On the evening of September 3rd, heavy rain and thunderstorms developed over the Hayden Pass burn scar. 5-2 inches of rain fell over the eastern half of the burn scar.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
On the evening of September 3rd, heavy rain and thunderstorms developed over the Hayden Pass burn scar. Doppler radar estimated 1.5-2 inches of rain fell over the eastern half of the burn scar. An Areal Flood Advisory was issued at 408 PM MDT and then upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning at 412 PM MDT.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 6, 2:04 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 304 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 304 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018 Currently... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were over the region at 2 pm. Most of the storms were over the SW mtns and NW of the Pikes peak region, although light showers were over the far eastern plains per earlier KLAA observations. Skies were generally mostly cloudy most of the area. It was relatively quite moist over the region with dwpts in the 60s over the far eastern plains with 50s dwpts along the I-25 corridor. 40s were noted in the mtns. PWATS were above 1.0" on the plains. A short wave was noted in the water vapor imagery over NW CO. Rest of Today and into tonight... Most of the activity during the next several hours is fcst to be over the greater Pikes Peak region, with the activity building south along the mtns/plains interface later this evening. Scattered showers will continue over all of the higher terrain and is likely to continue through the night, although the coverage is expected to gradually decrease with time. Some of the rain may be locally heavy, but CAPE is somewhat lacking over the region this afternoon. (Sounding show the CAPE is rather deep, but it is "skinny" on the soundings). Likewise, I dont anticipate any prolonged heavy rain in any areas this afternoon or evening. Showers and a few storms will likely continue across the plains through the night time hours, with the activity moving slowly south and east with time. With plenty of moisture over the region later tonight, a low overcast is likely going to develop across most if not all of the plains. Friday... Low clouds will be slow to break, and expect most areas will remain cloudy though late to mid morning (or maybe early afternoon in some locals). Showers will likely be ongoing tomorrow, with the brunt of it located in the greater Spanish Peak/Raton Mesa region. Drier air will begin infiltrating the region from the NW by tomorrow afternoon, and we should see a decrease in precip over this region. Best chance of storms tomorrow over the higher terrain will generally be south of US50. Showers and isold tsra will be possible over the plains. Steering flow will transition to NW tomorrow so storms will move to the southeast tomorrow. Max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018 Recent computer simulations/data/etc. as well as forecast model soundings indicate that Friday night should experience isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring southern and western locations as next upper disturbance interacts with adequate atmospheric moisture. Recent moisture analysis suggests that deepest moisture plume should be aligned from the southern Colorado I-25 corridor into Central New Mexico by Friday evening. Airmass is then expected to briefly dry out over southern Colorado from Saturday into Sunday with isolated to nil pops anticipated in combination with warmer temperatures in advance of upper ridging building into southern Arizona during this time-frame. A brief period of increased pops are projected from Sunday evening into Sunday night as next upper disturbance impacts the region. Will continue with motif of isolated to scattered pops over the majority of the forecast district from Monday afternoon into Monday evening as next shortwave interacts with continued available atmospheric moisture. Then, warmest temperatures during the longer term(with projected Tuesday through Thursday maximum temperatures nearing/exceeding 90F over many eastern locations) in combination with basically nil pops are anticipated over the majority of the CWA from Tuesday into Thursday as upper ridging becomes established over southern Colorado by next Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 304 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018 Low cigs and showers along with isold tsra will be the main concern this afternoon into the early morning hours at KCOS and KPUB. Showers and storms will move onto the plains by late this afternoon and are expected to linger through the night time hours. Low cigs (IFR) will likely develop at both KCOS and KPUB during the early morning hours and last into mid to late morning. VFR should return by tomorrow afternoon. KALS may see a passing shower or tsra this afternoon or early evening then VFR. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1129 AM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018 COZ058>089-093>099-071730- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1129 AM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southwest and central mountains early this afternoon, with showers and storms increasing in coverage as they spread east across the high mountain valleys, through the eastern mountains and immediate adjacent plains, this afternoon through the late evening hours. Storms will capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, which will pose the threat of flash flooding, especially if the storms occur, or move over the newer burn scars of the Spring, Junkins and Hayden Pass wildfires. Other storm threats include lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph, with small hail also possible with the stronger storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across southern Colorado on Friday. Drier conditions are expected Saturday, but there may still be some isolated storms over some of the mountains. A couple weather disturbances moving over the area Sunday and Monday are expected to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The main storm threats will be lightning, locally heavy rain, and wind gusts up to 45 mph. Some of the stronger storms may also produce small hail. If locally heavy rain impacts a recent burn scar, there may be a flash flood risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly from the I-25 corridor and westward. Hodanish
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
251 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2018
COZ081-082-084-062130-
Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
251 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TELLER AND WESTERN EL
PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...
At 251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Florissant, or 26 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Woodland Park, Green Mountain Falls, Divide, Crystola and Florissant.
LAT...LON 3903 10491 3880 10516 3892 10533 3905 10533
3913 10525 3913 10508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 311DEG 15KT 3903 10523
KTSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Law Enforcement reported major flash flooding along Butter Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 783244.