Arizona, 2018Drought in Arizona, September 1 to 30, 2018
September 1 to 30, 2018 · NWS TWC · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in southeast Arizona in January and peaked in areal coverage from late May through early July, continued through September in northern sections of Graham County and a small portion of northwest Greenlee County.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in southeast Arizona in January and peaked in areal coverage from late May through early July, continued through September in northern sections of Graham County and a small portion of northwest Greenlee County.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
955 PM MST Fri Aug 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
especially from Tucson eastward through Labor Day. Daytime
temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal. A gradual
drying trend will then occur later next week, with the bulk of
thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery depicted clear skies to mostly
clear skies south to west of Tucson. Scattered to broken mid-level
clouds were noted elsewhere. KEMX WSR-88D depicted isolated 35-45
dBZ echoes (likely producing sprinkles) had developed during the
past 30 minutes from the Catalina Mountains northwestward into
southeast Pinal County.
Based on satellite and radar trends as well as 01/00Z NAM12, only
isolated showers and a few thunderstorms may occur the rest of
tonight mainly north to east of Tucson. The 01/00Z GFS is
considerably more robust with precip potential versus the NAM12, and
what satellite/radar trends suggest. At any rate, the official
forecast continues with isolated showers/tstms the rest of tonight
mostly from Tucson eastward, and precip-free conditions further west
across western Pima County.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA KTUS vicinity eastward the rest of tonight.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA KTUS vicinity eastward Saturday into Saturday
evening. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may also occur west of KTUS.
Otherwise, clear skies west of KTUS the rest of tonight, and SCT-BKN
clouds 8k-12k ft AGL elsewhere. FEW-BKN clouds 8k-12k ft AGL
Saturday into Saturday evening. Surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts, though brief gusts near TSRA. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms east of Tucson with lesser
coverage and precipitation chances west of Tucson through Labor Day.
A gradual drying trend will evolve to isolated thunderstorms mostly
east of Tucson by the middle of the upcoming week. Expect terrain
driven 20-foot winds at less than 15 mph, except brief strong gusts
near thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /209 PM MST/...Clear skies this morning led to
quick warm up around the region, priming the atmosphere for
convective initiation off the Chiricahua Mountains this early this
afternoon. This is in line with earlier HRRR and U of A WRF
solutions.
Looking at satellite imagery, an upper level trough can be seen
digging into northern California, with an upper level jetlit
swinging around the southern edge moving into western Arizona. This
will be the main driver for convective activity through this
weekend, as the trough flattens and moves eastward into the Great
Basin.
This will enhance the southwesterly flow at the lower levels,
provide moisture and be the focal point for precipitation Saturday
and Sunday. Based on the moisture profiles aloft, the activity
should be confined to the southeastern portion of the state.
By Tuesday, the precipitation chances dwindle and daytime high
temperatures will be in the mid 90s across the lower elevations.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
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Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys
- When
- September 1, 12:00 AM MST to September 30, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued throughout September across far northern Graham County and a small portion of northwest Greenlee County including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands. Rainfall amounts ranged from 0.5 to 2 inches, which were 50 to 90 percent of normal for the month. While soil moisture levels increased, they remained below the 30th percentile. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir rose by 5000 acre feet, but remained at less than 1 percent of capacity throughout September.
Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties
- When
- September 1, 12:00 AM MST to September 30, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued throughout September across far northern Graham County and a small portion of northwest Greenlee County including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands. Rainfall amounts ranged from 0.5 to 2 inches, which were 50 to 90 percent of normal for the month. While soil moisture levels increased, they remained below the 30th percentile. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir rose by 5000 acre feet, but remained at less than 1 percent of capacity throughout September.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Heat in Arizona, September 1 to 6, 20188 deaths · 8 events
- Lightning Strike in Florida, September 1, 20181 death · 1 event
- Rip Current in Alabama, September 1, 20181 death · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Iowa, September 1 to 3, 2018$1.6 million · 23 events
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Iowa, September 1 to 2, 2018$702,000 · 2 in hail · 38 events
- Wildfire in Colorado, September 1 to 30, 2018$3.5 million · 1 event
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 1 to 2, 2018$1.8 million · 2.5 in hail · 8 events
- Tornadoes and Damaging Wind in Michigan, September 1, 2018$605,000 · EF0 · 5 events
- Flooding in Wisconsin, September 1 to 30, 2018$154,000 · 17 events
- Flash Flooding and Flood in Nebraska, September 1 to 3, 2018$140,000 · 60 kt wind · 17 events
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Iowa, September 1, 2018$30,000 · 1 in hail · 36 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Virginia, September 1 to 2, 2018$41,000 · 70 kt wind · 16 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 784202, 784203.