Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 1, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
347 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

The moisture is in the air with dewpoints in the lower 60s across
the eastern two thirds of Kansas. A distinct dryline can be
noticed on satellite imagery with cumulus starting to develop
along this line from Stockton to Sublette.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

Highlight: These next few days are the beginning of the severe weather
season for the Plains. Take precautions. Monitor the forecast for
updates. Be ready to take shelter.

Evening/Tonight - The concern for this period has increased with the
set-up of the triple point in central Kansas. Right now the focus
of concern is still across central Kansas specifically in the
north central region into eastern Nebraska; however, it is
possible that more of south central Kansas could be impacted.
Supercells are expected this afternoon with coverage allowing for
discrete cells to quickly become upscale and potentially be long
lasting given the moisture rich environment off to the east and
influx of jet support. These storms are going to be off to the
races with speeds of 40 mph. It is possible that there could be
hail as large as baseballs, a significant tornado and 70 mph
winds. Hodographs for the late afternoon into the evening for the
mentioned area support the higher concern for tornadic potential.
SPC has upgraded this area to a moderate risk for the evening, and
a Tornado Watch has been issued. If you live in the watch area, be
ready to heed any issued warnings. Models are currently
indicating a brief window in time for storms across the county
warning area with an exit by 10 PM.

Wednesday - A similar set-up is in store for Wednesday, but a greater
storm coverage is expected. This could cause interference among
the storms which would then diminish the magnification of the
hazards compared to today given the more discrete nature. All
severe hazards (very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes) are
arguably still in play. The tornado threat may lower though.
However, this does not mean that one will not occur. It appears
that south central Kansas could be the highlight area for tornadic
potential if activity develops further apart initially. The game
will be when the cap will break which is still expected in the mid
to late afternoon time frame. Depending on where the dryline sets
up, the entire county warning area could have potential for
severe weather. While initially the threat would be large hail, a
transition to a damaging wind threat may occur depending on the
evolution of the convective mode. This activity may stick around
into the overnight.

Thursday - Another day of potential severe weather with the shift
being further to the east. The area would be east of I-135.
Depending on the evolution of storms on Wednesday, southeast
Kansas would still have a decent shot for storms. The main threats
could be large hail and damaging winds. There are certainly many
balls still in the air for this scenario because of the convection
from the previous two days.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

This trough surely does not want to move out as it lags across the
eastern portions of the Plains into Saturday. A ridge will follow
in behind this trough leaving a nice Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures in the 80s with relatively little wind by KS
standards are going to make a fantastic start to the first weekend
of May. Outdoor activities should be part of the weekend
festivities. There is another wave still poking its head for the
end of the weekend to the start of next week. Chances of
precipitation have been modified to latter in the period or the
late Monday night into Tuesday timeframe. There is still time and
adjustments likely in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

Gusty southerly winds will persist across much of the area with
increasing chances for storms late this afternoon and evening across
much of central KS on the eastern periphery of the sfc trough
axis/dryline. Some of the storms will become severe with large
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Storms may impact the
KSLN, KRSL and KGBD terminals in the 22Z-03Z window but confidence
lowers as you move further south and east. As winds decouple a
bit later tonight, a strong SSW LLJ will result in LLWS across
much of the area late tonight into the early morning hours on Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  83  66  84 /  20  50  30  30
Hutchinson      69  82  64  82 /  20  60  20  20
Newton          69  82  65  82 /  20  50  30  30
ElDorado        69  82  66  83 /  10  40  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  82  67  84 /  10  40  30  40
Russell         60  79  56  80 /  50  30  20  10
Great Bend      63  80  57  80 /  30  40  20  10
Salina          69  82  62  82 /  40  60  30  30
McPherson       69  82  63  81 /  30  60  30  20
Coffeyville     69  81  69  79 /  10  20  50  60
Chanute         68  81  68  80 /  10  20  40  60
Iola            68  81  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
Parsons-KPPF    68  80  69  79 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
420 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-022130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
420 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Supercell storms with hail up to the size of baseballs and a few
strong tornadoes are expected into early evening across parts of
central and south central Kansas. Storms are expected along and west
of a line from Salina to Hutchinson to Kingman.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Severe thunderstorms should be more numerous on Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday evening. The main threats will be golf ball sized
hail, 60 to 70 mph winds and a tornado.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible Thursday
afternoon for locations roughly east of the turnpike. This activity
will depend on the evolution of Wednesday's storms. The most likely
threat would be hail and damaging winds.

A few storms are possible Monday in central Kansas. These are not
expected to be severe at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening along and west of a
line from Salina to Hutchinson to Kingman.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/