Funnel Cloud in Arizona, May 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 AM MST Wed May 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold low pressure system will continue to bring
rain and snow showers to the region through Thursday with some
areas of accumulating snow in the mountains above 6,000 feet. A
few thunderstorms are also possible, especially this afternoon. Much
warmer and drier weather will develop Friday and last through the
weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure trough that has brought welcome
rain and snow to the area overnight is centered over the lower
Colorado River valley this morning and slowly moving east. Shower
coverage and intensity has generally decreased over the past few
hours with mainly scattered showers observed early this morning.
Snowfall accumulation has been hit or miss. Webcams along I-40 on
the Ash Fork hill west of Williams show definite accumulation
there to around 6,000 feet. Another webcam in the Forest Lakes
area indicates some light accumulation there as well. Scattered
shower activity will continue through the morning, and there is
potential for up to an additional inch of snow above 6,000 to
6,500 feet but it will be confined to the areas that see the
heavier showers. Winter Weather Advisories continue until 11 am
MST. Convective showers are expected to increase this afternoon,
but daytime temperatures should limit any accumulation to only the
highest mountain peaks. Afternoon temperatures today will be
quite cold for early May, topping out nearly 20 degrees below
average.

Showers will gradually decrease tonight as the low pressure
centers weakens and moves northeast through the Four Corners. A
trailing wave rotating through the area on Thursday will keep
scattered afternoon showers lingering over the mountains before
clearing out.

High pressure quickly rebuilds over the region Friday, allowing
temperatures to quickly rebound to above average. Warmer and
drier weather will persist over the weekend and through at least
the first half of next week. There is potential for breezy winds
to return from Sunday onward as shortwave energy passes by to our
north.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect wdsprd -shra/-shsn and
isold -tsra/-tssn through 01Z-02Z Thursday. Snow levels 6000-6500
feet msl. Most showers producing MVFR/IFR conditions with isold
LIFR. Gradual improvement aft 02Z with cigs becmg VFR overnight.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An upper low will move across the district today
bringing rain and snow showers, as well as isolated thunderstorms.
Winds will become light over the western and central zones, with
southwest winds 10-20 mph across the eastern zones. Showers will
diminish tonight, with high relative humidity recovery and light
winds. Warmer conditions develop Thursday, with light west through
north winds and only a slight chance of afternoon showers.

Friday through Sunday...Expect very warm and dry conditions through
this period, with generally light winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until
11 AM MST this morning FOR AZZ015>017.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     SNOW             3 N MCNARY              34.11N 109.86W
05/02/2018  M1.5 INCH        NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.24 INCHES.

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
851 AM MST WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     SNOW             GRAND CANYON VILLAGE    36.05N 112.14W
05/02/2018  M6.0 INCH        COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            ON MOHAVE STREET IN GRAND CANYON VILLIAGE.

&&

JS/VA