Arizona, 2018

Strong Wind in Arizona, May 1, 2018

May 1, 2018 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

S. created strong southwest gradient winds over southeast Arizona.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$1,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

An upper level trough over the western U.S. created strong southwest gradient winds over southeast Arizona. Strong winds damaged one structure in Sierra Vista.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 4:00 PM MST, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 1, 4:00 PM MST, 1 hour before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
400 PM MST Tue May 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving north of the area will
bring isolated to scattered showers tonight. Isolated to scattered
showers Wednesday will be mainly confined to the White Mountains.
Expect quite cool temperatures Wednesday night, then building high
pressure will bring much warmer temperatures Friday into this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Deep upper trough over the western CONUS was
contributing to cloudy skies and gusty south to southwest winds
across southeast Arizona this afternoon. Expect isolated showers
producing light rain to develop early this evening mainly west to
northwest of Tucson. Isolated to scattered showers should move
eastward across central/eastern portions of this forecast area later
tonight. Snow levels are forecast to fall to 7000-7500 feet by
daybreak Wednesday.

Several HRRR solutions as well as the 01/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and
WRF-GFS suggest the best period for measurable rainfall to occur
within the Tucson metro area will be generally from 8 PM MST to
around midnight. Rainfall amounts at lower elevations should mostly
be less than one tenth of an inch. Liquid amounts in the mountains
and particularly from the Catalina/Rincon Mountains to the White
Mountains expected to range from about 0.10" - 0.50", with the
highest amounts favoring the White Mountains. Snow accumulations
above 7000 feet may briefly approach 5-6 inches White Mountains; 3
inches Mount Graham, and 1-2 inches Catalina Mountains. Isolated to
scattered showers northeast of Tucson and especially White Mountains
Wednesday forecast to end around sunset Wednesday evening.

Thereafter, strengthening upper ridge over the western CONUS will
translate into dry conditions Thursday into early next week. After
cooler temperatures Wednesday, a warming trend will begin Thursday
before much warmer temperatures prevail Friday into early next week.
The first official 100 degree temperature for the Tucson metro area
appears increasingly likely on Sunday, then well above normal temps
to continue Monday and Tuesday.

Gusty winds continuing into Wednesday then markedly less wind
Wednesday night. The combination of clearing skies or clear skies,
and light winds will produce ideal radiational cooling conditions
late Wednesday night. A few locales in the Sulphur Springs Valley
may very briefly encroach upon freezing temperatures late Wednesday
night, but widespread freezing temperatures are not expected to
occur.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
Isolated -SHRA mainly west to northwest of KTUS early this evening,
then isolated to scattered -SHRA KTUS vicinity eastward to New
Mexico after about 02/03Z and continuing the rest of tonight. The
best timing for -SHRA KTUS vicinity appears to be from 03Z-07Z
Wednesday. Any -SHRA around daybreak Wednesday and continuing into
Wednesday afternoon should occur northeast of KTUS.

Otherwise, cloud decks becoming 4k-8k ft AGL this evening and
continuing into Wednesday morning. Cloud decks 6k-10k ft AGL
Wednesday afternoon then decreasing clouds Wednesday evening.
Surface wind this evening and Wednesday afternoon swly/wly 10-25 kts
with gusts near 35-40 kts. Surface wind late tonight and Wednesday
morning sely to swly 5-15 kts with gusts near 25 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7 PM MST this
evening for southern portions of Fire Weather Zones 151 and 152. The
combination of gusty south to west winds, low relative humidity and
a high to very high fire danger will create critical fire conditions.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Wednesday afternoon for much of
Cochise County. The combination of gusty southwest to west winds,
low relative humidity and a high to very high fire danger may create
critical fire conditions.

Lighter winds Thursday into this weekend will mitigate critical
fire conditions. However, afternoon gusts will occur due to strong
daytime heating. Below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
will be followed with a strong warming trend Friday into this
weekend. The warmest temperatures so far this year will be likely on
Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ151-152.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ503-507-508.

Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon for AZZ151-152.

&&

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Strong Wind, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When
May 1, 5:00 PM MST to 10:00 PM MST
Where
Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Measured
43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$1,000
Reported by
Newspaper
Coordinates
32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Minor wind damage occurred at the site of a commercial building that was under construction in Sierra Vista. Several of the metal studs were bent and dislodged from the slab.

What these are

Strong Wind
Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, May 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 745491.