Rounds of cold air continued surging toward Arkansas to begin February. On the 6th, readings were at or below freezing in northwest sections of the state, and subfreezing air spread slowly to the southeast.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Rounds of cold air continued surging toward Arkansas to begin February. On the 6th, readings were at or below freezing in northwest sections of the state, and subfreezing air spread slowly to the southeast. A storm system over the middle of the country provided moisture, and there was a potential for wintry precipitation. The incoming cold air was shallow, with warmer conditions (above freezing) overhead. Any snow or sleet would surely melt aloft, but would likely turn to ice (freezing rain) upon reaching the ground. During the nighttime hours of the 6th and early on the 7th, a Winter Weather Advisory was posted across northern Arkansas, with an Ice Storm Warning and up to a quarter inch of ice in the northeast. For the most part, moisture tended to build over the southern and eastern counties, and stayed out of the north. Any ice in the north was minor and spotty. In the northeast, while there was some ice on trees and power lines (leading to spotty power outages), temperatures did not go much below 32 degrees and roads were generally wet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 6, 5:27 PM CST, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 527 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below... && .AVIATION... Expect FZRA at the NRN terminals this evening into the early morning period...with some FZDZ possible after the rainfall moves east of that area. Further south...mainly rain and isolated TSRA are expected...with precip ending from NW to SE by around sunrise Wed. Conditions as low as LIFR are expected through the overnight period...with improving conditions expected for the daytime hrs Wed. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 320 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Obviously the primary concern is the impending winter weather in the form of freezing rain this afternoon through the overnight hours. A 1032mb surface high was anchored over the IA/WI/MN border region this afternoon, with a stationary boundary along the Gulf Coast, and an inverted surface trough extending from the Ozarks south through northeast Texas and all the way down to the Houston area where a weak surface low is currently analyzed. Meanwhile, over the UT and AZ border, a shortwave trough is moving southeastward. As this continues to shift east, the aforementioned surface low will strengthen along the stalled Gulf coast frontal boundary and begin to lift through northwest Louisiana and far southeast Arkansas. Strengthening pressure gradients across the state will keep north to northeasterly winds, and subsequently cold air advection, in place across the forecast area as precipitation spreads across the state, thus setting the stage for winter weather. Digging into the details here, regional surface observations show sub-freezing air still in place from the Fayetteville region eastward through Walnut Ridge in northeast Arkansas - that is essentially those counties bordering Missouri. Mid 30s are noted through areas a couple of rows of counties further south. However, significantly colder and drier air is positioned just north of the border, and this is expected to be drawn south as pressure gradients and resulting northerly winds strengthen. Aloft, isentropic ascent across the region will be substantial, and temperatures will be quite warm with warm nose temperatures exceeding +10C in many places. Given such profiles, snow is not a possibility. Cold pool depth, and warm nose temperatures, are also not supportive of much in the way of sleet, although a brief period cannot be ruled out the further north you go (i.e. further into the cold pool.) The forecast reflects these things, and features either rain or freezing rain only at this time. Furthermore, given that dewpoints are at or above the freezing mark in most places outside of the sub-freezing air in northern Arkansas, expect there will likely be a fairly stark cutoff between areas receiving freezing rain accumulations and those not. Where exactly that cutoff occurs is where a decent amount of uncertainty exists. What does all that mean for the forecast? Glad you asked. Have kept the areal extent of the Winter Weather Advisory put out by previous shifts, but did convert part of it to an Ice Storm Warning in portions of northeast Arkansas. Areas north of a line from Oark, to Greenbrier, to Searcy, and through Augusta, can generally expect at least a few hundredths of ice accumulation, with higher amounts the further north you go. Areas east of Melbourne, northeast of Mountain View, and north and east of Batesville, can expect a quarter of an inch of ice or more. Forecast reflects generally 0.25 to 0.30" of ice in those locations. Precipitation should be exiting the forecast area by daybreak or very shortly thereafter. And any ice accumulation is likely to be gone tomorrow as highs are expected to warm into the upper 30s even in the north. Long Term...Wednesday night through Tuesday High pressure will be building into the region in the wake of the storm system that brought the ice and rain to the area. The high will pass to the east of the area by Thursday morning as upper flow becomes quasi-zonal in nature. Winds will become more southerly as the high shifts east with temperatures warming accordingly. By the time Friday rolls around, readings will actually be above normal. Those southerly winds will bring moisture back to the area as early as Friday afternoon over the South. The next system will spread over the region Friday night and Saturday with rain the primary precip type. There is enough model uncertainty concerning this system that some winter weather can not be ruled out on the backside of this storm. For now have opted with the warmer solution and there is only a minimal chance of winter weather but system will need to be watched closely. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Baxter- Boone-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Johnson-Marion-Newton-Pope-Searcy- Van Buren-White-Woodruff. Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR Cleburne- Independence-Izard-Jackson-Sharp-Stone. && Aviation...62
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 336 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071100- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard- Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway- Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland- Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant- Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita- Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 336 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated strong storms are possible across the southern and southeast third of Arkansas late this afternoon through the overnight period...with hail being the primary hazard expected with the strongest storms. Measurable wintry precipitation...mainly freezing rain and some sleet...will develop over the northern half of Arkansas...starting late this Tuesday afternoon...then primarily through the evening and early morning hours on Wednesday. Amounts from a few hundreds to around one to two tenths are expected north of a line from Oark...to Greenbrier...to Searcy...and Augusta. Some potentially higher amounts will be seen...generally east of Melbourne...northeast of Mountain View...and north and east of Batesville...where amounts may exceed one quarter inch. Some hazardous weather conditions will be possible as a result. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday Another weather system will affect the state late in the week and over the weekend, and bring rain as well as some chance for more winter weather to Arkansas. Uncertainty also is present in the potential for winter weather over the weekend. Stay tuned for updated forecasts through the upcoming week. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
329 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2018
ARZ062-063-066>068-062215-
Bradley AR-Cleveland AR-Calhoun AR-Dallas AR-Ouachita AR-
329 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BRADLEY...WESTERN
CLEVELAND...CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN OUACHITA
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CST...
At 329 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cullendale, or 7 miles southeast of Camden, moving northeast at 50
mph.
Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Camden... Fordyce...
Hampton... Bearden...
Kingsland... Thornton...
Cullendale... Ellisville...
Harlow... Hebron...
Highland Industrial Park... Mt Elba...
Tipton... Marks Mill State Park...
East Camden... Tinsman...
Delhi... Frenchport...
Elliot... Locust Bayou...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3350 9289 3400 9229 3380 9208 3338 9272
3339 9276 3338 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 228DEG 43KT 3348 9276
62Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 528 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2018 ARZ056-057-063>065-069-070015- Drew AR-Cleveland AR-Lincoln AR-Desha AR-Arkansas AR-Jefferson AR- 528 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CLEVELAND... NORTHWESTERN DESHA...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN DREW... LINCOLN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST... At 527 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Herbine, or 7 miles southwest of Star City, moving northeast at 35 mph. Half inch hail will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Star City... Gould... Grady... Mitchellville... Nebo... Feenyville... Whitefield... Cane Creek State Park... Little Bayou Meto Park... Mills... Douglas... Garrett Bridge... Cornerville... Tyro... Rose Hill... Palmyra... Reedville... Crigler... Relfs Bluff... Pendleton... LAT...LON 3374 9197 3390 9207 3421 9148 3397 9133 TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 242DEG 32KT 3386 9194 Cross
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather, 2 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A quarter inch of ice was estimated to have accrued in Rushing.
Ice accumulated to around 1/4 inch, mostly on elevated surfaces.
Light ice accumulations were noted on trees. Roads were mostly clear, with a few localized patches of ice.
NWS Weather Office at North Little Rock reported 0.10 inch of ice. Pulaski county was added to the Advisory at 9 pm.
Light ice accumulations were reported at Swifton.
Roads were mostly clear, but overpasses were slick in spots.
Light ice accumulations occurred on elevated surfaces.
Light ice accumulations were occurring mainly on trees.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 740212, 740220, 740221, 740222, 740223, 740224, 740225, 740229.