Arizona, 2018

Drought in Arizona, January 30 to 31, 2018

January 30 to 31, 2018 · NWS TWC · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 30, 9:14 AM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 30, 9:14 AM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
914 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Less wind today versus Monday. Otherwise, continued dry
conditions with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures as the
calendar changes from January to February. Expect near record high
temperatures today from Tucson west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High clouds are beginning to work their way into our forecast
area this morning as they drift south under the northerly flow
aloft. Latest sounding from Tucson this morning indicates this
northerly flow exists above 300 mb with east and southeasterly
flow below. Southeasterly winds 1 kft above the surface are
roughly 15 kts this morning but models indicate speeds weakening
through this afternoon as gradients relax. Subsequently, we are
expecting surface winds to be much lighter today and decrease into
the afternoon. The atmosphere continues to be bone dry as there has
been little change over the last 24 hours with PWs sitting at
0.16 inches.

Beyond this, temperatures will warm vigorously this afternoon
as highs flirt with record values once again. Low 80s look to be
a safe bet in the Tucson area with slightly warmer conditions in
the lower, western half of Pima County. For climatological
context, average highs this time of year in Tucson should only be
around 67. Unfortunately, these unseasonably warm conditions will
continue for the foreseeable future as high pressure remains in
control.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 31/18Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL to persist thru 31/12Z, with some
clearing possible btn 31/12Z and 31/18Z. SFC wind variable in
direction and less than 10 kts through the taf period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime
temperatures will continue into next week. Much lighter wind speeds
are expected today, with easterly flow continuing through the late
morning hours. Thereafter, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and
less than 15 mph into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures again today
from Tucson west. Below is a listing of record highs for January
30.

Locations              January 30
                       Record/Year
Tucson Intnl Airport    82 in 1987
Ajo                     82 in 1940
Organ Pipe Cactus N.M.  84 in 2003
Picacho Peak            78 in 2003
Kitt Peak               66 in 1987

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2018/...Much
less wind today as the pressure gradient has relaxed significantly
since yesterday morning. Well above normal upper level heights
and low level thickness values will result in the continuation of
well above normal high temperatures to close out January and begin
February. Record or near record high temperatures today from
Tucson west. See climate section below for further details.

Not much change in model thinking on the idea on spreading
moisture north late in the week across northern Mexico as a weak
upper low migrates off the Baja California coast. Confidence
remains low on the chance for light showers along the International
border east of Nogales Friday night into Saturday night. Again
something to watch. Otherwise no significant precipitation system
in the foreseeable future.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation

When
January 30, 12:00 PM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys

When
January 30, 12:00 PM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

Drought, Tucson Metro Area

When
January 30, 12:00 PM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When
January 30, 12:00 PM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties

When
January 30, 12:00 PM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When
January 30, 12:00 PM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

Drought, Baboquivari Mountains

When
January 30, 12:00 PM MST to January 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme drought (D3) category was reached in late January across southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains. The extreme drought category was also reached across the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Below normal precipitation occurred each month from August of 2017 through January of 2018. Soil moisture readings were well below normal and ranked below the 20th percentile.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, January 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 733653, 737642, 737643, 737645, 737646, 737647, 737648.