Thunderstorms development over the Spring Burn Scar brought heavy rain north of Highway 160 over the Fork Creek Tributaries and the Abeyta Creek Tributaries. Delayed reports from the Huerfano County Emergency Manager confirmed flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Thunderstorms development over the Spring Burn Scar brought heavy rain north of Highway 160 over the Fork Creek Tributaries and the Abeyta Creek Tributaries. Delayed reports from the Huerfano County Emergency Manager confirmed flash flooding. There was a flash flood warning issued about an hour before flooding occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 10:56 PM MST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1156 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 Cancelled the FFA for the Pikes Peak region, with the threat of heavy rain likely diminished for the rest of night. FFA continues for tomorrow afternoon for the newer burn areas across the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mts. Looking at the 00Z run of the NAM, would tend to believe its QPF is overdone, however, I have kept scattered pops across the I-25 Corridor past midnight, with the area of showers and associated lift currently translating south and east across northeastern Colorado. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...Heavy rainfall expected with the potential for flash flooding greatest across the Pikes Peak region and newer burn scars in the southeast mountains... Currently...radar indicates slow moving thunderstorms developing across the region. A couple of stronger cells have developed over El Paso County and radar estimates of 1 to 3 inches have fallen near Ellicot. Elsewhere, slow moving thunderstorms continue to develop and so far have missed burn scars. It should be noted that if one of these storms moves over a burn scar, rain rates will be high and flash flooding possible through much of tonight. At the surface, a cold front is currently dropping south to near Highway 50 across the Plains. Ahead of this front, southeast flow and abundant moisture remain across the Plains, while northerly flow drops south behind the front. This frontal boundary should provide the focus for additional thunderstorm development through this afternoon. Temperatures are warm ahead of the front with lower to mid 90s across the Plains. Through Tonight...the upper level high is currently sitting over Utah while an upper level shortwave trough moves east across Wyoming into Nebraska. Energy trailing from the shortwave trough is currently sagging southward across Colorado and will provide the focus for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity for late this afternoon and tonight. Various high-res model solutions put the primary focus over the Palmer Divide, south into the Pueblo area through this evening. A couple of the model solutions actually keep showers and thunderstorms going through tonight into Monday morning. This will all depend on how quickly the upper shortwave moves off to the east. Expect easterly moist upslope flow to develop by morning behind the front, which may also keep rain going along the I-25 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat, especially over the Pikes Peak region, Colorado Springs urban areas and fresh burn scars of the Eastern Mountains. If one of these slow moving thunderstorms moves over a burn scar, flash flooding and debris flows will be possible. In addition, lightning and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible. Stronger storms over the Palmer Divide region will be capable of half inch hail through this evening. Temperatures will be mild overnight with mid 50s to lower 60s for lows. Monday...the upper level high is forecast to remain nearly stationary over Utah while the departing shortwave continues to influence southern Colorado. Flow at the surface will shift easterly to southeasterly by mid day, with abundant low level moisture continuing across the region. Late morning and afternoon instability will once again lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The focus looks to shift south along the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, which includes several recent burn scars. Flash flooding and debris flows will remain possible. There is also the possibility of stronger storms out across the Eastern Plains during the afternoon where nickle size hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the 80s across the region. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 Center of upper level high pressure remains near the 4 corners on Tue, with weak W-NW flow aloft across CO. Mid levels, especially over the central mountains, begin to dry out Tue afternoon, while low and mid level moisture lingers over srn and ern CO. Expect best coverage of convection Tue to be over the ern mountains and plains where moisture/instability is deepest/highest, and ern San Juans could see fairly high tsra chances as well. Wrn ridge begins to amplify slightly on Wed as short wave trough pushes into the upper Midwest. Precipitable water values continue to decrease across much of the region with mid level moist plume suppressed south, so expect a generally drier/hotter day most locations Wed, though residual moisture will likely fire some isolated/weak storms over the mountains in the afternoon. Slightly deeper moisture then spreads back across srn CO Thu/Fri as ridge begins to drift back east, with high pressure center somewhere near the TX Panhandle by late Fri evening. Should see a modest upturn in convection over the mountains both days, and a few storms will likely leak out onto the plains, especially if low level moisture increase portrayed by the GFS occurs. Convective details get a little fuzzy over the weekend with GFS/ECMWF slightly different in their depiction of the upper ridge position and location of short wave energy, though both would suggest at least a low grade monsoon tap will continue, with daily chances for tsra and temps at or slightly above seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1156 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 MVFR and patchy IFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS through 16z with scattered shra and tsra along with potential for fog with ample available mositure. Scattered tsra possible again tomorrow, with best chances of storms at the terminals being at ALS and PUB. Again, locally heavy rain with mvfr and brief ifr conditions assoicated with the rain. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for COZ072>075- 078>080-087. && UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1143 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 COZ058>089-093>099-161745- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1143 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Heavy rainfall will be possible across much of south central and southeast Colorado this afternoon through tonight. This heavy rainfall will be capable of producing localized flash flooding, particularly in and near the newer burn scars in the southeast mountains. Burn scars at greatest risk today include the Chateau, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring burn scars. Urban areas such as Colorado Springs will also be at risk for flash flooding as heavy rainfall may quickly overwhelm drainage systems. Thunderstorms will also carry the risk for dangerous cloud to ground lightning and erratic wind gusts up to 40 mph. Some hail up to the size of nickels will briefly be possible with isolated stronger storms in the Pikes Peak region through this evening. Thunderstorms may persist into the overnight hours across the southeast mountains and plains. Thus the threat for flash flooding on the new burn scars in the Sangre de Cristo and Wet mountains may continue past midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Increased coverage of afternoon into night-time showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across southern Colorado into Tuesday as deeper atmospheric moisture moves across the region during this time-frame. The primary threat from the stronger thunderstorms will be heavy rainfall, localized wind gusts around 50 mph, hail and hazardous cloud to ground lightning. The potential for flash flooding continues to be a concern, especially for the newer burn scars, including but not limited to the the Spring, Chateau, Junkins and Hayden Pass burn scars. Decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms is then anticipated from Wednesday into Thursday, thanks to drier air projected to move into southern Colorado. Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity should then be realized from Friday into next weekend, favoring higher terrain locations, as deeper atmospheric moisture returns with the primary meteorological threats from these storms once again being the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, hail, gusty winds and hazardous lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be possible this afternoon and tonight in and near burn scars across the southeast mountains and for urban areas in the Pikes Peak region. 88/88
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1055 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1050 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NW SAN ISABEL 38.08N 105.14W
07/15/2018 M1.27 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24
HOURS.
&&
MWThe Pueblo radar (KPUX), 126 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:42 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Huerfano County Emergency Manager gave a delayed report of flash flooding over an un-named road that is placed along the North Abeyta Creek. Daytime thunderstorms produced heavy rain north of Highway 160, in the Spring Burn Scar region.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 781914.