Arizona, 2018

Drought in Arizona, February 1 to 28, 2018

February 1 to 28, 2018 · NWS TWC · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. While most of the area…

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 9:14 PM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 9:14 PM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected issuance time
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
914 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep our area dry with unseasonably
warm daytime temperatures into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern is defined this evening by a broad
trough across the northern states, a high amplitude upper ridge in
the Eastern pacific, and an upper low to the southwest of the Baja.

A very warm and dry airmass will continue to impact Southeast
Arizona through the period. In fact, afternoon high temperatures in
valley locations were generally in the mid 70s to low 80s
today...with similar conditions expected again Thursday.

The 01/00Z GFS still wobbles the upper low that resides SW of the
Baja toward the north the next couple of days. As this happens, it
tries to import some moisture northward along its eastern periphery
into Northern Sonora Mexico. Unfortunately, this moisture get
shunted east as it moves toward our neck of the woods...and will
likely not impact our forecast area.

In any event, expect warm and dry continues will persist for a
while. No updates necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 02/06Z.
SKC-FEW high clouds above 20k ft AGL, decreasing in coverage
overnight. SFC wind variable in direction and less than 10 kts
through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The pattern of dry weather continues, with
unseasonably warm daytime temperatures for at least the next 7 days
as high pressure dominates the region. 20-foot winds remain
generally terrain driven and less than 15 mph, strengthening
slightly for a short time Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...We're frozen in a pattern with a series of strong
winter systems maintaining a mean trough position through central
and eastern states, while a stubborn ridge lives near the west
coast. For our area, that means a very dry westerly to northwesterly
flow. Surface dew points in single digits on both sides of the zero
line, and precipitable water values under 1/5 of an inch.
Anomalously high height and thickness trends will help maintain
afternoon highs 10 to 12 degrees above average.

CPC was pointing out a very strong MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)
signal moving into the tropical west Pacific, but the current
pattern will block any attempts at a deep moisture plume through
Hawaii and and any subsequent pineapple express action. A record
warm January will give way to more of the same in February.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

Meyer/Howlett

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

Drought, Tucson Metro Area

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

Drought, Baboquivari Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout February across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, as well as the White Mountains of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties.

While most of the area received between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation from one storm system in mid February, overall soil moisture readings only improved slightly, and generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile. Prior to the precipitation event, two human-caused wildfires burned in rural areas. The Altar Fire burned northwest of Sasabe, on Mildred Peak, and consumed 3400 acres. The Knob Hill Fire burned 2900 acres just outside of the extreme drought area near Saint David.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 742630, 742631, 742632, 742633, 742634, 742635, 742640.