A weak low tracked ESE across the northern gulf into the eastern gulf. Warm moist air overrunning cold air at the surface caused measurable snow to much of the northern and central Panhandle.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A weak low tracked ESE across the northern gulf into the eastern gulf. Warm moist air overrunning cold air at the surface caused measurable snow to much of the northern and central Panhandle. Amounts were highly variable. No damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 6, 3:07 PM AKST, 5 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKST Tue Mar 6 2018
.SHORT TERM...Isolated to scattered snow showers have fallen
across the panhandle today. Portions of the southern inner
channels and POW Island had some rain mixed in as well. Looking
ahead to our next big weather maker, the current satellite imagery
shows a front moving across the western gulf. Overnight expect a
new low center to develop over the northern gulf and help to
intensify the front. Greatest forcing for this system looks to
be along and just ahead of an upper level trough/vort max, to
occur mainly over Yakutat, the north/central outer coast and into
Juneau. Snow is expected to move into Yakutat through this evening
then spread across the panhandle through Wednesday. Have Warning
level rates expected for Yakutat and Pelican while Gustavus,
Juneau and Sitka will see periods of Advisory level rates. While
the duration of the event encompasses approx 21hrs, the rates were
the deciding factor for warning vs. advisory. Please see the
latest winter weather statement for more details for each area.
The timing of the front is slightly later than previously
forecasted. The NAM was the fastest with the best forcing while
the GFS was delayed to move precip in until closer to early
Thursday. The Canadian model was closer to the NAM solution and
the ECMWF is in between. Have gone with the consensus of moving
the front through shortly after midnight in the Juneau area with
the best snowfall rates just prior, this was closer to the NAM
solution.
NWLY flow returns Thurs post-front and will allow for a brief
break in the weather. However the next front will begin to move
into the western portion of our AOR going into Thursday evening.
This will be another one to watch, but looks warmer with a longer
fetch of moisture from the S-SW.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/
Models seem to be slowly coming into better agreement on system
coming into the gulf for Thu and Thu night. Looks like a low
pressure wave will develop SW of Kodiak Island Thu morning and
move NNE into the NW gulf by late Thu afternoon as a fairly strong
low. Model timing, track, and intensity with this system has been
somewhat variable for past few days but they seem to be trending
toward the above idea. Timing of the associated front is a bit
faster in latest model runs but lack of consistency makes any
adjustments questionable at this point. Ended up making mostly
smaller changes, except did bring in higher POPs Thu-Fri to
handle this system. Further out, pretty much left the forecast as
is.
For the Thu-Fri period, with a bit faster system movement, looks
like milder air will move in a bit quicker. Raised temps several
degrees, especially over the N, for Thu and Thu night. Have more
mention of rain in the forecast as well. GFS keeps 1000-850 mb
thicknesses lower than the other models, but think it may be too
cold in the boundary layer especially Thu night given the SE low
level flow. Did speed up precip moving into the area during this
time.
After Fri, with large scale trof developing over the EPAC, will
need to watch for systems coming in from the S during the weekend
and early next week. Models hint at the upper trof sliding
gradually E during early next week, but differ on how fast it
moves.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST
Wednesday for AKZ017.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 3 AM AKST
Thursday for AKZ025.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM AKST
Wednesday for AKZ022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight AKST
Wednesday night for AKZ023.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM AKST
Wednesday for AKZ020.
MARINE...None.
&&
Ferrin/RWT
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau2 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Storm total snow measured at the Yakutat Airport and Downtown was 7.0 inches in 12 hours. Impact was snow removal.
Storm total snow measured at Pelican was 8 inches in 12 hours. Impact was snow removal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 738645, 738646.