Hail in Colorado, June 23, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...Fire Weather Conditions West, A Few Severe Storms Possible for
the Eastern Plains...

Currently...generally quiet conditions for the time being across
much of southern Colorado.  Radar indicates isolated to scattered
convection to our north and northeast.  Satellite indicates a few
towering cumulus along the I-25 corridor, moving eastward.  Radar
also indicates a surface low north of Trinidad, which is pulling
moisture northward in southerly flow across the Plains.  Lead energy
around an upper level low dropping into Wyoming will act as a
forcing mechanism as we go through the afternoon, triggering a few
strong to severe storms across the Plains this afternoon.  The
strongest storms are likely to impact areas east of a Fowler to
Trinchera line.  The primary threats will be lightning, hail in
excess of one inch in diameter and winds greater 60 mph. Over the
western half of the CWA, critical fire weather conditions will
continue into this evening due to gusty westerly winds, low relative
humidity values and dry fuels.  Any outdoor burning should be
postponed until another day. Temperatures are warm with 80s to lower
90s across the region.

Tonight...expect the threat for severe weather to continue through
the evening.  High-res models have been steadily increasing
thunderstorm coverage over the Eastern Plains for this evening,
before shifting activity east into Kansas overnight.  The greatest
severe weather potential will be through 9 pm, before shifting
eastward.  Later tonight, a cold front associated with the upper
level low pressure system over Central Wyoming will drop south into
the Palmer Divide.  Models have really slowed down the arrival of
the cold front.  Current high-res solutions have the frontal
boundary dropping into the Palmer Divide and along the I-25 corridor
by Sunday morning.  Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and lower
60s across the region.

Sunday...the upper level low will move eastward into Nebraska
through Sunday afternoon.  The cold front associated with the low
pressure system will surge southward through the early afternoon
hours, clearing the eastern Plains.  Models in good agreement with
showers and thunderstorms developing over the Palmer Divide, south
along the Eastern Mountains into the Raton Mesa area.  The primary
threats will be lightning, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.
Further east across the Plains, much will depend on where the
dryline sets up.  Current models have the dryline well into western
Kansas by the afternoon with much of the severe thunderstorm
potential well to the east.  There may be a brief opportunity for a
severe storm or two along the cold front as it moves south through
Baca county, as some models are developing strong convection there.
Temperatures will be cooler across the region behind the cold front
with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Lingering precip over the eastern mountains and plains should end
fairly quickly Sunday evening as upslope flow wanes and upper low
shifts into the central plains. Flat upper ridge then builds over
the swrn U.S. from early to midweek before center of the upper
high slips east into TX from late week into the weekend. This
pattern will bring mainly dry and hot conditions to southern CO
through the week, with Wed/Thu looking the warmest as upper level
heights/mid level temps peak. Some slight cooling then develops by
week's end as high shifts east and upper trough deepens over the
Pacific NW, though trade-off will be increasing winds as mid level
swly flow begins to increase on Thu. Could see strong enough winds
for critical fire weather conditions from late week into the
weekend, as any mid level moisture influx won't likely begin until
late Sat or Sun at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

VFR conditions at all three terminals through this evening. Winds
have been slow to increase and turn westerly at KALS.  Expect a few
wind gusts to near 25 kts through this evening.  Tonight, a cold
front will arrive at KCOS and KPUB, with a northerly wind shift.
Expect gusty northerly winds after 10z/Sun at both terminals.
Lowered CIGS are also possible behind the front, and showers and/or
thunderstorms are expected after 18z, especially at KCOS. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222>225.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ224.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 AM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-241730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1129 AM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of the southeast plains and Pikes Peak region this
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will initially form over the
Palmer Divide, and move southeast across the Eastern Plains
through this evening. One or two strong to severe storms are
possible east of a Fowler to Trinchera line. Thunderstorms that do
become severe will be capable of producing large hail in excess of
one inch in diameter along with wind gusts over 60 mph.

Across the mountains and valleys, gusty southwest winds will bring a
return of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and
evening.  Any activities which could start a wildfire should be
avoided as any fires may spread quickly out of control.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
Sunday from the eastern mountains and foothills into the
southeastern Colorado plains, with a few severe thunderstorms
possible over these locations. The primary threats with the
stronger to potentially severe Thunderstorms on Sunday will be
large hail, damaging winds, hazardous lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

In addition, isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of
producing lightning, gusty winds and small hail are anticipated
over southern Colorado, primarily during the afternoon and
evening hours from Monday into Friday.

Also, gusty winds, low humidity values and dry fuels will be
capable of producing near critical to critical fire weather
conditions over the San Luis Valley Sunday and then over portions
of southern Colorado, from Wednesday through Friday. Please
remember that activities which could start a fire should be
avoided.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible east of a Fowler to Trinchera line this afternoon and
evening.

88/88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

COZ088-094-232215-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
328 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 328 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Model, or 28 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving east
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Las Animas
County.

LAT...LON 3725 10413 3743 10414 3750 10363 3723 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 266DEG 19KT 3735 10404

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
353 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

COZ084-232215-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
353 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 353 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ramah, or 32 miles west of Limon, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Ramah.

LAT...LON 3895 10405 3908 10448 3913 10445 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 274DEG 29KT 3913 10426

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
419 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

COZ084-085-232245-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
419 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

At 419 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Ramah, or 29 miles southwest of Limon, moving east at
30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern El
Paso County.

LAT...LON 3887 10406 3898 10427 3913 10413 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 286DEG 25KT 3901 10413

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
501 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

COZ093-097-232330-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
501 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO AND WEST
CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 500 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Timpas, or 14 miles southwest of La Junta, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee and Timpas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 10382 3791 10379 3793 10336 3767 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 276DEG 26KT 3783 10373

BL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
505 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

COZ094-232345-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
505 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 505 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Branson, or 28 miles north of Des Moines, moving east
at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 10399 3727 10398 3727 10343 3703 10346
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 273DEG 24KT 3717 10390

BL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
532 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

COZ093-097-240015-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
532 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO AND
SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 531 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Higbee, or 12 miles south of North La Junta, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3777 10359 3789 10357 3790 10315 3766 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 274DEG 22KT 3780 10350

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