Anomalously strong northwesterly flow, monsoonal moisture, and southeasterly upslope flow sparked thunderstorms over the mountains. Antecedent conditions and heavy rainfall rates caused flooding and debris flows over Fremont County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Anomalously strong northwesterly flow, monsoonal moisture, and southeasterly upslope flow sparked thunderstorms over the mountains. Antecedent conditions and heavy rainfall rates caused flooding and debris flows over Fremont County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 2:13 PM MST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 313 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...Heavy rain and severe storms possible through this evening... Currently... Bulk shear is running higher than previously expected...40-50 knots across parts of the Pikes Peak Region. Additionally, Mixed Layer CAPES are running an estimated 1,000-2,000 J/kg. With steepening mid level lapse rates through the afternoon, should all be sufficient for rotating storms. Plus, high res models are showing supercellular structures, particularly over the Pikes Peak Region. As storms continue to evolve through the afternoon into the evening, bowing structures noted...suggestive of high wind potential. Also, some initial quarter size hail possible mountains and immediately adjacent plains as storms get going this afternoon. So, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 7 this evening. The Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect. Busy weather ahead in the short term. lw For later tonight...HRRR shows a secondary round of stronger convection moving across the greater Pikes Peak region from mid evening to around midnight. Dunno if this will come to pass as HRRR is notorious for producing 2nd rounds of storms and not materializing (or much weaker than initially forecasted). For now will draw up fcst based on HRRR output and keep convection going through the nighttime hours going on the plains. Tomorrow... Anticipate most of the activity tomorrow will be over the mountains as plains at this time appear to be too stable and relatively drier. With precip over the mtns, burn scar flooding will be the main concern tomorrow, especially the Spring burn scar. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...Active Thunderstorm and Locally Heavy Rain Pattern to Continue... Southern Colorado will remain in an active monsoon pattern through the week. The center of a large upper level high pressure system will remain over the southwest U.S. through the period. This will allow monsoon moisture to rotate around the high, adjoin with shortwaves moving over the top of the ridge, and then enter the eastern plains through the back door. Forecast models have shortwaves moving through the stronger flow to the north, clipping southern Colorado almost daily through the weekend, before things start to dry out early next week. This is a good setup for rain across the eastern slopes and plains as each shortwave will help to initiate and organize convection. Also, each shortwave will likely send a boundary south which will help to focus low level moisture. The combination of the two will help to realize all the monsoonal moisture that is available in the atmosphere. With each day that passes this week, antecedent soil moisture will increase. As a result, the flash flood threat will escalate over time. Burn scars will be primary targets for flash flooding through the week but urban areas will also be prime targets. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018 Thunderstorms and low cigs will be the primary issues at KCOS and KPUB rest of today and this evening. Storms will move over the region this afternoon, with a secondary round being indicated by the short range guidance later this evening. Low cigs will be likely at both KPUB and KCOS tonight into tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will likely remain over the mtns tomorrow. KALS will be VFR, with isold TSRA during the afternoon and evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>089- 093>099. && SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...LW AVIATION...HODANISH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018 COZ058>089-093>099-241800- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening across the region. High resolution guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms, capable of producing very heavy rain, will develop by mid afternoon and and move southeast across the southern mountains and then I-25 corridor region. Some of these models explicitly show intense storms moving over the Colorado Springs and Pueblo regions. Heavy rain is also being indicated over the numerous burn scars, especially Waldo Canyon. Heavy rain will also be possible over the remainder of the plains. In addition to the heavy rain potential, severe thunderstorms will be possible across the area, and these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail up to teh size of ping pong balls. An additional round of thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain will be possible later this evening across the region. Residents and visitors alike should be weather aware today and tonight, and be prepared to seek safe shelter if dangerous weather develops. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Moisture will remain in place across the area throughout the week, and thunderstorms will be possible each day. At this time the best chance for widespread storms will be Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday, with the eastern mountains and plains having the best chance for heavy rainfall. The main threats from storms will be locally heavy downpours, small hail, wind gusts to 45 mph and lightning. There will the potential for flash flooding each day, especially on recent burn scars. By late week, some severe thunderstorms may be possible as winds aloft increase over the eastern plains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be highly likely this afternoon and tonight across the eastern mountains and plains. Hodanish
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
605 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0555 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.80N 104.85W
07/23/2018 M1.44 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
610 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0610 PM HAIL 2 W BOONE 38.25N 104.29W
07/23/2018 M1.75 INCH PUEBLO CO PUBLIC
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
615 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0447 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.85N 104.85W
07/23/2018 M1.80 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1.8 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
617 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0616 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSE FOUNTAIN 38.63N 104.69W
07/23/2018 EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
STALLED VEHICLE AT UNDERPASS OF I-25 AT EXIT
125.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
620 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM HAIL 3 WSW BLENDE 38.22N 104.61W
07/23/2018 M1.00 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
623 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0622 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW COLORADO SPRINGS 38.79N 104.85W
07/23/2018 M2.75 INCH EL PASO CO AMATEUR RADIO
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MEASURED - LOCATION IS
APPROXIMATED.
&&
STARKThe Pueblo radar (KPUX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:45 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement indicated that highway 9, seven miles north of highway 50, was impassable due to a debris flow.
State patrol reported that there was debris and flooding over highway 115 at mile marker 7.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 772681, 772683.