Arizona, 2018Drought in Arizona, July 1 to 31, 2018
July 1 to 31, 2018 · NWS TWC · 11 events in 11 counties and zones
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, began to decrease in areal coverage across parts of southeast Arizona toward the end of July. By month's end, the extreme drought was limited to the western halves of Pima and Pinal counties and far northern sections of Graham and Greenlee counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 11 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 11
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, began to decrease in areal coverage across parts of southeast Arizona toward the end of July. By month's end, the extreme drought was limited to the western halves of Pima and Pinal counties and far northern sections of Graham and Greenlee counties.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 9:03 PM MST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 9:03 PM MST, 2 hours 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
903 PM MST Sat Jun 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions to start the week. There is a
slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly near the
New Mexico border Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm coverage will
then slowly expand westward to include Tucson later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...What a difference a day makes where last evening we
were issuing warnings and tonight nary a cloud in the sky. This is
thanks to the dry westerly flow that developed resulting in only a
quarter of the moisture in the atmosphere this evening compared to
yesterday. Despite the abundant sunshine, afternoon high
temperatures were 2-3 degrees cooler than average for the day with a
slightly cooler air mass overhead. With that slightly cooler air
mass, clear skies, light winds and lack of moisture, low
temperatures tonight will also be cooler than average. That is well
covered in the current forecast of Sunday morning low temps 2-9
degrees cooler than average for July 1st. Another dry day expected
Sunday with highs near average before monsoon 2018 begins to very
slowly make itself known through the upcoming week. That is described
in better detail in the previous discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
Mostly clear through the period. SFC wind light and terrain driven
overnight and remaining generally less than 12 kts Sunday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected areawide through Sunday
then a slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible along the New
Mexico border each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. Any
thunderstorms that develop during that period would be mainly dry
with minimal rainfall and gusty outflow winds. Beyond that,
thunderstorm chances gradually expand westward to include the Tucson
metro and vicinity Thursday and Friday. 20-foot winds through the
forecast period will be generally less than 15 mph and diurnal in
nature into next week other than in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM MST Sat Jun 30 2018/
With weak troughiness through much of the intermountain west and
strong high pressure near the west coast, we've gained an increasing
westerly component to our flow at most levels. This has crashed our
precipitable water from 1.25 inches to under 3/4 of an inch in 24
hours, with surface dew points dropping from the 50s to the 20s and
30s. This reaches all the way into most of Sonora, with the nearest
convection at this hour associated with the deep moisture immediately
southeast of our area in Chihuahua. With this kind of flow, any
outflows from that area will not make it to SE AZ for the time being.
We'll be too dry for thunderstorms to start the new week.
By Monday, the flow will weaken considerably before reversal later
in the week. We may also start to see some shallow surge activity
from the northern Gulf of California as early as Monday night;
enough to start reversing the dew point trend but not deep enough
for storms.
The middle of the week will be marked by high pressure building
through much of the east, central to southern plains, and the
desert southwest as jet activity retreats fully into Canada.
Deeper moisture will start seeping back in from the south as early
as Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some mountain convection
possible Wednesday afternoon.
With most operational and ensemble model trends reconsolidating
high centers north to northeast of our area the second half of
the week, we should open up even more to southerly and easterly
flows regimes. This will tend to engage both main sources of
moisture for our area (Gulf of California and Gulf of Mexico),
with easterly wave activity across southern Texas and northern
Mexico. After storm activity increases up the Sierra Madres
during the week (with Sonora getting busy again), the initial
impulse embedded in the easterlies should push into Chihuahua by
Thursday night, then Sonora later Friday. Give or take 12 hours
and a few hundred miles. GEFS plumes suggest precipitable water
back near or above 1.25 inches by Friday afternoon, and NAEFS mean
precipitable water near climatology (also about 1.25 inches).
The first 2 or 3 days of July will be dry, but that won't last,
as the number of processes available to bring in more moisture
increase through the week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
PUBLIC...Cerniglia/Meyer
AVIATION....Cerniglia/Zell
FIRE WEATHER...Zell
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Drought, Western Pima County
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Western Pima County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued throughout July across the western halves of Pima and Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation; central Greenlee County; and far northern Graham County including parts of the San Carlos Apache Tribal lands.
Despite rainfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches, which were 50 to 200 percent of normal, soil moisture readings remained low--below the 10th percentile, and in parts of Tohono O'odham Nation, below the 5th percentile. Wildfire activity was held at bay by the rain, but levels in the San Carlos Reservoir remained at less than 1 percent of capacity throughout July.
Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued throughout July across the western halves of Pima and Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation; central Greenlee County; and far northern Graham County including parts of the San Carlos Apache Tribal lands.
Despite rainfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches, which were 50 to 200 percent of normal, soil moisture readings remained low--below the 10th percentile, and in parts of Tohono O'odham Nation, below the 5th percentile. Wildfire activity was held at bay by the rain, but levels in the San Carlos Reservoir remained at less than 1 percent of capacity throughout July.
Drought, South Central Pinal County
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- South Central Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued throughout July across the western halves of Pima and Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation; central Greenlee County; and far northern Graham County including parts of the San Carlos Apache Tribal lands.
Despite rainfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches, which were 50 to 200 percent of normal, soil moisture readings remained low--below the 10th percentile, and in parts of Tohono O'odham Nation, below the 5th percentile. Wildfire activity was held at bay by the rain, but levels in the San Carlos Reservoir remained at less than 1 percent of capacity throughout July.
Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued throughout July across the western halves of Pima and Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation; central Greenlee County; and far northern Graham County including parts of the San Carlos Apache Tribal lands.
Despite rainfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches, which were 50 to 200 percent of normal, soil moisture readings remained low--below the 10th percentile, and in parts of Tohono O'odham Nation, below the 5th percentile. Wildfire activity was held at bay by the rain, but levels in the San Carlos Reservoir remained at less than 1 percent of capacity throughout July.
Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued throughout July across the western halves of Pima and Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation; central Greenlee County; and far northern Graham County including parts of the San Carlos Apache Tribal lands.
Despite rainfall amounts from 1 to 3 inches, which were 50 to 200 percent of normal, soil moisture readings remained low--below the 10th percentile, and in parts of Tohono O'odham Nation, below the 5th percentile. Wildfire activity was held at bay by the rain, but levels in the San Carlos Reservoir remained at less than 1 percent of capacity throughout July.
Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 30, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued across Santa Cruz, far southwest Cochise, portions of southeast Pinal and southeast Pima, central Graham and northern Greenlee counties, including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita, Huachuca and White Mountains for much of July. Six to eight inches of rain fell in the White Mountains of northern Greenlee County during July. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts ranged from 1.5 to 4 inches, which were 50 to 150 percent of normal for the month. Much of this rain fell during the last week of the month and was sufficient enough to raise soil moisture levels to the 10 to 20 percentile range and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by month's end.
The human caused Cumero Fire, which spread into southeast Pima County from Mexico, was dowsed by early July rainfall. Lightning ignited several wildfires (Bruno, Howard and Winchester) in Cochise County just east of the extreme drought area during the last week of July, but these were also quickly contained with the help of monsoonal moisture and rainfall.
Drought, Tucson Metro Area
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 30, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued across Santa Cruz, far southwest Cochise, portions of southeast Pinal and southeast Pima, central Graham and northern Greenlee counties, including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita, Huachuca and White Mountains for much of July. Six to eight inches of rain fell in the White Mountains of northern Greenlee County during July. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts ranged from 1.5 to 4 inches, which were 50 to 150 percent of normal for the month. Much of this rain fell during the last week of the month and was sufficient enough to raise soil moisture levels to the 10 to 20 percentile range and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by month's end.
The human caused Cumero Fire, which spread into southeast Pima County from Mexico, was dowsed by early July rainfall. Lightning ignited several wildfires (Bruno, Howard and Winchester) in Cochise County just east of the extreme drought area during the last week of July, but these were also quickly contained with the help of monsoonal moisture and rainfall.
Drought, Southeast Pinal County
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 30, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued across Santa Cruz, far southwest Cochise, portions of southeast Pinal and southeast Pima, central Graham and northern Greenlee counties, including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita, Huachuca and White Mountains for much of July. Six to eight inches of rain fell in the White Mountains of northern Greenlee County during July. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts ranged from 1.5 to 4 inches, which were 50 to 150 percent of normal for the month. Much of this rain fell during the last week of the month and was sufficient enough to raise soil moisture levels to the 10 to 20 percentile range and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by month's end.
The human caused Cumero Fire, which spread into southeast Pima County from Mexico, was dowsed by early July rainfall. Lightning ignited several wildfires (Bruno, Howard and Winchester) in Cochise County just east of the extreme drought area during the last week of July, but these were also quickly contained with the help of monsoonal moisture and rainfall.
Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 30, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued across Santa Cruz, far southwest Cochise, portions of southeast Pinal and southeast Pima, central Graham and northern Greenlee counties, including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita, Huachuca and White Mountains for much of July. Six to eight inches of rain fell in the White Mountains of northern Greenlee County during July. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts ranged from 1.5 to 4 inches, which were 50 to 150 percent of normal for the month. Much of this rain fell during the last week of the month and was sufficient enough to raise soil moisture levels to the 10 to 20 percentile range and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by month's end.
The human caused Cumero Fire, which spread into southeast Pima County from Mexico, was dowsed by early July rainfall. Lightning ignited several wildfires (Bruno, Howard and Winchester) in Cochise County just east of the extreme drought area during the last week of July, but these were also quickly contained with the help of monsoonal moisture and rainfall.
Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 30, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued across Santa Cruz, far southwest Cochise, portions of southeast Pinal and southeast Pima, central Graham and northern Greenlee counties, including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita, Huachuca and White Mountains for much of July. Six to eight inches of rain fell in the White Mountains of northern Greenlee County during July. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts ranged from 1.5 to 4 inches, which were 50 to 150 percent of normal for the month. Much of this rain fell during the last week of the month and was sufficient enough to raise soil moisture levels to the 10 to 20 percentile range and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by month's end.
The human caused Cumero Fire, which spread into southeast Pima County from Mexico, was dowsed by early July rainfall. Lightning ignited several wildfires (Bruno, Howard and Winchester) in Cochise County just east of the extreme drought area during the last week of July, but these were also quickly contained with the help of monsoonal moisture and rainfall.
Drought, Baboquivari Mountains
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 30, 6:00 PM MST
- Where
- Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued across Santa Cruz, far southwest Cochise, portions of southeast Pinal and southeast Pima, central Graham and northern Greenlee counties, including part of San Carlos Apache Tribal lands and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita, Huachuca and White Mountains for much of July. Six to eight inches of rain fell in the White Mountains of northern Greenlee County during July. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts ranged from 1.5 to 4 inches, which were 50 to 150 percent of normal for the month. Much of this rain fell during the last week of the month and was sufficient enough to raise soil moisture levels to the 10 to 20 percentile range and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by month's end.
The human caused Cumero Fire, which spread into southeast Pima County from Mexico, was dowsed by early July rainfall. Lightning ignited several wildfires (Bruno, Howard and Winchester) in Cochise County just east of the extreme drought area during the last week of July, but these were also quickly contained with the help of monsoonal moisture and rainfall.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Heat in Nevada, July 1 to 5, 20189 deaths · 2 events
- Heat in Vermont, July 1 to 6, 20184 deaths · 16 events
- Heat in Arizona, July 1 to 4, 20184 deaths · 4 events
- Excessive Heat in Pennsylvania, July 1 to 5, 20182 deaths · 12 events
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Iowa, July 1 to 28, 2018$2.9 million · 70 events
- Wildfire in Utah, July 1 to 31, 2018$25 million · 1 event
- Rip Current in California, July 1, 20181 death · 1 event
- Flooding in Minnesota, July 1 to 22, 2018$2.8 million · 5 events
- Damaging Wind in Texas, July 1, 2018$500,000 · 61 kt wind · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 1, 2018$125,000 · 56 kt wind · 8 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, July 1 to 3, 2018$140,000 · 1 in hail · 5 events
- Excessive Heat in Missouri, July 1, 20187 injured · 2 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 768432, 768466, 768468, 768469, 768470, 768478, 768489, 768490, 768491, 768492, 768493.