Damaging Wind in Arizona, June 8, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Fri Jun 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms southeast of Tucson ending this
evening. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms east of Tucson
Saturday afternoon and evening followed by dry conditions Sunday
into Monday. Thunderstorm chances will increase especially late next
week. Temperatures will remain above normal into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across
west central/southwest Cochise County at this time. Given the very
dry surface-700 mb layer as per the 08/12Z KTWC sounding, rainfall
amounts should be quite light. Various 08/12Z models suggest that
showers/tstms will end this evening, although a potentially fairly
thick mid and high-level cloud shield may continue across eastern
sections later tonight. Clear skies should occur west to northwest
of Tucson tonight.

Strong high pressure aloft will remain centered over southern New
Mexico Saturday as a trough of low pressure moves eastward in the
Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. Enough mid-level moisture in
southwesterly flow aloft justifies a slight chance of showers/tstms
east of Tucson Saturday afternoon and evening.

The aforementioned upper trough will then move eastward into the
northern Rockies Sunday, and the upper high is progged to move
southward into eastern Sonora Mexico. Somewhat stronger wly flow
aloft will shunt deeper moisture east of this forecast area. Thus,
have opted for dry conditions area-wide Sunday and have maintained
this scenario into Monday.

Thereafter, the deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their respective
ensembles were similar with moving the upper high center
northeastward into the southern Rockies Tuesday. The focus of
attention starting around the middle of next week will turn toward
the next eastern Pacific tropical system (likely will be named
"Bud") that is progged to move toward southern Baja California. Dry
conditions appear to continue across much of southeast Arizona
Tuesday, then a slight chance of showers/tstms mainly east to south
of Tucson Tuesday night.

The coverage of showers/tstms should gradually increase across the
area Wednesday into next Friday. Increased moisture due to
persistent sly/sely mid-level flow and the potential for a Gulf of
California surge due to "Bud" should contribute to better
thunderstorm chances. Curious to have noted that the GFS remains
fairly bullish with showers/tstm chances, while the ECMWF remains
somewhat to considerably lower regarding precip chance. However,
both models have been fairly similar/consistent with the favorable
sly/sely mid-level flow regime.

At any rate, above normal daytime temps are likely to continue into
the middle of next week. Thereafter, there were fairly substantial
differences between the GFS/ECMWF regarding daytime temps next
Thursday and Friday. The more bullish precip potential suggested via
the GFS yielded markedly cooler temps, while the lower PoP potential
ECMWF yielded continued well above normal temps. For this forecast
issuance, have opted for the middle ground for high temps late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA east to southeast of KTUS ending this evening.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA east of KTUS Saturday afternoon. Brief wind
gusts near 35-40 kts with the strongest tstms. Otherwise, clear
skies W-NW of KTUS into Saturday afternoon. East to south of KTUS,
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL into this evening becoming SCT-BKN
clouds above 15k ft AGL later tonight into Saturday morning. FEW-SCT
clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL Saturday afternoon. Surface wind variable
in direction mainly less than 12 kts except few gusts near 20 kts
early this evening and Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms southeast of Tucson ending
this evening. Expect isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening east of Tucson followed by dry conditions areawide Sunday
into Monday. Increasing moisture will provide better thunderstorm
chances especially during the latter part of the upcoming week.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures will prevail at least into the
middle of next week. 20-foot winds Sunday afternoon mainly from the
west with gusts of 20-25 mph. 20-foot winds terrain driven mostly
less than 15 mph at other times except near thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION...Hardin
FIRE WEATHER...Hardin

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson