Arizona, 2018Drought in Arizona, February 1 to 28, 2018
February 1 to 28, 2018 · NWS TWC · 7 events in 7 counties and zones
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. While most of the area…
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 7
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 9:14 PM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 9:14 PM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected issuance time
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
914 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep our area dry with unseasonably
warm daytime temperatures into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern is defined this evening by a broad
trough across the northern states, a high amplitude upper ridge in
the Eastern pacific, and an upper low to the southwest of the Baja.
A very warm and dry airmass will continue to impact Southeast
Arizona through the period. In fact, afternoon high temperatures in
valley locations were generally in the mid 70s to low 80s
today...with similar conditions expected again Thursday.
The 01/00Z GFS still wobbles the upper low that resides SW of the
Baja toward the north the next couple of days. As this happens, it
tries to import some moisture northward along its eastern periphery
into Northern Sonora Mexico. Unfortunately, this moisture get
shunted east as it moves toward our neck of the woods...and will
likely not impact our forecast area.
In any event, expect warm and dry continues will persist for a
while. No updates necessary.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid thru 02/06Z.
SKC-FEW high clouds above 20k ft AGL, decreasing in coverage
overnight. SFC wind variable in direction and less than 10 kts
through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The pattern of dry weather continues, with
unseasonably warm daytime temperatures for at least the next 7 days
as high pressure dominates the region. 20-foot winds remain
generally terrain driven and less than 15 mph, strengthening
slightly for a short time Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...We're frozen in a pattern with a series of strong
winter systems maintaining a mean trough position through central
and eastern states, while a stubborn ridge lives near the west
coast. For our area, that means a very dry westerly to northwesterly
flow. Surface dew points in single digits on both sides of the zero
line, and precipitable water values under 1/5 of an inch.
Anomalously high height and thickness trends will help maintain
afternoon highs 10 to 12 degrees above average.
CPC was pointing out a very strong MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)
signal moving into the tropical west Pacific, but the current
pattern will block any attempts at a deep moisture plume through
Hawaii and and any subsequent pineapple express action. A record
warm January will give way to more of the same in February.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
Meyer/Howlett
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Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
Drought, Tucson Metro Area
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
Drought, Baboquivari Mountains
- When
- February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.
While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Drought in Oklahoma, February 1 to 28, 201848 events
- Drought in New Mexico, February 1 to 28, 201839 events
- Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Hawaii, February 1 to 6, 201823 events
- Drought in Florida, February 1 to 13, 201820 events
- Drought in Oklahoma, February 1 to 28, 201818 events
- Drought in Texas, February 1 to 21, 201817 events
- Drought in Alabama, February 1 to 13, 201817 events
- Drought in Louisiana, February 1 to 14, 201816 events
- Drought in Kansas, February 1 to 28, 201815 events
- Drought in Georgia, February 1 to 6, 201810 events
- Drought in Montana, February 1 to 28, 201810 events
- Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in West Virginia, February 1 to 2, 201810 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 742630, 742631, 742632, 742633, 742634, 742635, 742640.