp
maintains better westerly 850 mb flow and drier conditions until
Sunday night. Will adopt a guidance blend and feature a slow, steady
uptick in PoP from south to north starting with low end chances late
Saturday night and ramping up to high likely PoPs throughout by late
Sunday night. Temperatures and profiles will once again support all
liquid ptypes with this next event. Will maintain a generic HWO
heavy rain/flooding mention, but not hit this any more aggressively
given the uncertainty.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday: Previous model runs were showing some drier
weather late in the week. Well, that is still the case, but delayed
by a day from yesterdays forecast. This forecast period starts at
12Z Monday and at that time on the 500mb pattern there is a trough
digging over the Rockies with a ridge over the SE States centered
over the Bahamas. At the surface, low pressure moving NE from east
Texas and will be over Ohio by Monday evening with the associated
cold front advancing toward our region. Most of the energy goes
with the low pressure and the moisture with the front fades as it
crosses our region on Tuesday. Instability on the GFS is lower
Tuesday afternoon in this run at no more than 200 CAPE as was 300 in
the Carolina piedmont previous runs. The front stalls out from the
Texas coast to the Carolina coast. Meanwhile, on Tuesday the main
upper trough axis will be over the SW States poised to move east to
put a wrap on our rain. After a lull in our rainfall late Tuesday
and Tuesday night with brief high pressure nosing in from the north,
the last of the big low pressures forms over the western Gulf
increasing rainfall for our area late Wednesday and Thursday. The
models agree that the heaviest rainfall will be Thursday morning to
midday then tapers off as the closed 500mb low approaches from the
west. This closed 500mb low should be over our area early Friday.
Drying begins Friday going into next weekend. Temperatures about 10
degrees above normal in the first half of the week then falling
below normal late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: IFR to LIFR ceilings prevail at most TAF
sites as heavy rain moves through the area ahead of an approaching
front. Rain will continue through the day today, with the heaviest
rainfall expected to move through this afternoon as the main front
crosses the area. Though TAFs previously featured thunder, have
removed it all sites due to delayed erosion of the cool high
pressure wedge, which will result in instability being confined to
the southeast of KCLT/KGSP/KGMU/KAND. Light northeasterly flow
prevails southeast of the mountains as the wedge of high pressure
hangs on, and southerly flow over the mountains. The wedge of high
pressure will erode through this morning, and winds are expected to
shift from easterly to southwesterly at all sites by the afternoon
hours. Strong winds at 850mb will produce gusty southerly winds to
occasionally 25kts near and behind the front for much of the day,
and LLVL vertical wind shear of 30 to 40 kts in the lowest 2000 feet
primarily in the morning.
Outlook: Expect heavy rainfall across the area today, with areas of
significant restrictions continuing. While VFR may briefly return
Saturday, unsettled weather will redevelop later in the weekend as
additional waves of moisture move through the southeast.
Confidence Table...
12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z
KCLT High 97% Med 79% Med 66% Med 70%
KGSP High 90% High 86% High 81% Med 74%
KAVL High 86% High 84% High 82% High 92%
KHKY High 81% Med 76% Low 57% Med 60%
KGMU High 83% High 93% Med 78% Med 65%
KAND High 85% High 95% High 81% Med 66%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As previously advertised, a significant concern heading into what
may be a lengthy wet pattern is the very wet antecedent conditions
across our area. Precipitation totals over the past two weeks are
running 150 to 300 percent of normal across most of the region,
with some of the highest deviations from normal occurring across
the flood-prone Blue Ridge Escarpment. While most river systems
have receded to well-below bankfull levels following the heavy
rainfall event last week, ongoing rainfall is occurring over soils
that remain nearly if not completely saturated due to a insufficient
period of dry weather. With soils unable to absorb much additional
rainfall and vegetation entering winter dormancy, it will take
less rain than normal to produce substantial runoff. Given the
active pattern ahead, these conditions will only worsen with each
successive rain event until a prolonged period (at least 7-10 days)
of dry weather arrives.
While model guidance and the official forecast depicts an overall
downward trend in total precipitation with this first event through
today; high rainfall accumulations of 2-4" are still expected,
albeit primarily confined to the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment due
to the prevailing flow. Perhaps as much as 50-75% of this rainfall
will occur over a 12-hour period as the main passes through the area
today, which, when combined with the antecedent conditions, will
result in reasonably quick responses in the headwaters of the
Chattooga, Cullasaja, Little Tennessee, Nantahala, Tallulah,
Tuckasegee, and upper French Broad River basins basically from Rabun
County, GA and Macon County, NC east towards Henderson County, NC.
Rises along these rivers and associated tributaries are still
expected to cause areas of Minor flooding, which primarily affects
low-lying areas adjacent to streams including farmland, water
crossings, parks, and boat-access areas. The current rainfall
forecast has fortunately reduced, but not eliminated, the likelihood
of more significant flooding, at least through this first event.
However, there is still some uncertainty with exact rainfall totals
and placement and residents are still encouraged to closely monitor
any Flood Warnings and follow the latest river forecasts at:
https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp.
Elsewhere, significant stream response is still expected to cause
isolated Minor flooding. Furthermore, reservoirs remain high,
especially across the Catawba River system, and prolonged high
pools and resultant shoreline flooding appears likely given the
persistently wet pattern ahead. High pools and resultant reservoir
releases may also occur throughout several other systems including
along the Tallulah and Saluda Rivers. Regardless of how this
current event unfolds in terms of overall flooding, each successive
rainfall event will renew the flooding concerns through much of
next week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062-063.
SC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for SCZ001>014-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Carroll
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...Carroll
HYDROLOGY...JMPHazardous weather outlook, Dec 28, 4:10 AM EST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
410 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-290915-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
410 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia and most of the mountains of western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
Wind Advisory.
A stray rumble of thunder, and associated cloud-to-ground lightning
strike, cannot be ruled out today - especially in the southern
mountains this morning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
Additional heavy rainfall will be possible across the region Sunday
through Monday night, possibly causing more flooding.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds or
flooding to our office.
NCZ035-064-065-501>507-509-290915-
Alexander-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
410 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northwest piedmont,
northern foothills and eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains in
western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
Additional heavy rainfall will be possible across the region Sunday
through Monday night, possibly causing more flooding.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to our
office.
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-SCZ001>014-
019-290915-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
410 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont
and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today along and ahead of a
passing cold front. A few cloud to ground lightning strikes will be
possible as well as briefly gusty winds. An isolated severe
thunderstorm wind gust will be possible mainly in piedmont areas
southeast of Interstate 85 this afternoon.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
Additional heavy rainfall will be possible across the region Sunday
through Monday night, possibly causing more flooding.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds,
tornadoes, or flooding to our office.
HG
In the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 28, 4:39 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM FLOOD 5 E BREVARD 35.23N 82.64W
12/28/2018 TRANSYLVANIA NC 911 CALL CENTER
AREAS SOUTH OF PENROSE HAVE FLOODING WHERE CASCADE ROAD
AT MERRILL LANE IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
OUTLAWSpecial weather statement, Dec 28, 4:45 AM EST, 2 hours 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
445 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018
NCZ033-048>050-053-501-503-505-507-509-281300-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Mount Mitchell State Park, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville,
Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,
Lake Lure, and Saluda
445 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018
...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...
At 440 AM, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
broad area of moderate to heavy rainfall moving northward across
the North Carolina mountains. Radar and rain gauges indicated
rainfall rates of one-half to three-quarters of an inch per hour
in the heaviest downpours and this rain was falling on some locations
from Asheville to Newland that have received between 1 and 1.5
inches of rain over the past 12 hours.
Rapid rises on area streams and creeks will continue this morning
and a few locations could see rises above bankfull with associated
minor flooding. Deep ponding and running water may also develop in
low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Use caution if traveling in the central and northern mountains
this morning. Allow extra travel time, be on the lookout for water
covering or crossing the road, and do not attempt to drive
through any flooded roadways. Turn around and find another route.
HG
Local storm report, Dec 28, 4:53 AM EST, 2 hours 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM FLOOD 4 SSW BREVARD 35.18N 82.75W
12/28/2018 TRANSYLVANIA NC 911 CALL CENTER
ISLAND FORD ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
0400 AM FLOOD 5 SSW BREVARD 35.18N 82.78W
12/28/2018 TRANSYLVANIA NC 911 CALL CENTER
HANNAH FORD ROAD AND GREEN ROAD ARE CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.
&&
OUTLAWLocal storm report, Dec 28, 6:53 AM EST, 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 AM FLOOD HENDERSONVILLE 35.32N 82.46W
12/28/2018 HENDERSON NC BROADCAST MEDIA
WLOS IS REPORTING THE INTERSECTION OF WHITE ST. AND
GREENVILLE HWY. IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
JMP