High pressure over the western portion of Alaska combined with a low over the Panhandle to cause a tight gradient over Southcentral. A front passing through the Chugach mountains increased the gap flow to warning level through northerly gaps and into Valdez.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
High pressure over the western portion of Alaska combined with a low over the Panhandle to cause a tight gradient over Southcentral. A front passing through the Chugach mountains increased the gap flow to warning level through northerly gaps and into Valdez.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 4:37 AM AKST, 43 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... Clear skies prevail across much of the southern mainland this morning as a disturbance diving out of the interior helps to dig the longwave trough along the Alcan border and amplify the upper level pattern. Cold air advection behind this feature is aiding in the development of a strong outflow wind regime across Southcentral Alaska, with additional support from a 140 kt jet streak sliding east across the mainland as it moves down the back side of the trough. This is producing gale force winds with storm force gusts over portions of the North Gulf Coast, along with warning level winds through Thompson Pass. Quiet weather prevails across the eastern Bering beneath a stout high amplitude ridge which extends from the subtropical Pacific all the way to the North Pole. Farther west, a powerful 948 mb low is tracking parallel to the Kamchatka coast, with an occluded front moving into the Central Aleutians accompanied by rain and southerly gale force winds. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in excellent synoptic agreement through the end of the work week as the Bering ridge shifts eastward to the mainland, eventually bringing an end to the outflow winds across Southcentral. This will allow the front to continue its eastward push and reach the southwest coast by Thursday, with showery southwest flow setting up in its wake. Primarily utilized higher resolution NAM guidance to better capture localized outflow wind effects. && .AVIATION... PANC...Gusty north winds should diminish somewhat this morning as the most favorable upper level support moves off to the east. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although ceilings may briefly fall below 5000 ft prior to 15z as an upper level disturbance departs into the Gulf. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Strong offshore winds will dominate today along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound as Arctic air continues to advect southward on the back side of the trough/low dropping into the eastern Gulf. As a strong upper level ridge approaches from the west, the upper level jet will slide eastward, with the strongest winds and downward motion shifting to eastern Prince William Sound. A high wind warning is in effect for Thompson Pass through this afternoon for gusts up to 80 mph, but there may be a few peak wind gusts of similar strength which make it down into Valdez. While the bulk of wind will be along the coast, there will be some wind today along the Alaska Range as well as across the Copper River Basin. Winds will very slowly diminish from west to east tonight through Thursday as the ridge builds in. Temperature will vary significantly across short distances, with warmer temperatures where the wind causes vertical mixing and colder temperatures where the absence of wind allows for radiational cooling. A lighter wind regime and upper level ridge position appears to favor very cold temperatures Thursday night. However, it looks like mid to high clouds will move into western areas (Cook Inlet to Susitna Valley corridor). This will help moderate temperatures just a bit, though they will still bottom out in single digits for most areas. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA... Ridging continues to build in over southwest Alaska from the Bering which has cleared out much of the cloud cover and allowed for temps to plummet. As the ridge axis shifts east of southwest Alaska late tonight warm air will begin to be ushered in from the south. This will be followed by a front moving in over the coast Thursday afternoon which will bring short lived blowing snow conditions to the Kuskokwim Delta coast. The front will then track eastward as it breaks apart. Friday afternoon another ridge will build in over the area from the Bering. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS... The main feature over the Bering and Aleutians is a low in the western Bering and its associated front that stretches across the central Bering and Aleutians. This system is pulling up enough warm air that the majority of precip associated with the front is rain. The front will slowly track east through Thursday making it to the eastern Bering Thursday afternoon before heading over mainland Alaska. Behind the front, cold westerly flow will dominate until ridging builds in Friday afternoon. Behind the ridging, another system will approach the western Aleutians bringing more rain to the islands. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... At the onset of the forecast period, there is a closed low south of the AKPEN with a ridge axis upstream bisecting the the Chain and spanning into NE Russia. As time elapses, the ridge axis will shift eastward and an Arctic vortex will descend from Siberia and into the Bering. By Day 6 (Monday March 5th) a new ridge will build in from the North Pacific bringing warmer temperatures to the Western and Central Aleutians. The GFS has maintained decent run to run continuity with the major synoptic features. Very confident in the progressive nature of the pattern. West Domain (Bering Sea, Aleutians and SW AK) sensible weather highlights include gale force winds across portions of the Bering in association with the frontal boundary Saturday and Sunday. East Domain sensible weather highlights include a batch of wintry precipitation for Kodiak and the southern Kenai Saturday March 3rd that will move across the Gulf Of Alaska later Saturday and Sunday but will remain south of Anchorage. Monday a new batch of wintry weather is anticipated to impact Kodiak with moisture working its way up Cook Inlet later Monday. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131 MARINE...Storm Warning 130 178 411 Gale Warning 119 120 121 125 127 128 129 131 132 136 137 138 150 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 180 181 185 351 352 412 413 414 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 139 160 && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB AVIATION...CB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK LONG TERM...PJS
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds peaked through Thompson Pass at 7:20 a.m. at 83 mph with 102 mph gusts.
Valdez ASOS peaked later in the evening, beginning about 7 p.m. The peak at the airport was 72 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 742268, 742269.