A slow moving complex of thunderstorms tracking west to east across Central Alabama produced locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in Jefferson and Walker Counties.
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The episode as NWS BMX wrote it up.
A slow moving complex of thunderstorms tracking west to east across Central Alabama produced locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in Jefferson and Walker Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 8:51 AM CST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 951 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 .UPDATE... Morning Update. && .SHORT TERM... The western half of our forecast area remains busy this Monday morning as a complex of showers with a few thunderstorms continues to affect our southwest counties with a flood advisory in effect until 10:30 am due to continued rainfall over this area as the activity slowly moves south-southeast. More recently convection has developed across much of Tuscaloosa County and this activity is drifting southeast and starting to affect western Jefferson County. A convective complex over northwest Alabama is also sliding southeast and is affecting portions of Marion/Winston/Walker counties. We expect this activity to continue to move southeast and likely affect the Birmingham metro area by early this afternoon. An upper level shortwave is depicted by most numerical models across the Mid South region and this will move southeast across the area through tonight. Toward the surface, high pressure is near the Virginia/West Virginia border and is weakly influencing the local area while a surface front extended from northwest Texas east across Oklahoma and northeast into Missouri and Illinois. The 16/12Z BMX sounding contains a moist airmass through much of the vertical profile yielding a precipitable water (PWAT) value of 2.01 inches. Relatively light and variable winds are prevalent through the vertical column with weak flow aloft. The modified sounding for a forecast high of 92 degrees yields just over 3,000 J/kg of surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) but the moist vertical profile only produces downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values just over 6000 J/kg. Overall, expect heavy rain to be the primary concern today as is already ongoing across our southwest counties. Localized flooding will be possible in urban and poor drainage/low lying areas with slow storm motions and high PWAT values. CAPE values will be high enough to support stronger storm updrafts and gusty winds can not be ruled out with the more robust convection. Activity is expected to weaken after sunset tonight but shower activity will likely linger with highest potential over our south and central counties tonight. 05 .LONG TERM... Tuesday through Sunday. On Tuesday, we are looking at a low pressure system over Quebec moving eastward and dragging a front across the northern half of Eastern Conus. However, across the southern half of Eastern Conus, the upper flow will be much weaker and not favorable for pushing a front completely through Alabama. This is not surprising since it is July, but the front could make it into the northern half of the state before stalling. Rain chances will be well above normal for Tuesday with warm temperatures, lots of available moisture, and a front nearby. For Wednesday, we should see a north/south orientation for precipitation chances and dew points with a lingering stalled boundary somewhere likely across Central Alabama and high pressure building in from the north. For overnight lows on Thursday morning, readings should not be quite as warm and not as muggy with a surface ridge across much of Eastern Conus and a stalled boundary remaining across the southern part of Central Alabama with weak flow aloft. Rain chances will be somewhat lower for Thursday with not as much focus and more diurnally driven activity. By Friday, we move into a tricky upper northwest flow pattern. Our previous surface front should be taken back northward as a warm front with low level moisture increasing behind it and higher dew points returning to the state. Going with mainly chance pops as we head into next weekend. Confidence is low with extended guidance not agreeing on how deep upper troughing will become over Eastern Conus along with the resulting intensity of any disturbances that may be flowing through this upper troughing ahead of another approaching surface front by the end of next weekend. 08 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. Pretty widespread MVFR/IFR stratus this morning. These will likely hold firm until 14 to 15Z and could potentially hand on a little longer. Still think that heating will begin fairly quickly and we will see scattered to numerous showers and storms once again this afternoon and early evening. Given the fact that once again the convection will be determined on the mesoscale features will still only continue with VCTS this afternoon and evening. Additional MVFR ceilings will be possible tonight. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Above normal coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms is expected through at least Tuesday as a weak front moves towards the area. Localized fog will be possible each morning where rainfall occurs during the previous afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 90 72 90 71 90 / 70 50 70 40 30 Anniston 90 72 89 72 90 / 70 50 70 50 30 Birmingham 91 74 90 73 91 / 70 60 70 50 30 Tuscaloosa 94 73 92 74 92 / 80 60 70 40 40 Calera 91 72 90 73 91 / 70 70 80 50 40 Auburn 89 72 88 73 90 / 70 70 80 50 60 Montgomery 92 74 91 75 92 / 70 60 80 50 60 Troy 90 74 89 73 91 / 70 40 80 50 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Bibb...Dallas...Greene...Hale...Marengo...Perry... Pickens...Sumter...Tuscaloosa. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1009 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 ALZ011>015-017>050-171815- Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee- Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega- Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa- Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon- Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour- 1009 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. .DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not expected at this time. 05
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
738 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0832 PM HEAVY RAIN EASTDALE MALL 32.38N 86.21W
07/15/2018 M2.33 INCH MONTGOMERY AL TRAINED SPOTTER
2.33 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED BY
METEOROLOGIST NEAR EASTDALE MALL IN
MONTGOMERY.
&&
05The Birmingham radar (KBMX), 44 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:57 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding reported along Old Rock Creek Road and in the city of Hueytown.
Police reported several roads flooded and impassable with a few vehicles totally submerged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 774599, 774600.