A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 12 miles northeast of Norwood near Sanborn Park.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire about 12 miles northeast of Norwood near Sanborn Park.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 9:45 AM MST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1045 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 426 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018 The forecast area was on the eastern edge of an east-west oriented oval of mid-level high pressure centered over southern California early this morning. Meanwhile, a shallow short-wave trough moving through the zonal flow north of the high was responsible for an eastward propagating quasi-liner convective system (QLCS) just west of the Green River at 09Z which stretched from the western Tavaputs to the western Uinta Basin. Hires models a disappointment as none were picking up on this feature this morning. Expect showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with the QLCS will hold together over the next several hours, so in the absence of model guidance will extrapolate the wave's movement. Radar indicated the wave was moving east at 15 kts so expect showers and thunderstorms will push across the Green River passing over east-central and northeast Utah before 12Z, then across west- central and portions of northwest Colorado from 12Z to 14Z before it diminishes toward midmorning. During the remainder of the day, the destabilizing influence of diurnal warming will drive temperatures beyond the convective temperature resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain with the San Juan Mountains expected to see the greatest coverage. North to northwest flow will cause storms to move from higher terrain over adjacent lower elevations of the Four Corners late this afternoon into the early evening. Precipitable water values remain near an inch over the Four Corners and this, combined with slow storm movement and antecedent precipitation could result in additional debris flows across the Burro and 416 burn scars. A Flash Flood Watch was hoisted Monday afternoon to address these concerns and will be in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT this evening. Excessive rainfall poses less of a threat to the Lake Christine burn scar as moisture levels are expected to remain lower and storms less numerous than over the San Juans. Expect the usual downturn in moist convection by sunset with GFS and Canadian hinting at a few lingering showers over the south after midnight. This may occur, but will end showers in the early morning hours tonight with this package. High positioning described in the first paragraph persists into Wednesday which will allow drier air from the northwest to continue to erode the subtropical moisture over the area. As a result, the region will see a downturn in shower and thunderstorm coverage during the late morning and afternoon periods. Latest model guidance suggests low end scattered coverage in the San Juan Mountains so doubtful that a Flash Flood Watch will be needed Wednesday. Storms will be more isolated over the central and northern mountain ranges of the forecast area Wednesday. No big changes in temperatures in store today and tonight, though models suggested a couple of degrees of cooling across the northern and central portions of the forecast area. Fewer clouds expected with a drier airmass over the area on Wednesday, so look for a small jump in afternoon highs. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 426 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018 High pressure will remain to the west Thursday which will allow drier air from the northwest to continue erode the subtropical moisture over the region. As a result, expect Thursday afternoon and evening will be another down period with respect to moist convection. However, the mid-level high pressure center migrates to the southeast on Friday marking the beginning of a slow increase in moisture over the region. Rising moisture levels will fuel increased afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will be hot Thursday and Friday in response to the inverse relationship between low level moisture and cloud cover. However, as moisture levels increase over the weekend into early next week, expect temperatures to slowly decline. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1034 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018 VFR will be the prevailing conditions across the area today. Drier air moving into areas north of I-70 will cause less thunderstorm development, but moist air remains in place over the southern half of the area. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southern mountains after 1400, with isolated showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of northern area. There is 30 to 50 percent chance of storms impacting KGUC, KTEX and KDRO from 20Z through 01Z this evening. Should storms move over these airfields brief MVFR visibility in heavy rain would be likely, with outflow winds to 35 MPH possible. Outflow winds from nearby storms are possible at all TAF sites as well. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ019-022. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...CC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 448 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181100- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 448 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain from late morning into the afternoon and are expected to linger well into the evening. Severe weather is not expected, however some cells will be capable of generating excessive rainfall which may lead to rock fall and debris flows in steep terrain. Fresh burn scars, most notably from the 416, Burro and Lake Christine fires are particularly susceptible to debris flows and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the 416 and Burro burn scars from noon to 9 PM MDT this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day the rest of the week, mainly over the mountains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Tarantula Fire began due to lightning ignition about 12 miles northeast of Norwood and grew to a total of 112 acres before it was contained.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 757922.