Texas, 2017

Drought in Texas, November 1 to 13, 2017

November 1 to 13, 2017 · NWS BRO · 1 event in 1 county or zone

The combination of prolonged above-average temperatures with scant precipitation continued to maintain a pocket of severe drought in Jim Hogg County, Texas.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

The combination of prolonged above-average temperatures with scant precipitation continued to maintain a pocket of severe drought in Jim Hogg County, Texas.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 11:28 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 11:28 PM CST, 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1228 AM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...06z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Broken to overcast skies will continue overnight and
into Wednesday. Low stratus will send our categories down into the
MVFR range at times through the morning. Some improvement is then
expected by afternoon to VFR. Winds should remain mostly out of
the south with the exception of MFE. MFE has shifted northerly at
least briefly as a weak frontal boundary has moved through that
area. Winds should eventually shift back southerly by this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1025 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017/

DISCUSSION...Have updated the forecast to adjust pops and temps a
bit reflecting recent radar and ob trends. Have also opted to
remove the mention of locally heavy rainfall for the overnight
period as current radar trends indicate only fairly light to
moderate shower activity lingering over the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms continue to develop along a weak frontal
boundary draped across south Texas this afternoon. Some showers are
developing across the northeast portions of the CWA this afternoon
with most of the convection confined across the coastal waters. The
question is how much the convection across the western Gulf of
Mexico will influence rain chances across the Rio Grande valley and
northern ranchlands the rest of the afternoon into this evening.
Even with a 500mb shortwave trough across west TX moving eastward
tonight...believe most of the upper level support will be north of
the area. There is a small window for thunderstorms with heavy
rain...mainly across the coastal sections...this afternoon into
early this evening but once we lose diurnal heating the threat for
heavy rainfall diminishes rapidly. The weak frontal boundary will
move into the CWA tonight and this will provide a focus for
showers...mainly across the eastern portions of deep South TX...so
will keep a chance of rain for this evening. Rain chances will
diminish from west to east late tonight into Wednesday as the weak
frontal wave across south TX weakens and moves eastward. Will likely
continue to see showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters
tonight through Wednesday before drier air finally moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico Wed night.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Mid level zonal flow will
continue over Texas on Thursday. A 500mb ridge will build westward
and remain centered over northern Mexico and south Texas Friday
through early next week. Subsidence will increase across deep south
Texas as the ridge builds overhead. Low level moisture, mainly below
850mb, will keep dew points high for early November. Lingering
moisture may support very isolated showers near the coast Thursday.
Otherwise, rain-free conditions are anticipated through the period.
Day time and night time temperatures will remain well above
normal for the long term. High temperatures will generally range
from the mid 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s inland. The
combination of high dewpoints and the above normal temperatures
will lead to heat indices nearing and exceeding 100 degrees each
day. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s
to the lower 70s area-wide.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday night): Seas were near 6 feet
with east to southeast winds near 18 knots at buoy019 and near 3
feet with east to southeast winds near 16 knots at buoy002 this
afternoon. Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will prevail
across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight even with a weak frontal
boundary draped across the Texas coast. Will continue to mention
SCEC for the offshore waters tonight for high winds and seas. The
pressure gradient will weaken across the coastal waters Wednesday.
Light to moderate south to southeast winds will prevail across the
western Gulf Wednesday but will increase Wed night as low pressure
across the TX panhandle allows the pressure gradient to increase
across the lower TX coast.

Thursday through Saturday Night...Broad surface high pressure across
the Mid-Atlantic states extending into the Gulf of Mexico will
support moderate southeast wind and low seas through the period.
Isolated showers will be possible across the Gulf waters on Thursday
due to some lingering low level moisture. Otherwise, little to no
rain is expected through the weekend.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 4:00 PM CST, 8 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
500 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017

TXZ248>257-011000-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland
Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
500 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected. The heavier
storms will have the potential to produce some torrential rainfall
that may cause nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will be an elevated risk for rip currents along area
beaches through Thursday.

Above average temperatures with high humidity values late this
week and into the weekend will cause heat indices to rise into the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011000-
Laguna Madre from the Port of
Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-Laguna Madre from the Arroyo
Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX-Laguna Madre from 5 nm
north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-Coastal waters from Port
Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-Coastal waters from Baffin Bay
to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio
Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm-
500 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The winds and seas are expected to build some across the Lower Texas
Gulf waters as a cold front approaches the area. Southeasterly flow
will increase to 15 to 20 knots with wave heights approaching six
feet. Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Winds and seas will remain elevated through Wednesday afternoon
with wind gusts remaining between 15 to 20 knots and seas
occasionally up to six feet. Small craft should exercise caution.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Speece

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Jim Hogg

When
November 1, 12:00 AM CST to November 13, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Jim Hogg forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought Conditions persisted through mid November in south central Jim Hogg County. A batch of showers and thunderstorms on November 11th would temporarily improve the conditions by the issuance of the November 14th, 2017 Drought Monitor.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 729355.