Heavy rain brought flooding to Arkansas late in February 2018.
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The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to Arkansas late in February 2018.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 25, 11:20 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 .UPDATE... Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Widely scattered MVFR ceilings/visibilities will affect central and southeast sections through 14z. A ENE near surface flow of 3-6kts will prevail through the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 531 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018) AVIATION... MVFR cigs are expected to affect extreme southeast portions of the forecast area through 03z. Widely scattered MVFR conditions due to fog are expected across mainly northwest sections between 09z and 14z. 55 PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 303 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday A mix of sun and clouds were noted acrs AR this aftn, with the bulk of the sunshine seen acrs NW AR. Patchy -RA was confined to the far SE part of the state, as an upper lvl impulse tracks along the frontal bndry that moved thru the FA on Sat. Mid aftn temps were mainly in the 50s. The impulse tracking over SE AR wl shift E of the region later tngt. Kept PoPs confined to the SE part of the FA, with assocd rainfall moving out of the region before daybreak on Mon. Sfc high pres wl again strengthen ovr AR, pushing the front further to the S of AR. Abundant sunshine wl return for Mon, with high temps topping out in the 60s at most locations. The respite fm the wet weather wl be brief though. Heading into Tue, the aforementioned high pres system wl have shifted E of AR. Clouds wl again be in the increase as the old front starts to lift N as a warm front. Rain chances are back in the fcst Tue aftn, acrs the SW half of the FA, as WAA pattern/lift ramps up. Highs on Tue wl be a bit cooler due to clouds/rain. Unsettled conds wl cont into the middle of the week. LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday The long term period begins with the CWA in WSW upper flow on the northwest periphery of a Gulf of Mexico high and a deep upper low cascading down the CONUS West Coast. The subtropical and polar jets become superimposed Wednesday in the southwest to central CONUS. As the deep low ejects into the plains, surface cyclogenesis will occur in the west-central plains, quickly ejecting to the northeast. By Saturday morning, an extended period of moisture transport is already occurring. Models are in agreement with an atmospheric river originating from the Baja region coupled with lowest level flow from the gulf of Mexico resulting in a plume of 400 to 1000 kg/m/s of integrated water vapor transport (IVT). At the surface, a warm front boundary will slowly be lifting northward across TX/LA/MS to near Arkansas. Much of the state will likely be in drizzle or fog from isentropic lift above the colder surface stable layer. Have kept fog out of the grids for now since details will depend on meso- microscale conditions once overall certainty increases. Otherwise, light rain will be likely at first which is represented in the forecast initially. Model spread increases Wednesday with the depth of the approaching trough, but most are in fairly good agreement with the overall pattern. The exact depth and placement of the warm front boundary is still too far out to determine unfortunately since the system in question is still located in quick moving flow of northwest north america. The upper levels will be sampled much better overnight and tomorrow morning, thus forecast confidence should greatly improve after this forecast. That said, most models are in agreement with the warm front axis getting somewhere into Arkansas. The warm front will likely be the main focus for convection in Arkansas. PWATS are expected to range from 1.0 to 1.5 inches over the event... which is anywhere from the 90th percentile for late February to record-breaking. Instability will be marginal (but more in the case the warm front lifts farther north than I expect), but should be more than sufficient with plenty of upper level lift. Rainfall should increase throughout the day Wednesday as the warm front slowly lifts northward. Later Wednesday into Wednesday night, the cold front will push through the state. There is currently high uncertainty regarding the strength of the placement/strength/severeness of this convection. A slight shift south in everything will mean no severe weather for Arkansas, while a slight shift northward may result in a large part of the state with the potential for strong storms. These details will be worked out likely in the next forecast as forecast confidence is likely to increase significantly in the next package for aforementioned reasons. Regardless, an axis occurring somewhere near or south of the east-of-Little Rock I40 corridor will likely receive several inches of rain which will only aggravate any ongoing flood issues from this previous event. After the cold front moves through, temperatures will return to below seasonal. It does appear that we'll have a few days of dry conditions afterward-- good news for those who need it! At this point, the models diverge such that forecast confidence is generally low at this point. Upper flow takes on split flow while subsidence behind the cold front should result in clear skies for a bit. Low level return flow begins on Sunday as high pressure slides eastward. Rain chances will likely return Sunday or Monday but details are unclear at this point. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...67
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 219 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261100- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard- Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway- Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland- Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant- Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita- Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 219 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday After dry weather on Monday and much of Tuesday, chances for rain will go up by the middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous by Tuesday night and Wednesday, especially over central and southern Arkansas. In this part of the state, one to more than three inches of rain could occur. There will also be the possibility of severe weather. Given a saturated ground and ongoing river flooding, any appreciable rain will aggravate an already serious high water situation. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed through Tuesday, but may be necessary on Wednesday given the possibility of severe weather. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 67/46/44
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE OIL TROUGH 35.61N 91.41W
02/24/2018 M63 MPH INDEPENDENCE AR TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER LZK1800099
55The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Saline River.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Petit Jean River.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 742305, 742307.