Hail in Florida, June 10, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...Some Strong to Few Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon Into
Early This Evening...

.UPDATE...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic Waters will continue to
remain nearly stationary today, as the mid to upper level low over
the Eastern Gulf of Mexico drifts a little bit to the east. This
will keep the wind flow light over South Florida, and allow for
both the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push
slowly inland. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are possible again late this morning into the
afternoon hours with the best coverage over the interior areas.

The 500 mb temps from the 12Z MIA sounding this morning was
around -10.5C, and the forecast short range models show it
cooling to around -11C this afternoon. This will allow for some
of the storms to become strong to even severe this afternoon into
early this evening especially over the interior areas where the
sea breezes collide. The primary impacts will be gusty winds,
hail, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy rainfall.

Therefore, have increase the thunder threat over the interior
areas from scattered to numerous conditions for the afternoon
hours today. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no
other changes are planned.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 728 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018/

AVIATION...
The winds will be southeast around 5 to 10 knots today over most
of the taf sites, except for KAPF taf site where the winds will
become westerly after 17Z. VCTS will continue for the east coast
taf sites from 14Z through 19/20Z for the east coast taf sites
today, then VCSH until 00Z. For KAPF taf site, VCTS from 17Z until
00Z today, then VCSH from 00Z through 02Z. The ceiling and vis
will remain in VFR conditions, but could fall down into MVFR or
even IFR conditions with any passage of showers or thunderstorms
over the taf sites. A short term tempo will be put in place once
the shower and thunderstorm activity develops later today for the
timing.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows weak cyclonic flow from an upper
level low pressure system, centered north of Tampa. This synoptic
feature continues to drag abundant mid and upper level moisture
northward from the Florida Straights over our region, as
satellite derived PWAT values range between 1.75" and 2.00". NWS
radar is now relatively quite with only a few showers passing
over the Atlantic waters. Both the HRRR and HiRes WRF models prog
additional showers/storms to develop over the Atlantic through
mid morning with mainly dry conditions inland. The aforementioned
dissipating low will keep cyclonic flow in the mid and upper
levels today with relatively cool air aloft. GFS 500 mb
temperatures drop to -9C or -10C, which should lead to more
favorable instability parameters. As with the past several days,
the main threat from late morning and afternoon thunderstorms
will consist of minor flooding due to heavy rain, cloud to ground
lightning, small hail, and marginally severe wind gusts.
Convection this afternoon may affect just about any part of the
CWA, driven by randomly colliding outflow boundaries.

Early to mid week: Surface high pressure will slowly build near
Bermuda. This should maintain the weak south or southeast flow
pattern, which is typical of the wet season. Deep moisture is
expected to advect in from the south, as GFS forecast PWAT values
generally reside above 1.75". Nocturnal activity can not be ruled
out as well, especially tonight into Monday, as vorticity maxima
lift towards South Florida from the Straits. Due to the extensive
mid and upper level cloud cover during the period, maximum
temperatures are only forecast upper 80s, a few degrees below
normal for this time of year.

Late next week: Long range models do not agree on the same
solution. The GFS models lifts a tropical feature north of the
Yucatan and edges it westward, away from Florida. This scenario
would eventually allow for drier air and subsidence over our
region and a decrease in shower and storm activity. The ECMWF
model, on the hand, maintains a deep moist layer over South
Florida through Saturday or Sunday. This would allow elevated
precipitation chances to continue. Given the long range GFS seems
to be performing rather poorly lately, would be more inclined to
believe the ECMWF solution.

MARINE...
Light east or southeast winds will prevail through the forecast
period with the influence of the Bermuda high. Thus, seas will be
rather flat, mainly 1 to 2 feet. Expect a chance of showers and
thunderstorms both during the days and at and night, as abundant
tropical moisture continues to stream north over the waters. These
storms may produce gusty winds and generate brief periods of
rough seas.

AVIATION...
SHRA/occasional TSRA vcnty east coast sites through
remainder of overnight, with potential for brief MVFR conditions
at KTMB over next two hours. Additional SHRA/TSRA developing on
seabreezes after 15Z east coast/17Z west coast, focusing towards
interior after 21Z or so. Timing at KAPF a little more uncertain,
so haven't included tempo at this time, but a little stronger SE
flow may bring more activity closer to site this
afternoon/evening.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  87  74  87  75 /  50  20  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  87  77 /  50  20  50  40
Miami            87  76  87  77 /  50  20  50  40
Naples           88  74  88  75 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...54/BNB

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
110200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...Scattered to Numerous Storms Across South Florida Again Today...
...A Few Strong/Severe Storms Possible Mainly Interior/West Coast Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
again across South Florida today. Activity is expected along the east
coast metro late this morning into the early afternoon hours, with
the highest coverage across the interior and Gulf coast this
afternoon and evening. The primary threats are lightning, hail,
gusty winds, and localized minor flooding.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible over the Atlantic
waters late this morning, and across the remainder of South Florida
waters through the day.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts to around 60 mph, especially across the interior
and Gulf coast with boundary collisions later today.

Hail: Small hail up to quarter size is possible with the strongest
storms today especially over the interior and west coast metro
areas.

Flooding: Slow moving thunderstorms will bring the threat of minor
flooding of streets and poor drainage areas, especially for urban
locations across South Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, generally along the
east coast during the overnight and morning hours, and across the
interior and Gulf coast during the afternoons and evenings. The
primary threat will be lightning, although gusty winds and locally
heavy rain are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Baxter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1141 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     WATER SPOUT      17 ESE JUNO BEACH       26.82N  79.78W
06/10/2018                   AMZ650             FL   AIRPLANE PILOT

            A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED BY A PILOT AT 1123 AM 23
            NAUTICAL MILES NE OF PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
            POSITION ADJUSTED BY A COUPLE MILES BASED ON DOPPLER
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1800188

HAGEN