Arizona, 2018Drought in Arizona, August 1 to 14, 2018
August 1 to 14, 2018 · NWS TWC · 3 events in 3 counties and zones
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January and peaked in late May through early July, continued to decrease in areal coverage across parts of southeast Arizona during August. Extreme drought continued through August in northern sections of Graham County and a small portion of northwest Greenlee County, but was downgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) in western and central Pima…
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January and peaked in late May through early July, continued to decrease in areal coverage across parts of southeast Arizona during August. Extreme drought continued through August in northern sections of Graham County and a small portion of northwest Greenlee County, but was downgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) in western and central Pima County and south central Pinal County.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 9:17 PM MST, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 9:17 PM MST, 2 hours 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
917 PM MST Tue Jul 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...While thunderstorms will be less prevalent across
southeast Arizona through tonight, deep moisture will allow for
better thunderstorm chances the remainder of the work week and into
the weekend. High temperatures will remain near average for early
August.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A little drying combined with warm mid levels
created a hostile environment for thunderstorms today. The 00Z
KTWC sounding came in with 1.28 inches precipitable water, along
with a balmy -4 at 500mb. In the short term, there is less
available moisture immediately upstream in mid level / storm level
flow from New Mexico. As the high center reconsolidates further
south and closer to our area, we'll tend to rely more on outflow
from higher terrain for significant valley storm activity. We'll
still have up periods, but overall we're slowing down to climo
levels for thunderstorm coverage for a bit.
For details on the potential of more active periods the next few
days, please see the previous discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/06Z.
A slight chance of -SHRA near the border overnight. Expect more
typical mountain TSRA development Wednesday afternoon, especially
east of KTUS. Normal diurnal wind trends are expected outside of
strong gusty thunderstorm outflows. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...While thunderstorm coverage will be less than
average through tonight, moisture will remain in place into early
next week with daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast.
Humidities will recover well each night and only drop to around
20-30 percent each afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm induced
gusts, expect typical diurnal trends with speeds of 15 mph or
less.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Fairly quiet across southeast Arizona this
afternoon as warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500 mb) so far
inhibiting any cloud growth that tries to get going. Given enough
lift, the warm temperatures could be overcome. The best mechanisms
to accomplish this are orographic lift from the mountains and a
weak disturbance shown on satellite right along the US/Mex border.
This is where highest PoPs will be focused into this evening
although overall we will be much less active than Monday.
The warm temperatures aloft result from the close proximity of
high pressure from 300-500 mb which began elongating southward at
300 mb and will continue to do so through Thursday. That said, a
disturbance subtly evident over Utah rotating clockwise around the
high could cool temperatures aloft just enough to increase
thunderstorm chances again the next couple of days.
High pressure will gradually reorient east-west and shift far
enough north to generally put southeast Arizona in a more
favorable pattern for thunderstorms Friday into early next week.
High temperatures will hover around average for early August.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
Meyer/KD
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Drought, Western Pima County
- When
- August 1, 12:00 AM MST to August 14, 11:00 AM MST
- Where
- Western Pima County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued through early August across western Pima and south central Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation. Rainfall amounts for the month ranged from 0.50 to 3 inches. This was sufficient to raise soil moisture levels above the 20th percentile for the first time since 2017 and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by the middle of the month.
Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation
- When
- August 1, 12:00 AM MST to August 14, 11:00 AM MST
- Where
- Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued through early August across western Pima and south central Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation. Rainfall amounts for the month ranged from 0.50 to 3 inches. This was sufficient to raise soil moisture levels above the 20th percentile for the first time since 2017 and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by the middle of the month.
Drought, South Central Pinal County
- When
- August 1, 12:00 AM MST to August 14, 11:00 AM MST
- Where
- South Central Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category) continued through early August across western Pima and south central Pinal counties including the Tohono O'odham Nation. Rainfall amounts for the month ranged from 0.50 to 3 inches. This was sufficient to raise soil moisture levels above the 20th percentile for the first time since 2017 and cause these areas to be upgraded to the severe drought (D2 category) by the middle of the month.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 778830, 778905, 778906.