Damaging Winds in Colorado, July 23, 2018

Name: Damaging Winds in Colorado, July 23, 2018
Start: 2018-07-23T15:43
End: 2018-07-23T16:55
Location: Colorado

July 23, 2018 · NWS PUB · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Severe thunderstorm wind gusts near 60 mph were observed near Fort Carson, while a 78 mph thunderstorm wind gust was measured at the Pueblo airport near Pueblo during the afternoon of the 23rd.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.

Severe thunderstorm wind gusts near 60 mph were observed near Fort Carson, while a 78 mph thunderstorm wind gust was measured at the Pueblo airport near Pueblo during the afternoon of the 23rd.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 2:13 PM MST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 2:13 PM MST, 1 hour 30 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
313 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...Heavy rain and severe storms possible through this evening...

Currently...

Bulk shear is running higher than previously expected...40-50
knots across parts of the Pikes Peak Region. Additionally, Mixed
Layer CAPES are running an estimated 1,000-2,000 J/kg. With
steepening mid level lapse rates through the afternoon, should all
be sufficient for rotating storms. Plus, high res models are
showing supercellular structures, particularly over the Pikes
Peak Region. As storms continue to evolve through the afternoon
into the evening, bowing structures noted...suggestive of high
wind potential. Also, some initial quarter size hail possible
mountains and immediately adjacent plains as storms get going
this afternoon. So, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect
until 7 this evening. The Flash Flood Watch also remains in
effect. Busy weather ahead in the short term. lw

For later tonight...HRRR shows a secondary round of stronger
convection moving across the greater Pikes Peak region from mid
evening to around midnight. Dunno if this will come to pass as
HRRR is notorious for producing 2nd rounds of storms and not
materializing (or much weaker than initially forecasted). For now
will draw up fcst based on HRRR output and keep convection going
through the nighttime hours going on the plains.

Tomorrow...

Anticipate most of the activity tomorrow will be over the mountains
as plains at this time appear to be too stable and relatively drier.
With precip over the mtns, burn scar flooding will be the main
concern tomorrow, especially the Spring burn scar.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...Active Thunderstorm and Locally Heavy Rain Pattern to Continue...

Southern Colorado will remain in an active monsoon pattern through
the week.  The center of a large upper level high pressure system
will remain over the southwest U.S. through the period.  This will
allow monsoon moisture to rotate around the high, adjoin with
shortwaves moving over the top of the ridge, and then enter the
eastern plains through the back door.  Forecast models have
shortwaves moving through the stronger flow to the north, clipping
southern Colorado almost daily through the weekend, before things
start to dry out early next week.  This is a good setup for rain
across the eastern slopes and plains as each shortwave will help to
initiate and organize convection.  Also, each shortwave will likely
send a boundary south which will help to focus low level moisture.
The combination of the two will help to realize all the monsoonal
moisture that is available in the atmosphere. With each day that
passes this week, antecedent soil moisture will increase. As a
result, the flash flood threat will escalate over time. Burn scars
will be primary targets for flash flooding through the week but
urban areas will also be prime targets.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Thunderstorms and low cigs will be the primary issues at KCOS and
KPUB rest of today and this evening. Storms will move over the
region this afternoon, with a secondary round being indicated by the
short range guidance later this evening. Low cigs will be likely at
both KPUB and KCOS tonight into tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will
likely remain over the mtns tomorrow.

KALS will be VFR, with isold TSRA during the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>089-
093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 10:48 AM MST, 4 hours 55 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-241800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening across the
region. High resolution guidance continues to indicate
thunderstorms, capable of producing very heavy rain, will develop
by mid afternoon and and move southeast across the southern
mountains and then I-25 corridor region. Some of these models
explicitly show intense storms moving over the Colorado Springs
and Pueblo regions. Heavy rain is also being indicated over the
numerous burn scars, especially Waldo Canyon. Heavy rain will also
be possible over the remainder of the plains.

In addition to the heavy rain potential, severe thunderstorms
will be possible across the area, and these storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail up to teh size
of ping pong balls.

An additional round of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rain will be possible later this evening across the region.

Residents and visitors alike should be weather aware today and
tonight, and be prepared to seek safe shelter if dangerous
weather develops.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Moisture will remain in place across the area throughout the
week, and thunderstorms will be possible each day. At this time
the best chance for widespread storms will be Wednesday, Thursday
and Saturday, with the eastern mountains and plains having the
best chance for heavy rainfall. The main threats from storms will
be locally heavy downpours, small hail, wind gusts to 45 mph and
lightning. There will the potential for flash flooding each day,
especially on recent burn scars. By late week, some severe
thunderstorms may be possible as winds aloft increase over the
eastern plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
highly likely this afternoon and tonight across the eastern
mountains and plains.

Hodanish

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 23, 2:44 PM MST, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
344 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             WOODLAND PARK           39.00N 105.05W
07/23/2018  M1.00 INCH       TELLER             CO   PUBLIC

            MEDIA HAS A VIDEO OF 1 INCH HAIL ON THE EAST
            SIDE OF WOODLAND PARK.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 3:15 PM MST, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
415 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             1 WNW WOODLAND PARK     39.00N 105.06W
07/23/2018  M0.50 INCH       TELLER             CO   PUBLIC

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 3:23 PM MST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 E CHIPITA PARK        38.92N 104.99W
07/23/2018                   EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            MILE MARKER 291 ON HWY 24 THERE HAS BEEN
            REPORTS OF A DEBRIS FLOW.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 3:26 PM MST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE GREEN MOUNTAIN FA 38.94N 105.02W
07/23/2018                   EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING OF FOUNTAIN CREEK AT GREEN MOUNTAIN
            FALLS. CREEK IS OUT OF BANKS.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 3:32 PM MST, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
432 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             2 N BLACK FOREST        39.05N 104.70W
07/23/2018  M0.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Local storm report, Jul 23, 3:43 PM MST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
443 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S COLORADO SPRINGS    38.77N 104.83W
07/23/2018  E60 MPH          EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 66 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:40 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, El Paso

When: July 23, 3:43 PM MST
Where: El Paso County, 3.86 mi NW of Ft Carson
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 38.770, -104.830

Pea-sized hail also noted.

Thunderstorm Wind, Pueblo

When: July 23, 4:55 PM MST
Where: Pueblo County, 1.08 mi E of (Pub)pueblo Muni Arp
Measured: 68 kt (78 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Official NWS Observations
Coordinates: 38.290, -104.500

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Colorado in 2018 Every state in 2018 This day in weather history Warnings in Colorado, July 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 772714, 772715.