California, 2018High Wind in California, January 28, 2018
January 28, 2018 · NWS LOX · 3 events in 3 counties and zones
Strong surface high pressure over the Great Basin generated strong Santa Ana winds across the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. North to northeast winds, gusting up to 70 MPH, were reported.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Strong surface high pressure over the Great Basin generated strong Santa Ana winds across the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. North to northeast winds, gusting up to 70 MPH, were reported.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 27, 10:29 PM PST, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 27, 10:29 PM PST, 3 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1029 PM PST Sat Jan 27 2018
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and offshore flow will cause warming through
Monday. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected across much of Los
Angeles and Ventura counties today through Monday, peaking Sunday.
Record high temperatures are possible Sunday and Monday. A
cooling trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest and onshore flow returns. However,
temperatures will likely remain above normal through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SAT-TUE)
As expected, max temperatures took a decent jump today, mostly
into the 70s in coastal and valley areas. KLAX to KDAG gradients
were already nearly 7 mb offshore and will likely be a bit
stronger than the 7.8 indicated by the WRF at 12Z. Gusty north
to northeast winds were widespread in the mountains of Los Angeles
and Ventura Counties and have become more widespread in the
valleys as well. Later tonight and Sunday morning, winds are
expected to between 40 and 50 mph in coastal and valley areas,
and 50 to 55 mph in the mtns. The strongest winds will be below
and through the favored passes and canyons. Expect some high wind
warning levels gusts to 60 mph or greater in the mountains
overnight and Sunday morning, and may have to consider upgrading
Wind Advisories to High Wind Warnings in the mountains. Please
see the latest Non-Precipitation Weather Message (LAXNPWLOX) for
further details on the current wind advisories.
It will be a rather warm night where it remains breezy, with
temps staying in the 60s. On the other hand, with dry air in place
and clear skies, it will become quite chilly where the winds drop
off, and lows could get close to freezing in wind sheltered
portions of VTU County such as the Ojai Valley, and possibly
Portions of the Central Coast and Santa Ynez Valley.
***From Previous Discussion***
Upper level ridging over the e Pac will build into central and SW CA
tonight and Sun, and into srn CA for Sun night and Mon. The upper
level ridge should then weaken Mon night and Tue but remain over srn
CA during the period.
The offshore gradients are expected to become even stronger for Sun
night into Mon morning, with the NAM forecasting -8.3 mb LAX-DAG at
12Z Mon. The upper support will diminish some as H850 winds should
peak around 35-40kt. However, H950 winds are forecast to peak around
45-50 kt again over srn VTU County into the Santa Monica range. As a
result, the strong and gusty advisory-level NE winds are expected to
persist Sun night into Mon morning, with gusts up to 45-50 mph in
the mtns and around 40-45 mph for the coast and vlys with isolated
higher gusts.
The offshore gradients will weaken for Mon night and Tue, with
weaker sub-advisory offshore winds expected into Tue morning. Winds
should turn onshore at the beaches by early Tue afternoon.
Needless to say, the dry offshore flow will result in mostly clear
skies overall across the forecast area thru Mon, with a few high
clouds at times. It does appear that an increase in upper level
moisture will result in varying amounts if hi clouds over the
forecast area Mon night and Tue for partly cloudy skies in many
areas.
Even warmer boundary layer/H950/H850 temps and 1000-500 mb
thicknesses increasing to 564-567 dm on Sun and 565-568 dm on Mon
will help to bring near-record high temps to the area Sun and Mon.
Highs in the warmest vlys and inland coastal areas are forecast to
reach the mid to upper 80s both days, with a few spots possibly
reaching 90. Temps should cool several degrees on Tue but remain
significantly above normal for many areas. The warmest vlys and
inland coastal areas on Tue should reach the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)
The EC and GFS are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic scale
features during much of the extended period, altho by Sat the EC
does keep flat upper ridging over SoCal compared to some weak upper
troffiness with the GFS. Otherwise, some upper level ridging will
persist over srn CA to some degree Wed thru Fri. A blend of the
models will result in weak upper ridging lingering into Sat over the
region.
Fair skies with some hi clouds can be expected Wed thru Fri, then
increasing amounts of hi clouds should bring partly cloudy skies
to the area for Sat.
Weak offshore flow night and morning hours should prevail thru
Thu, then by Sat some increasing onshore flow can be expected.
Temps will change little Wed thru Fri while remaining several
degrees above normal in all areas. The warmest vlys and inland
coastal areas should top out in the mid 70s to around 80 each day.
For Sat, cooler temps are expected but still remain slightly
above normal for many areas. Highs on Sat in the warmest vlys and
inland coastal areas should be in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
28/0610Z
At 0537Z at KLAX...there was no marine layer nor a sfc based
inversion.
Very high confidence in CAVU TAFs. Areas of gusty north winds
will affect locations from southern Santa Barbara County southward
through Los Angeles County, with ocnl LLWS, turbulence, and
moderate UDDF through the period.
KLAX... High confidence CAVU TAF. There is a 20 percent chance of
LLWS and turbulence through 21Z and a twenty percent chance of
northerly cross winds greater than 15 knots through 15Z. No east
winds greater than eight knots are expected.
KBUR... High confidence CAVU TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of
LLWS and turbulence through 21Z.
&&
.MARINE...
27/800 PM
Outer Waters:
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions over the outer waters have
ended. through this evening. SCA level winds may next develop on
Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Inner Waters south of Point Conception:
SCA conditions due to offshore winds are likely by late this
evening or early Sunday morning. Areas between Ventura to Malibu
and between the Palos Verdes Peninsula and out across the San
Pedro Channel to Catalina Island will likely see the strongest
wind gusts. The offshore winds will continue through Monday
afternoon.
Avalon Harbor:
The gusty offshore winds may be capable of producing breaking
waves at the Avalon Harbor late tonight into Sunday and continuing
at times into Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER
27/100 PM
Overall, still on track for an extended duration of critical
fire weather conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties
as a moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event develops.
Tonight through Monday afternoon, peak gusts will range between
50 and 70 MPH across the mountains and between 35 and 50 MPH
across the valley areas. Additionally, relative humidity will
drop into the low teens and single digits with poor overnight
recovery. These conditions will be exacerbated by near-record
high temperatures Sunday and Monday. So, a RED FLAG WARNING
remains in effect for the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, the valleys of Ventura county as well as the Santa
Clarita and San Fernando Valleys from this evening through
Monday afternoon. For the coastal areas of Ventura and Los
Angeles counties, will continue with an elevated fire weather
risk as critical fire weather conditions are not expected
to reach duration criteria (although it will be very close).
For San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, offshore winds
will be weaker, but the very dry conditions and near-record
temperatures will develop. So, elevated fire weather conditions
can be expected through Monday afternoon.
Any new fire ignitions will have the potential for large fire
growth and rapid fire spread due to these stronger winds and
continued dry fuels.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST Monday for zones
40-41-44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones
244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Monday for
zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(TUE-SAT)
No significant hazards expected.
&&
PUBLIC...Sirard/DB
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Smith
FIRE...Thompson
SYNOPSIS...Sweet
weather.gov/losangelesHigh Wind, Los Angeles County Mountains Excluding the Santa Monica Range
- When
- January 28, 1:55 AM PST to 5:55 AM PST
- Where
- Los Angeles County Mountains Excluding the Santa Monica Range forecast zone
- Measured
- 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
Strong Santa Ana winds impacted the inland mountains of Los Angeles county. Some peak wind gusts from local RAWS include: Camp Nine (gusts to 70 MPH) and Mill Creek (gusts to 58 MPH).
High Wind, Ventura County Mountains
- When
- January 28, 1:55 AM PST to 5:55 AM PST
- Where
- Ventura County Mountains forecast zone
- Measured
- 61 kt (70 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
Strong Santa Ana winds impacted the mountains of Ventura county. Wind gusts up to 70 MPH were reported.
High Wind, Santa Monica Mountains Recreation Area
- When
- January 28, 4:56 AM PST to 6:56 AM PST
- Where
- Santa Monica Mountains Recreation Area forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
Strong Santa Ana winds impacted the Santa Monica Mountains in Los Angeles county. The RAWS sensor at Malibu Hills reported northerly winds, gusting to 60 MPH.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 737359, 737360, 737361.