A significant period of heavy rainfall produced river flooding and isolated flash flooding over north and central Georgia on December 28th. A strong low level jet interacted with a warm front over the I-85 corridor to produce periods of high rainfall amounts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
A significant period of heavy rainfall produced river flooding and isolated flash flooding over north and central Georgia on December 28th. A strong low level jet interacted with a warm front over the I-85 corridor to produce periods of high rainfall amounts. These amounts followed a prolonged rainy period in December, exacerbating the already soggy conditions over the state, and producing additional rises on already high rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 6:37 AM EST, 2 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 637 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... Significant wave of showers and embedded thunderstorms moved through the NW half of the area during the evening and first part of the overnight hours. This was largely due to a strong low level jet that interacted with a warm located along the I85 corridor on the west side and along I20 to the east. This produced around 2 inches in the last 6 hours from LaGrange to Newnan and portions of the metro. These areas also received close to an inch 8 to 12 hours ago bring totals up to around 3 inches with locally higher amounts. This has resulted in some localized flooding across the area although difficult to discern flash versus areal at this point with the multiple rounds of precip affecting these areas. Seeing a relative lull at the moment but next wave already forming over portions of Alabama along actual frontal boundary. Should see NW GA get in on the act first with most significant activity later this morning. Initially this line will not have much movement but front does eventually get some momentum with line moving through the metro by early afternoon. Current Flash Flood watch looks to cover these areas well and no changes planned there. May be able to cancel watch early given earlier expected clearing trend later tonight. Front will stall through Saturday and SW flow aloft will ensure deep layer moisture will continue to stream in. Some discrepancy in models as to where re-development of activity takes place with GFS and other global models indicating southern sections of the forecast area while convective allowing models indicate more along the I85 corridor and areas that have been seen the most rain. Have used a blend for now but kept likely pops over southern most sections for now but this will need to be refined. No significant gusts of note per latest mesonet obs and should be able to allow wind advisory expire at 12Z. Deese LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Long term period will be punctuated by a prolonged wet period. The upper level low will move across northern Mexico Saturday night into Monday with deep moist southwest flow feeding periods of showers. A warm front will lift northward Sunday, and a cold front will move into the area late Monday as the now upper level wave pushes the surface low through the Mississippi, Tennessee Valleys onto the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of the cold front. The cold front slowly pushes through the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as the next upper level low digs into the desert southwest. As the upper low ejects across the Gulf Coast states by the end of the week, surface low pushes the front through the forecast area by the end of the week. Current rainfall totals for Saturday night through Wednesday morning are in the 1.5 to 3 inch range. With already saturated soils and multiple days of rainfall, the threat for flash flooding in addition to river flooding will continue for several days. Have stayed close to guidance temperatures through the extended period, which brings near freezing temperatures into portions of north Georgia Thursday morning which would support a mix of rain and snow briefly Thursday morning. At this time any accumulations will be an inch or less. Atwell PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 108 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018/ .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... IFR conditions for the most part but periodic lines of SHRA have allowed for temporary improvements. Overall, expect continued bands of SHRA for first part of today along with continued IFR/LIFR conditions due to cigs. Winds to become SW early afternoon and coincide with a second round of heavy SHRA with embedded TSRA. It will take awhile for front to clear with a prolonged period of -RA through 04Z. Improvement to MVFR looks to be delayed now for the overnight period Sat night. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... Medium on LIFR duration. High on remaining elements. Deese && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 65 48 65 49 / 100 50 20 60 Atlanta 66 47 60 50 / 100 40 20 60 Blairsville 61 40 58 44 / 100 20 5 50 Cartersville 65 43 57 45 / 100 20 5 50 Columbus 69 55 64 54 / 100 60 60 60 Gainesville 62 45 62 48 / 100 30 5 50 Macon 70 56 66 55 / 100 70 60 60 Rome 65 41 56 45 / 100 10 5 50 Peachtree City 67 48 62 49 / 100 50 40 60 Vidalia 75 62 70 60 / 90 80 60 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts... Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee... Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Dade...Dawson... DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer... Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson... Harris...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar... Lumpkin...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan... Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee... Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Putnam... Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro... Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton... Warren...White...Whitfield...Wilkes. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for the following zones: Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee... Cobb...Dade...Dawson...Douglas...Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer... Gordon...Haralson...Lumpkin...Murray...Paulding...Pickens... Polk...Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield. && SHORT TERM...Deese LONG TERM....Atwell AVIATION...Deese
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 558 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-291100- Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa- Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta- Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel- Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene- Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson- Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon- Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray- Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach- Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton- Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs- Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren- Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes- Wilkinson- 558 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight... Showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the area through tonight. Locally heavy rain and brief strong wind gusts can be expected, especially in the higher terrain of north Georgia. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tomorrow morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday... Several rounds of showers will continue into next week, with isolated thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday. Much of the area could see 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible. This rainfall will increase the river and stream flood threat once again as grounds remain wet from recent rains. Localized flash flooding will also be a concern in flood prone areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
828 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2018
GAZ042-052-053-281400-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
828 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COWETA...SOUTHERN
CARROLL AND NORTHERN HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EST...
At 828 AM EST...a thunderstorm was over Napoleon, or 10 miles east
of Wedowee...moving northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.
Some locations in the path of this storm include
Carrollton, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Whitesburg, Ephesus, Centralhatchee,
Roopville, Plant Yates, Bowdon Junction, Tyus, Handy, Roosterville,
Seaton Lake, Clem, Frolona, John Tanner State Park, Lowell, Plant
Wansley and Blackjack Mountain.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.
LAT...LON 3367 8515 3358 8493 3338 8485 3326 8526
3349 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 233DEG 46KT 3334 8531
WIND...40MPHThe Greer radar (KGSP), 139 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:34 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency Manager reported a significant amount of water over Carolina Springs Road, just south of Helen Highway, due to a creek overflowing its banks. Radar estimates indicated 3 to 5 inches of rain occurred in a short time, and locally higher amounts were possible.
Lumpkin County Sheriff reported to local newspaper that a swift water rescue was performed around 9 AM long Clay Creek. Water remained high through the morning due to increased runoff from the heavy rainfall. Radar estimates indicate that 3 to 5 inches of rain occurred in a short period of time, with locally higher amounts possible.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 798847, 798848.