Canadian high pressure was setting up over the Ohio Valley, and was bringing subfreezing temperatures and dry conditions to northern sections of the state. A storm system was approaching from the southwest, with moisture thrown into the cold and dry air.
Every event with a place to put it; 22 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Canadian high pressure was setting up over the Ohio Valley, and was bringing subfreezing temperatures and dry conditions to northern sections of the state. A storm system was approaching from the southwest, with moisture thrown into the cold and dry air. Rain began across the southern counties on the 7th, but it was uncertain what would fall from the sky farther north on the 8th/9th as moisture slowly increased toward the Missouri border.
The forecast was not a slam dunk because of three huge factors. First, a dry atmosphere over the northern counties was eroding moisture arriving from the south. Given this, it was difficult to know how much moisture would be available to produce snow and ice. Predicting accumulations accurately was a challenge. Second, forecast models showed a layer of above freezing air aloft. This was verified by several balloon launches on the 8th. At 600 am CST, it was 42 degrees at 4900 feet over North Little Rock (Pulaski County). At 1200 pm CST, it was still 40 degrees overhead, and 36 degrees at 300 pm CST. As long as this was happening, snow was going to melt before reaching the ground. Not knowing when this warm layer would disappear affected the snow forecast. Finally, with melting occurring, it was important to know if temperatures would stay below freezing near the ground, or warm up a little. If it was the former, then freezing rain would be a huge issue. Any warming would limit how much icing took place.
In the end, the warm layer went away late on the 8th/early on the 9th in parts of the north. This allowed snow to fall for a few hours in places. At Mountain View (Stone County), three inches of powder was measured, with two to three inches at Dennard (Van Buren County), and two inches at Botkinburg (Van Buren County), Calico Rock (Izard County), Leslie (Searcy County), Marshall (Searcy County), and Wayton (Newton County).
The warm layer stuck around for most of the event in the northeast, and ground temperatures hovered around 32 degrees. This turned into an ice storm for several counties. At least three quarters of an inch of ice accrued on exposed objects near Velvet Ridge (White County), with half to three quarters of an inch at Alicia (Lawrence County), Augusta (Woodruff County), Batesville (Independence County), Steprock (White County), and Swifton (Jackson County). Because of the ice, at least 40,000 power outages were reported, with trees and tree limbs downed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 7, 3:12 PM CST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 312 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 .SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday To say this forecast has been a challenge would be an understatement. Models continue to have run-to-run variability, especially with respect to exact amounts and placement. However, it does appear that they are clustering in on placement somewhat, particularly focused on north central Arkansas. Parameters continue to come together for a period of wintry weather, which will primarily affect northern and central Arkansas. Latest surface analysis places low pressure over the lower Texas coast. Upper level low over southern California and attendant trough extending toward Baja California will dig into west Texas and northern Mexico over the next 12-24 hours, which will allow the surface low to move along the Gulf coast, and this will tap right into the available low level moisture. Adding to that will be southwest flow aloft which will tap into Pacific moisture. This will allow precipitation to develop and overspread the state tonight into Saturday. The low will pass to the south of Arkansas during the day Saturday, with surface flow turning to northeast, and the upper low passing over southern Arkansas behind the surface system. Moisture will decrease on Sunday, as an upper low pushes down from the high plains, and cold high pressure moves in at the surface behind the system. Precipitation Type... The issue of precipitation type continues to be messy at best (and at worst, I suppose). Right now, it appears that precipitation in the central and south will start out as rain, with a sleet/freezing rain mix in the north. As the cold column deepens, it will transition to sleet/snow, then all snow by mid to late morning. Precipitation will start to mix further south from west central into central Arkansas during the afternoon, and become more of a sleet/snow mix by mid to late evening. Further southeast of that (toward southeast Arkansas) precip will probably mix out from the evening into the overnight hours. This will all depend on how quickly the deeper cold air gets into the region. As is often the case with shallow Arctic airmasses, the Ozarks can act as an obstacle to cold air moving into Arkansas. In these situations, you have to watch out for the subfreezing air flowing into the region from the northeast around them. If the subfreezing air comes in more quickly from the northeast, the transition will be faster. Precipitation will come to an end early Sunday, as the aforementioned dry air moves in behind the upper low. Amounts... For now, it appears that the highest snowfall amounts will be over the higher terrain of the Ozarks in northern Arkansas, where two to four inch amounts appear likely. Localized amounts exceeding six inches are not out of the question. Further south, amounts up to an inch are possible, primarily over the Ouachitas and into central Arkansas. As there will be a period of freezing rain before things transition, ice accumulations will be possible from western into northeast Arkansas. The highest accruals will approach one tenth of an inch, again, primarily in the Ozarks. For the metro area, while there could be some freezing rain accumulating, amounts look to be under one tenth of an inch, with an inch or less of snow/sleet accumulation. Based on projected totals, we have gone with a Winter Storm Warning for much of our northern Arkansas counties late tonight through early Sunday. Disclaimer... This forecast is based largely on the 12Z suite of model data. Based on a preliminary look at the 18Z data, my confidence, or lack thereof, has changed very little. We will continue to monitor and adjust as necessary. Now, for your enjoyment, the long term discussion, and for my enjoyment, some headache medication... && .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday Extended period does not have nearly the high gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands potential as what is being seen in the short term period at this time. That being said, there is a system coming in mid week that will bring another chance of precipitation to the forecast area with a blend of forecast solutions preferred at this time. Period initiates with an amplified pattern in place characterized by upper ridging over the intermountain west and subsequent downstream troughing over the east and an overall split flow pattern. Models consistent in dropping down some northern stream energy into the region early in the week but overall airmass will be dry enough to preclude any mention of precipitation at this time. That being said, aforementioned ridge will pass by mid week for at least some warming temperatures although we may still fall a touch below seasonable norms. Models are all consistent in dropping a northern stream short wave into the nations midsection mid week and generating what could be a fairly significant storm system. Models are not in the best agreement with this system but all indications continue to point to the precipitation type being primarily rain. There is still some chance of a little wintry weather across the north but small enough at this time not to even mention...yet. Cooler air returns on the back side of the departing system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 32 33 27 41 / 70 80 80 10 Camden AR 42 42 33 43 / 100 100 80 10 Harrison AR 29 32 24 40 / 30 60 60 0 Hot Springs AR 39 39 31 43 / 100 100 80 10 Little Rock AR 37 37 31 41 / 100 100 90 10 Monticello AR 42 43 33 39 / 100 100 90 20 Mount Ida AR 37 38 30 43 / 90 90 80 10 Mountain Home AR 30 35 24 40 / 30 50 50 0 Newport AR 34 34 28 40 / 70 80 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 40 41 32 40 / 100 100 90 20 Russellville AR 37 37 30 43 / 80 90 80 10 Searcy AR 35 36 29 39 / 80 90 80 10 Stuttgart AR 38 38 31 39 / 100 100 90 20 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday FOR Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Johnson- Lawrence-Marion-Newton-Pope-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday FOR Fulton-Randolph. && Short Term...57 / Long Term...56
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 109 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081915- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 109 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight Light rain will be confined to far south Arkansas this afternoon with period of drizzle possible elsewhere. A large shield of rain is expected to develop tonight and spread to the north with time. Sub freezing or very close to near freezing temperatures will be noted in the north when precipitation arrives, with spotty light freezing rain and some light snow possible after midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Moisture will continue trying to build into the northern counties Saturday and Saturday night. There will be a lot of dry air to overcome, so moisture levels should remain somewhat limited. Even so, it will be cold enough to yield areas of light freezing rain, sleet, and light snow over the northern two to three rows of counties. As far as accumulations, two to as much as four inches of snow and sleet could pile up across the north. A tenth to a quarter of an inch of ice could occur in places. Colder air will work from northern into central Arkansas after dark Saturday, with rain changing to light snow. Any accumulations should be an inch or less. In the south, two to more than three inches of rain is expected through early Sunday. Because this is spread out over time, any flash flooding should be spotty. This is a complex situation, and the forecast could change. Please continue to monitor forecast information from the National Weather Service, and plan accordingly. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
20 winter weather, 10 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Law Enforcement reported 0.75 inches of freezing rain at Velvet Ridge.
The observer reported a trace of snow in Pine Bluff.
The Sheriff reported 0.1 inch of snow and 0.01 inch of freezing rain at Stuttgart.
The public reported 0.5 inches of freezing rain 15 miles east of Augusta.
CoCoRaHS observer reported 1.8 inches of snow at Hardy. A COOP observer reported 0.2 inches of sleet fell. Also, 0.1 inches of freezing rain was also reported at Hardy.
Freezing rain accumulated 0.25 inches in Clinton and was reported by the law enforcement. Also, 2.5 inches of snow was reported on social media.
Freezing rain accumulated 0.25 inches in Heber Springs and was reported by the law enforcement. Also, 1.0 inch of snow was reported on social media.
The observer reported freezing rain accumulated 0.5 inches in Batesville. Also, 1.0 inch of snow was reported by the COOP observer at Batesville Lock and Dam.
The observer reported freezing rain accumulated 0.5 inches in Swifton. Also, 0.5 inch of snow was reported by the COOP observer at Newport.
The observer reported freezing rain accumulated 0.25 inch in Witts Spring. Also, 2.0 inches of snow was reported by the Leslie CocoRaHS observer.
The observer reported freezing rain accumulated 0.5 inch in Alicia. Also, 0.3 inch of snow was reported by the COOP observer in Black Rock.
The observer reported 0.2 inch of snow 8 SSW of Pocohontas and 0.01 inch of freezing rain was reported by the Pocohontas COOP observer.
The public reported 0.1 inch of snow in Hector.
A trace of snow was measured by the observer in Subiaco.
A trace of snow was measured by the observer in Danville.
The observer in Ozone measured 1.1 inches of snow and a trace of freezing rain was reported by the emergency manager. The EM mentioned trees and elevated surfaces were starting to ice over in northern Johnson County near the Patterson Springs area.
The observer reported 0.5 inch of snow in Harrison.
The observer reported 0.1 inch of snow in Yellville.
Law enforcement reported freezing rain accumulated 0.25 inches in Jsper. Also, 2.0 inches of snow was reported by the law enforcement at Wayton.
The National Weather Service in North Little Rock reported 0.1 inch of freezing rain and a trace of snow at the North Little Rock airport.
The observer at Alum Fork reported a trace of snow.
The public reported 0.1 inch of freezing rain in Coy.
The observer reported 1.0 inch of snow 2 miles east of Norfork.
The observer reported 2.0 inches of snow at Calico Rock. Law enforcement also reported a trace of freezing rain at Melbourne.
The observer reported freezing rain accumulated 0.1 inch in Mtn. View. Also, 3.0 inches of snow was reported by the law enforcement in Mtn. View.
The observer reported a trace of snow at Salem.
The observer reported 0.1 inch of snow 5 miles south of Houston.
The public reported 0.3 inches of snow had fallen.
The public reported 0.3 inch of freezing rain in Biscoe.
The public reported a trace of snow in Conway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 798536, 798525, 798527, 798538, 795233, 798730, 798731, 798733, 798736, 798738, 798753, 799015, 798544, 798540, 798541, 798543, 798758, 798760, 798737, 798528, 798529, 798530, 798761, 798764, 798745, 798768, 798532, 798522, 798531, 798535.