Wisconsin, 2017

Cold in Wisconsin, November 16, 2017

November 16, 2017 · NWS MKX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A homeless man died from hypothermia in the city of Kenosha.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.

A homeless man died from hypothermia in the city of Kenosha.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 15, 11:33 PM CST, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 15, 11:33 PM CST, 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1133 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.UPDATE...Thin spots continue to increase and have shifted south
into southern Wisconsin and also linger in the northeast. Appears
stratus is turning more cellular in nature, but large shield
remains over northern and central WI. Still think this may shift
southward for a time into southern WI during the late night before
more widespread clearing develops Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Varying ceilings between MVFR and VFR
expected through the late night as stratus beginning to thin and
break up in spots. Gusty northwest winds will slowly diminish
through mid-morning Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 953 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017)

UPDATE...Widespread stratus beginning to thin in parts of far
western Wisconsin as well parts of the northeast and east
central. This trend may continue as cold air advection begins to
wane and short wave ridging begins to spread in from the west.
Blustery WNW winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts as high as 30
knots will continue next few hours before diminishing. Overnight
temperatures look in good shape.

MARINE...Few gusts reaching Gale Warning levels off shore. Racine
Reef observation reported gust to 35 knots around 03z. Few more
gale gusts are possible through the late night but mostly wind
gusts are expected to remain at or below 33 knots. May yet upgrade
to Gale Warning in next few hours. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through Thursday morning due to gusty WNW winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 544 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017)

UPDATE...Low clouds will linger for much of the night. Increasing
subsidence and low level drying should result in partial clearing
Thursday morning with mid-high clouds already expected to stream
into the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong, gusty
northwest winds will continue this evening, then slowly diminish.
Surge of colder air will result in temperatures falling into the
low to mid 30s during the evening.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...MVFR ceilings should overspread far
southeast Wisconsin in the next hour or two. Low level cold air
advection behind cold front will result in low clouds over
southern WI for much of the night. Low clouds may linger into
Thursday morning before clearing. Gusty northwest winds will
continue overnight but slowly diminish.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 227 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Rest of this afternoon into Thursday - Confidence...Medium to
High Cold advection stratus wrapping southeast into srn WI
overtaking any brief clearing due to dry slot. Lingering rain
shifts out by mid/late afternoon. Low level RH progs show that
this cloud cover should hang around into late tonight or early
Thursday. Surface pressure gradient remains tight into Thursday
morning then high pressure builds in from the west for the
afternoon easing the wind field.

Friday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium...

A strong trough moves across the northern plains and becomes
more negatively tilted as it moves east of Wisconsin by Saturday.
The GFS and Canadian have continued the trend toward the slower
and slightly weaker trough.

A surface low will intensify, especially just east of the lake
Huron area Saturday. Models are more in line, but the ECMWF and
now the canadian is a still a little more south in the
cyclogenesis.

Warm air advection develops Thursday night and begins to bring
more moisture into the region. The models are still dry Thursday
night, with light rain spreading in friday, especially afternoon.
By the time this occurs, precipitation type should be rain. There
is some elevated CAPE around 150 Joules/kg on the GFS Friday
evening.

It will be windy, both ahead of, and especially behind the low,
any wind advisories are unlikely.

Possibility of snow accumulations in our area is low, as by the
time the cold air moves in behind the low, the precipitation is
diminishing.

By Sunday afternoon a surface ridge will be moving across
Wisconsin, diminishing the winds.

LONG TERM...

Monday Through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium...

A somewhat cyclonic northwest flow Sunday night becomes more
zonal Monday across southern Wisconsin. The ECMWF has a quicker
and stronger shortwave in the northern stream over south central
Wisconsin that drops into the Great Lakes region Tuesday. The GFS
is much weaker with this feature, with the canadian more of a
compromise.

A south flow begins sunday night and Monday, with a surface low
moving north of the lake Superior region Monday night. This then
brings some cold air advection into southern Wisconsin, quicker
and stronger on the ECMWF Tuesday.

With the track of the low so far north, little precipitation is
indicated.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

A cold front continues to shift to the east
of WI with still some lingering rain across the northeast cwa.
Lighter showers in the southeast. A window of breaks in the
overcast noted between dry slot and incoming cold advection
stratus from the northwest. Should see more breaks in the clouds
for Thursday as a ridge of high pressure edges closer and scours
out some of the low level RH/MVFR cloud deck.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory in good shape. Wind shift has
occurred with passage of cold front. WNW winds will be gusty with
the higher waves shifting more towards the open waters due to the
offshore component.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...MBK
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Hentz
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 15, 4:36 PM CST, 7 hours 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
436 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-162145-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
436 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin, and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-162145-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
436 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for brisk northwest to
north winds causing higher waves toward open waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

The Small Craft Advisory continues until noon Thursday.

Winds and waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels
again Friday into Sunday. Gale force northwest winds are possible
Saturday and Saturday night.

Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Cold/Wind Chill, Kenosha

When
November 16, 12:00 AM CST to 10:00 AM CST
Where
Kenosha forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
County Official
Coordinates
42.573, -87.840 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Kenosha County Medical Examiner's Office reported hypothermia as the underlying cause of death of a homeless man. The man was found outside in a used car lot. Temperatures were in the 30s Fahrenheit.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Cold/Wind Chill, Kenosha2017-11-1649MaleOutside/Open AreasDirect

What these are

Cold/Wind Chill
Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Wisconsin in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, November 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 743864.